NEW TOOL ALERT
Since I’ve developed my partnership with Underdog, the fine folks at Fantasy National decided to develop a tool to help us with round-by-round Pick’em games. If you were on the fence about getting a FN membership, this is just another new feature along with first access to the leaderboard APP (the only way to follow golf remotely at this point), and custom filters to get ya on board. And, this link get’s you 20% off.
JOIN: 20% OFF Tools and Stats at FantasyNational.com
And don’t forget about the Underdog PME Classic draft this week either…
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
BETS
WATCH: Heritage Final Bets & One and Done
Sahith Theegala — In “Fuck it, lets run it back week,” I found it pretty atypical Theegala was birdie divergent the first few rounds at The Masters. So I’ll lean more on my priors. Typically Theegala drive, chips, and putts well while his irons are like most my asset portfolio, swinging from gains to losses each week. I’m a big enough sucker to expect him to bounce back on his approach play this week to back him again.
Shane Lowry — Another week, another sacrifice to the money pit known as Shane Lowry. The Irishman saved his worst for Augusta National, losing an unfathomable 8 strokes with his putter. For perspective, that’s 16 strokes worse on the greens than Ludvig Aberg. In classic Lowry fashion he led all player who saw weekend in approach, and even when you take out his two hole outs and normalize those numbers, he still finished Top 10. In theory, the smaller greens should help mitigate his putting woes, which it looks like has been accomplished in the past. In six starts at Harbour Town, Lowry as only dropped strokes to the field one time which has led to Top 10 finishes in three of his past five appearances.
Ben An 66 (5 Places)— The short track circuit on TOUR is where Benny’s best results have come. Be it here, at Wyndham, Sony, PGA National, if An is going to challenge the top of the leaderboard it’s going to be a course like Harbour Town. Beyond his downward blip at THE PLAYERS, An’s ball striking has been on point. But I had to play the each way with him since if he has a two putt to win, he’ll probably miss.
Lucas Glover 75/1 (5 Places) — The Glove has reeled off three straight Top 25 following his T20 at Augusta while gaining on approach in 16 of his past 17 measured starts. The putting, horrendous. However, each of the past two times he’s gained more than one stroke on the greens he’s won the tournament. One of those being last year’s Wyndham Championship, the course with the strongest crossover to Harbour Town.
Kurt Kitayama 100/1 (5 Place) — Kitayama’s ball striking has been sneaky solid the past month while the chipping remains abhorrent. But stats aside, Kitayama’s at his bests when he can pin seek and on coastal adjacent courses. He remains locked in from the tee box (13th in field past 24 rounds) and sits 17th in opportunities gained over the past 50. Of course everything needs to go right with hi short game to have a chance at this, but at these odds, it’s worth a gamble on the upside he’s shown when his game starts trending upwards.
Tom Hoge 100/1 (5 Places)
You should always examine the rolling stats on a micro level before drawing all a conclusion. On the surface, Hoge ranks 55th in this field over the past 24 rounds off the tee. Which is greatly impacted by his career worst driving performance at Sawgrass. In reality, Hoge’s actually gaining OTT in five of his past six starts while being on the premier iron players and putters on tour in 2024. If he doesn’t chip himself out of the tournament this is the perfect course to take advantage of his skill set.
Corales Bets — Guys I’ve been wasting money on at the bottom of the DK pricing I now get a chance to waste money on in the outright market??? I consider this a gift.
