GENESIS HOT LINKS
Pat Mayo, Geoff Fienberg, and Tim Anderson preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2024 Genesis Invitational Picks, bets, and One and Done while providing their 2024 WM Phoenix Open Recap and LIV Vegas. Plus, Tiger woods returns.
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MAYO MOVIE CLUB
Two weeks from now, in what I assume will be the lowest watched/listened to show in PME history, is the Mayo Movie Club for Southland Tales. Is it a “good” movie? Absolutely not. It’s batshit insane, doesn’t quite make sense, and attempts to be a satire on anything it can think of relating to 2007. Some of which it kinda nails now we’re in 2024. Either way, it’s a gigantic home run cut at a movie and it’s a miss; I just happen to find it greatly fascinating. I mean, any flick with The Rock, Stifler, Buffy, Mandy Moore, that guy from Night Court, and the casts of SNL and Mad TV from the mid-1990s has to at least be seen. At least I think so.
Moving forward, I think I’ll actually pick movies people want to watch. But for now, here’s where you can watch Southland Tales. It’ll cost a buck or two to rent since no streaming service will pick it up. I can’t blame them tbh.
HOW TO WATCH SOUTHLAND TALES
If this absolutely isn’t for you (I think you should give it a chance), maybe Mayo Movie Club No. 1 is: Owning Mahowny. Too quote wikipedia: Bank employee Dan Mahowny (Philip Seymour Hoffman) seems like an honest man to his coworkers and loving girlfriend, Belinda (Minnie Driver). None of them realize that he is actually a compulsive gambler who steals from the bank's accounts to pay off his bookie, Frank (Maury Chaykin), and fund regular trips to casinos. Sleazy casino boss Victor (John Hurt) encourages Dan to amass more and more debt, until the missing money becomes hard to hide, and Dan's life spirals out of control.
It’s the most accurate portrayal of gambling addiction I’ve never seen on film. And, some nice person, simply uploaded it to YouTube. For Free. So, go revisit this one next.
MAYO MOVIE CLUB No. 1: Owning Mahowny
2024 Genesis Invitational
Field: 65 Players
Cut: Top 50 and Ties
Lineup Lock: Thursday, February 15
Defending Champ: Jon Rahm
The PGA had a wide lane to draw eyeballs with the NFL off-week and lead in to the Super Bowl. However, they didn’t count on the weather going full Hulk Hogan from Bash at the Beach and creating havoc. Or maybe rain signed with LIV? Saudi Arabia does enjoy themselves a good cloud seeding program.
Anyway, the Genesis needs to go off without a hitch for the TOUR to build any momentum into Major season. You wouldn’t think Riviera would be the most important of the last four events when Torrey, Pebble, and Phoenix were on the schedule, but they didn’t have Tiger Woods playing in the tournament.
They could have let Rahm, DJ, Brooks, and Bryson into the Pebble field gave it “SUPER DUPER SIGNATURE STATUS” and it wouldn’t come close to having the public interest like anything involving Tiger. Tiger’s become that friend the whole group loves but lives on the other side of the world. When they’re in town, no matter how briefly, you drop everything to go see them.
I suppose it’s good the TOUR still has the Tiger trump card to play in a pinch when it needs to be discussed on sports talk shows. Doesn’t bode well for the future of the sport so much when he’s the only thing outside of a Major championship which can draw any interest.
Those are future problems, though. Because Tiger IS in the field this week. As are the rest of the world’s non-LIV best in a condensed field at an amazing course. Of the edible players, only Justin Rose and FedEx Cup leader Matthieu Pavon are taking a pass. Presumably, Pavon is now so flush with cash he’s returning to France to purchase his dream, a long cigarette factory.
Since the field is pre determined by world rankings, FedEx cup standings, Aon Next 10 and 5 along with the Race to Dubai; one of the best sub plots for these limited field, signature events is who is getting the sponsor exemptions. Peter Malnati got one at Pebble. Why? I assume blackmail of some sort. This week, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris have received invitations. Since Justin Thomas has played his way back into all these events, Z and Scott almost seem like auto adds to any of these fields. Gary Woodland received one as well. And Tiger announced Chase Johnson as the recipient of the Charlie Sifford Memorial Exemption and he’ll be in the field.
While there are only 65 players in the field, Tiger demanded that there still be a cut. Only the Top 50 and ties will play the weekend in LA. It’s not much, but it’s something.
Anyone who likes no cut events are parents who think everyone should get a ribbon for participation. It’s outrageous, and makes tournaments feel like an exhibition. On the largest issues with LIV no one ever seems to bring up is the lack of cut; no consequence for terrible play. The closer the PGA gets to that the worse it’s going to be.
