Honda Classic Bets, Picks + DK Own
+ UFC Picks
In case you missed it, now that football has ended, the PGA LIVE CHAT has returned to Wednesdays on the video and podcast feed. Unlike previous years, I’m planning to have Tambo join me in studio as…
A) It makes for a better show
B) Tambo is a great resource from a high stakes perspective
We’re planning on going LIVE at 12pm ET each Wednesday so join live or just catch the replay. It’s all the same, except you can’t ask live questions if you aren’t watching live. Pretty self explanatory shit tbh. However, if you watch it after the fact, there’s no chance I can yell at you in real time.
Tambo was relieved my vitriol wasn’t directed at him this time.
Honda CONTENT HUB
I may have to allocate some budget just for Wednesdays, as Tambo and I talked through some things that hadn’t occurred to be earlier. So Svensson and Lahiri got added to the FRLs last second.
Louis Oosthuizen — I’ve seen everyone lose enough money on Louis over the years I figured I’d give it a shot this week. Like always, Louis rates out excellently across the board ion every key metric, so after a string of winners who’ve struggled getting across the finish line, why not Louis, finally?
Michael Thompson — Like with any pick this week, you need to embrace variance on the year’s most volatile course. That’s Thompson. A former winner at PGA National, and the water logged TPC Twin Cities, Thompson’s season results log are all over the place. He’s posted three missed cuts coupled with a T5/T11. He does his best putting work on Bermudagrass, and it’s about time he flipped his results on the greens after some early season struggles.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout — I think I’ve bet the South African in every event his played this year. Why change now when he’s yet to produce the ceiling putting results we know are lurking. Be this week, next week or the Valspar, I’m playing the long game on a player with four international wins since 2018.
UFC Vegas 49
Fresh off a very profitable week, Paul and Cody get the new studio treatment for this week’s UFC card. This remains the most profitable program on the network if you didn’t know.
First, go collect your FREE $100get it in two different ways.
Now take advantage of the revamped Prize Picks PGA game. They have full rounds, and even single hole over/under, along with Bear Trap odds. Tons of things to get down on if you want INSTANT ACTION!!!! And, as you know, I do. Here’s what I’m rolling out for Thursday…
They’re offering a line of 4.5 for all the players they have listed on holes 3 and 18 in each round. While these are the two easiest holes on the course, from a birdies or better perspective, No. 18 is giving us the best value on the over of 4.5. Per Fantasy National…
… the field only makes birdie or better 33.7% of the time on No. 18, but you can do basic math, you can then figure out how often the 4.5 is going to hit. Yes, far more than the under. Problem is, they’re only offering the best players in the field for that specific prop, so it’s a bit tricky to find the right ones.
Here’s the board for Thursday
Galaxy Brain: Can’t Beat The Vegas Books? Bet Vegas!
Keep things dry and you’re in contention this week. Now, there’s no perfect metric to measure who is going to effectively navigate a course like this, but with the Green In Regulation numbers so low, it stands to reason that the golfers giving themselves a shot at scoring will be the ones to thrive. Over their past 24 rounds, here are the players in the field this week that gain over half-a-stroke on average-to-difficult scoring courses in terms of GIR:
Let’s keep those average/difficult scoring qualifiers. I spoke in my column this week that driving distance is a bit more impactful than you’d think, so let’s take a look at some off-the-tee tandem stats. Of the 21 golfers listed above, 7 of them gain in BOTH driving distance AND fairways gained at least 50% of the time:
This is the point in the process in which throwing together a GPP lineup makes some sense. I’m using the above chart to find some value and using the first chart when deciding where I can throw my money around. Here’s one option that happens to spend every penny:
Not bad. Louie is a bet of mine and can be had at +1600 on DK at the moment. With no player currently priced in single digits in the betting market, it follows that the middle of the betting board could be live. Here is the recent course history for the Select Seven that made that final chart.
Vegas: Top-30 in 4 of the past 5 years
Swafford: Top-60 just once in the past 5 years
Lowry: T-36, T-21 and T-49 over his past 3 appearances at Honda
Watney: T-14 in 2017. He’s made the cut in his 3 appearances since, but his average finish has been 37th
Pereira: Yet to play
NeSmith: T-36 and T-38 over the past 2 seasons
Pan: Last 4 years, he has a pair of top 20’s … and a pair of missed cuts
Some ups, but mainly downs. Except for our guy Johnny Vegas. The most encouraging part of that track record … variety. Back in 2019, he was the 6th best putter for the week (+6.2 strokes) and in 2020, he was 3rd best off-the-tee (+3.6). I’m not guaranteeing he excels in both areas this week, but the fact that we’ve seen him do it is encouraging at a +4000 price tag on DK.
DraftKings Ownership (Guesses)
Looks to me like Berger’s clean bill of health will have him inching towards the top of the ownership now after seeming like a solid pivot early in the week. Ah well. I still like him.