HERITAGE NOTES
Field
Players: 69
Cut: NO
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Good Drives Gained
Strokes Gained Putting
Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
Past Champions
2023: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
Winning Resume
2023: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-17, playoff win over Jordan Spieth)
-His 63 on Saturday wasn't just his best of the week, it matched the best by anyone for the week (bogey-free with an eagle)
-5 of the top 10 for the week bled strokes in Prox 125-150, but nine of those 10 gained from 150-175 (Fitz did not gain on the field in any of the short iron buckets: 75-100, 100-125, or 125-150)
-Neither of the top 2 golfers after Thursday cashed top 45 checks for the week (betting a leader live after Round 1 isn't smart as it is -- and last year it REALLY wasn't)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13, playoff win over Patrick Cantlay)
-Saved his best for Sunday (66), joined Matt Kuchar as the only players in the field to card four rounds in the 60's for the week
-There are four Par 4's that measure 450-500 ... each of the top 9 finishers this season gained strokes on those holes
2021: Stewart Cink (-19, four clear of Emiliano Grillo and Harold Varner III)
-Consecutive 63's to open his week gave Cink all the breathing room he needed (second best round on Thursday and the best on Friday)
-Cink tied for the best SG;Par 3 mark while Grillo and HV3 finished T-5 in Par 3 strokes gained)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22, one clear of Abe Ancer and a tournament record)
-He fired a 65 or better in three of four rounds with his Round 1 65 proving to be critical (it was 4 better than second place Ancer an 6 better than T-3 Tyrell Hatton)
-12 of the top 13 finishers gained strokes off the tee. Brooks Koepka finished solo 7th despite breaking even on approach and losing SG:ARG thanks to leading the field in SG:OTT
2019: CT Pan (-12, one clear of Matt Kuchar)
-His 65 on Friday was his best round of the tournament and the best on the course that day (four better than runner-up Kuchar)
-Four of the top seven putters for the week cashed top 10 paychecks
COURSE
Course: Harbour Town GL
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,213
Greens: Poa trivialis overseed
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 202 yards
-They all play over par with Holes 4 and 14 holding two of the three highest double-or-worse rates on the course. The double+ rate on Hole 14 (8.2%) nearly matches the under par rate (9.9%)
-Matthew Fitzpatrick carded only three bogeys over the final three rounds ... two of them came on Par 3's
Par 4's (11): Average distance - 427 yards
-The three easiest holes on the course come on the front side, including the Par 4 9th (27.7% under par rate) that played easier than the longest Par 5 on property.
-Of the top 20 in SG:Par 4 at this event last season, 17 cashed a top 25 paycheck (including each of golfer that finished with at least a share of 5th place)
Par 5's (3): Average distance - 569 yards
-The two 5's on the front combine to see more birdies than pars and while #15 isn't difficult (fourth easiest on the course), it sees more bogeys and doubles or worse than the other two 5's combined
-Fitzpatrick birdied 10 of 12 Par 5's on his way to victory here last season, including a perfect 8-for-8 on the front nine 5's
Although there’s plenty of scoring at Harbour Town, 12 of the 18 hole splay over par annually. I decided to consult with the NEWWWW Over/Under tool at Fantasy National and hammer some overs on Bogeys on guys in the first round.
TAIL THIS EXACT ENTRY FOR THURSDAY HERE
NFL Props
Conner Allen and Ryan Noonan of Betsperts go over 2024 NFL props that still have value and discuss Jontay Porter being Banned from Life from the NBA. Noonan’s internet was horrible, so it’s worth watching just to see us make fun of him for a while. It drops Thursday but YOU can WATCH NOW
WATCH: NFL Draft Props, Bets | Jontay Porter Banned from Life from NBA
Prop Cheatsheet from the show
Prop No. 1 (McCarthy u5.5 -150)
Prop No. 2 (Troy Fautanu Pick No. 10 +1000)
Prop No. 3 (Bo Nix u32.5 +130)
Prop No. 4 (D. Turner o9.5 +100)
Prop No. 5 (Verse Pick No. 9 +400)
Weather
It’s nice to have a week where the weather appears optimal going in.
WIND TOWER: Harbour Town Yacht Basin
DRAFTKINGS
No need for a wave stack in great weather in a condensed field, so you can watch (or listen) Tambo and I go through our favorite plays and lineup constructions…
WATCH: RBC Heritage DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Final Bets, Weather | Rory Not to LIV
But here’s a quick list of the cheap plays I like in case you don’t care to watch…
Hoge
Kitayama
The GLOVE
Hadwin
Svensson
Dunlap
Detry
— PM