Golf becomes irrelevant again for a month until a minion blip for the Bay Hill/PLAYERS double in March, then it gets its weekend in April; so building some interest this week goes a long a way.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Driving Distance Gained
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
Course
Course: Riviera CC
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,322
Greens: Poa
Number of Bunkers: 58
Number of Water Hazards: 0
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 199 yards
All four Par 3's rank among the seven most par'd holes on the course. Two have a birdie rate north of 18% and the other two have a bogey rate over 17% ... if you're playing these holes even, you're just fine
Jon Rahm won this event last season ... he birdied every Par 3 throughout the week, including both on the Back 9 on Sunday
Par 4's (11): Average distance - 442 yards
The two most difficult holes on the course are Par 4's on the back 9, both of which are bogeyed well over 3x as often as they are birdied.
Rahm made 9 bogeys during his win here last season and every one of them came on a Par 4 (#2 was the only hole that tripped him up twice)
Par 5's (3): Average distance - 559 yards
The three easiest holes on the course, with #1 owning an eagle rate that is three times the bogey rate (it's eagle rate is higher than the birdie rate on the Par 3 #4)
The finishing position for the Top 5 in SG: Par 5 last season at this event: 14-9-6-3-1.
DRAFTKINGS STREAK
DFS is nothing but a math problem, right? At first glance, you might assume that players going front-to-back have the edge in showdown because those going the other direction have to deal with the tough #18 at the turn (fourth most difficult hole). Not so fast. With holes #17 (third easiest) and #1 (easiest) being very scorable, the opposite is actually true. Based on under-par rates, golfers going front-to-back have a 1.14% chance to streak across the turn while those going back-to-front check in at 1.88%. Of course, you need to be part of the 9.4% that birdie #18, but with two very gettable holes on either side, that is the percentage play when it comes to stringing three-in-a-row.
Past Winners
2023: Jon Rahm -17
2022: Joaquin Niemann -19
2021: Max Homa -12
2020: Adam Scott -11
2019: JB Holmes -14
2018: Bubba Watson -12
2017: Dustin Johnson -17
2016: Bubba Watson -16
2015: James Hahn -6
2014: Bubba Watson -15
Probably should just call this the LIV Memorial tournament.
2023 — Jon Rahm
Tournament prior: 3rd place at WMPO
- Fired 65's on both Thursday (third best round of the day) and Saturday (second best)
- 7 of the top gainers in Prox: 200+ cashed top 20 paychecks (Rahm led the field)
- 8 of the top 11 finishers (including each of the top 3) lost strokes putting from 25+ feet
2022 - Joaquin Niemann
Tournament prior: 6th place at Farmers
There were 4 rounds of 63 or better before the weekend and Niemann accounted for two of them.
Seven of the top eight finishers (and eight of the top 12) gained strokes on the Par 3's
Eight of the top 9 finishers gained strokes putting from 5-10' AND 10-15'
2021 - Max Homa
- Tournament prior: 7th at AT&T Pro-Am
Bookended 70's with 66's and was the only golfer that didn't shoot 71+ in any of the four rounds
Nine of the top 11 finishers gained in Prox: 125-150 (of those nine, seven also gained from 200+)
Each of the top 4 finishers lost distance but gained Good Drives to the field
2020 - Adam Scott
Tournament prior: 1st at Australian PGA Championship
Was 8 back after Thursday, but his 64 on Friday was two better than anyone else on the course
Eight of the top 9 finishers gained Good Drives (Rory McIlroy was the lone exception)
All of those top 9 finishers gained strokes to the field on Par 4's 400-450 yards
2019: J.B. Holmes (-14, one clear of Justin Thomas)
Highlight: First round leader after firing a 63, didn’t have a round better than 68 the rest of the way
Five of the top seven players in approach for the week cashed top 10 paychecks
36-hole Sunday finish
2018: Bubba Watson (-12, two clear of Kevin Na/Tony Finau)
Highlight: Made his move on moving day with a 65 (second-best round of the day, his best round of the tournament by three strokes)
11 of the top 13 finishers gained on proximity in the 175-200 yard window
2017: Dustin Johnson (-17, five clear of Scott Brown/Thomas Pieters)
Highlight: DJ posted the second-best score of Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3 before taking his foot off the gas with a 71 on Sunday)
13 of the top 14 finishers gained on approach, the three best putters for the week all cashed top five paychecks
Notes
The drivable No. 10 is a prime example of great, short par 4. It’s been the second-toughest par 4 under 350 yards on TOUR the last decade, yet has played under par in six of the last seven seasons.It does present a legitimate conundrum for players on the tee box. Most of which has to do with where the pin is located that day. If you’re long and the pin is at the back, death.
If the pin is at the back, and you lay up, you must contend with the fact that the GIR% from inside 75 yards on the 10th hole is no gimme. Since 2013, there have been 3,407 attempts from inside 75 yards. Of these attempts just 62% of players hit the green in regulation (2,111 of 3,407). Since 2012, players only manage to salvage par 53% of the time when the hole location is on the back-right side of the green.
Essentially, if you’re going to miss while going for the green, miss left. Another advantage for lefties and hard draw players — one in three players who miss right of this green make bogey or worse. Corey Conners holds the best GIR% inside 75 yards of any player in this year’s field.
Toughest Greens to hit inside 75 Yards
The Riviera Country Club No. 10 (62%)
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) No. 5 (70%)
TPC River Highlands No. 2 (72%)
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) No. 5 (74%)
Like at Augusta National, as mentioned, there is a clear bias toward left-handers at Riviera and players who hit a draw. There has also been a significant leaderboard crossover between Riviera and Quail Hollow historically. When Max Homa, JB Holmes and James HAHHHHHNNNNNN have won at both venues, that’s evidence enough.
On paper, 7,322 doesn’t seem like it would be too long of a task for the field as a Par 71. That’s before a closer examination of the scorecard, however. Turns out, Riviera CC is actually quite daunting. There are elevation swings all over the course but also that micro Par 4 (No. 10) at just 315 yards and all three of the Par 5s measure under 600 yards. That leaves a lot of yardage to go around. What remains are seven par 4s measuring over 450 yards, all of which play over par. You’ll be hard-pressed to find a course featuring more approach shots from 175 yards and beyond. 46% of approaches this week will come form 175+; two-thirds from 150+.
Hole No. 1 typically plays as the easiest Par 5 on TOUR, generating a 6% eagle rate and 60% birdie rate for the field. Since 2004, only No. 9 at Waialae CC has ceded more eagles to the field.
Short hitters with excellent long irons can definitely contend at Riviera, but the degree of difficulty is just so much higher for them. Since the fairways are difficult to hit (55%) and the rough is generally very short in spots, bombers are the path of least resistance this week. Just glance at the past winners at this event and you’ll get the idea.
An examination of the strokes gained influence among the Top 5 finishers from the past decade showed SG: APP to be more than twice as impactful to that group as SG: OTT and SG: ATG.
Riviera is one of the lowest driving accuracy courses and sports a miniscule GIR rates (57%) despite greens on the larger side. PGA TOUR averages are 62% and 66%, respectively. Riviera CC has ranked inside the top 10 toughest greens to hit in regulation in 11 of the last 12 seasons. Short game will play a factor in determining the winner, but much like at Pebble Beach, the green complexes at Riviera, both on and around the putting surfaces, are learned through experience.
There’s a reason Bubba Watson can have a wonky short game at most places, yet know exactly the proper shot and speed at Riviera. Unlike Pebble, however, Riviera has large 7500 square foot putting surfaces, which puts an extra emphasis on lag putting. Beyond a similar strength of field, it’s another reason so many of the same players perform well at Riviera and Augusta National.
A week after a course that has some of the easiest putting inside 10 feet in Phoenix, Riviera historically ranks as the toughest course putting from under five feet, along with Pebble Beach GL and Torrey Pines South — all Poa Annua courses.
Obviously, not all poa greens are the same. The putting surfaces at Riviera tend to roll as some of the fastest of any course each year. These are the best putters per round at Riviera per round over the past 24 rounds played in the field this week.
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After Pebble Beach, Riviera sports the toughest greens to hit from inside 125 yards (76%). With the narrow fairways and broadcasters’ love of saying the word “Kikuyu,” expect the thick grass type of the rough to be mentioned over and over … and over.
Bets/Picks
Sam Burns 35/1
After a series so near hits to open the season in La Quinta and Phoenix, Burns get a chance to make it up to us at RIV, the site of his first public implosion. He was coasting to a win here in 2021 but the back nine Sunday ate him alive. But with the way he drive the ball in Phoenix over the weekend, coupled with his standard productivity with the putter, it’s time for Burns to add win No. 6 to the resume.
Adam Scott 45/1
Third in approach last week as he sneakily shook off a rough start to the event to grind out a T8 finish. That follows up his T20 at Pebble to kick off his PGA season. Obviously, he won this event in 2020 just before the COVID shutdown, but he’s not immune to great results here in other year. Scott’s picked up a total of six Top 10s at RIV in his past nine starts.
Taylor Moore 150/1 (5 Places)
In the year of the triple digit winner I suppose we need to take a shot in this range. Moore’s distance is never an issue it’s usually his irons and putter. Last week he was able to gain almost a stroke per round on approach however. He gave almost all them back on the greens, which is an problem, but that’s never been the case for him at RIV. In six career rounds at The Genesis, he’s gained strokes putting in five of them.
Other bets
Aberg 22/1
Cam Young 45/1
Clark 55/1
— PM