FINAL MASTERS UPDATE: Bets, DraftKings, Weather
+ Another $500 in giveaways
BONUS $500 Cash
Tambo and I gave away over $1000 in cash and prize on today’s show, and we decided, what’s another $500, to you, THEE BEST people in the world. If you’ve done these already, you’re still in the draw. For anyone new who wants that cash…
10 Ballots — Subscribe PME Podcast on Apple or Spotify, leave a 5-Star Review, include your email or twitter handle in the review and you’re good.
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
If you can’t leave a review on Spotify, just sub, rate 5 stars and screen shot me the evidence on Twitter at @ThePME.
5 Ballots — Sub to this newsletter. It’s FREE.
3 Ballots — Subscribe to Mayo Media Network on Youtube. Easy Stuff
Mayo Media Network: https://bit.ly/YTMMN
2 Ballots — Follow Tambo on Twitter and Retweet his Masters Tidbit. Also, you should reads them.
MASTRES PME CONTENT
Final Bets, Weather + DraftKings Picks
Best Bets & Pool Picks
OUT — Fantasy Picks, Bets, One & Done + Cursed Players
DraftKings Milly Maker Picks
Research, Picks, Course, Custom Model
MONDAY POST — Field, Trends, DK History
TUESDAY POST — Weather Tends from Augusta, Stats, Research
THURSDAY — Round One Recap
FRIDAY — CUT SWEAT LIVE (Weather Pending)
SUNDAY BONUS — LIVE Recap
MASTERS BETS
Maybe we won’t lose money??? It’s possible. But unlikely.
WATCH: Masters Final Bets & One and Done
Scottie Scheffler — If you’ve listened to me all week, you know I’ve been struggling on whether or not to roll with Scheffler. I finally did it. When I imagine leaderboard entering the final round this week, the one name I feel the most confident in seeing on there is Iron Schef. Since I’m in, you’ll probably want to bet him to miss the cut FYI. It’s been two decades since there was a repeat champion, Scheffler’s experience and recent form make him the most viable candidate in some time. You know why he can win, so maybe it’s better to list the reasons why he won’t. The putter can be problem. It reared its ugly head in the semifinals of the match play, gifting the win to Sam Burns. But the difference between Scottie this year and last year during the torrid early season run has actually been he’s not putting nearly as well this year. The ball striking has been even better. If he continues this current level of driving and approach play, and gets a slightly above average week from the flat stick, it’s likely curtains for the field.
Min Woo Lee — Lee closed 2022 with six consecutive Top 12 finishes, and opened this year T2/T13 during the Middle East swing on the DP World Tour. Obviously, his performance at THE PLAYERS Championship stands out to most people. Although he wilted in the final group with Scottie Scheffler and ended up T6, it was a necessary step to true contention at a Major. He’s now been in the pressure cooker, failed, and can now build from that experience. Ditto with his Augusta play. The Aussie was low debutant (tied with Harry Higgs) a year ago, and while it’s been a rollercoaster for Min WOOOOOOOO since heading over to the United States, the driver has been just as good stateside as it has been world wide. He’s gained over four strokes on the field off the tee in two of three weighted US starts, and sits Top 10 on the season in per round driving distance gained. In the narrative department, like me, most of you are probably holding a Min Woo 150/1 ticket from a month ago. Since, he’s dropped in the market down to 60/1. The last player we were all holding 150/1 tickets on who closed at 60/1 in windy conditions at Augusta? Correct: Danny Willett.
Shane Lowry — Sure, the putter may be in shambles, but that’s nothing new. If the weather truly gets as bad at it appears it will, he’ll be in his glory in the soggy and cold conditions. He’s improved his Masters finish each of the past three years and while he’s putted himself out of some tournaments this season, he enters having gained more than 7.3 strokes on the field T2G in three of his past four starts. All elevated events.
Si Woo Kim — It’s me, Pat Mayo. Of course I bet Si WOOOOOOOOO. Also I saw this…
Abraham Ancer — The Mexican Allen Iverson has hit the skids on LIV recently, but really, who cares. In his only real tournament this year, Ancer toppled a mixed PGA, DP World Tour, and LIV field at the Saudi International in February. He finished T26/T13 in his first two appearances before an untimely MC a year ago. Less not forget, Ancer was forced out of the Valero the week previous with COVID, and really didn’t seem himself at Augusta. I have chosen to give him a pass.
Phil Mickelson and Bryson DeChambeau — The good news? They’ve each made their past three cuts. Bad news? It’s one a Tour with a cut line. Phil Hasn’t finished better than T27 in any of the 2023 LIV events, while Bryson popped a bit last week, it was still 15th of 48 players. By far his best result. In their only cut event in 2023, they both missed and, frankly, seem completely in shambles. In all honesty, I’d love for both these guys to be in the Sunday afternoon. I’d be great TV, but I’ve learned I can’t just will things into happening. I’m not Cust.
Phil currently looks like he was given the opportunity to pick the real grail, and chose… poorly.
Now, for someone who works in the sports betting industry, I think I do a decent job of not going fully deign with my bankroll. But Masters to make/miss the cut are my kryptonite. I love them. I love them so so much. Two of the best PME moments ever (I’m told) are when Dufner dumped it in the Water on 15 to bust up my 14-leg 450/1 parlay LIVE on air. I needed to go smoke. But then I got a stat correction in my favor (on my birthday no less) when a Grillo bogey was changed to a par, getting him through the cut line, completing the 300/1 parlay, and all there others along the way. If nothing else, they’re a fun sweat. ANDDDDDD, even though the within 10 rules is gone at Augusta, with only 88 players in the field, at 57% of players will see the wekeend, and that’s before ties. So, here’s what I’ve put together this year.
FREE PROP CONTEST
If you’re looking for a less intensive Masters pool, and one that’s FREE (that still has $500 in the price pool) I suggest you check out MAYO MASTERS. It’s a simple “yes” or “no” pick’em game, open to everyone. Again, it’s FREE, and there’s $200 to first. why not play?
PLAY IN THE MAYO MASTERS PICK’EM GAME
MASTERS WEATHER
Again, KEEP CHECKING ON THE FORECAST UP UNTIL LOCK!!!! This shit changes all the time. Currently, the rain projected for Friday is now a lot less than even beginning-of-the-day Wednesday. This forecast shows an advantage for the those playing the earliest Friday morning (CAM CHAMP!!!!) in terms of wind (and potentially a soft course), so if you wanted to target players in those groupings, I certainly wouldn’t fault you. In fact, it seems downright sensible tbh.
WATCH: Masters Weather, Wave Breakdown
But if if there’s extra rain or that wind moves up, it could push the good wave into the bad conditions very quickly. Trust me, it’s happened to me far too many times. I lot of my pool of players is from this Late/Early wave so I don’t feel the need to adjust. But was a tiebreaker for the long shots or cheaper players, I’d lean that wave to make my decision.
MASTERS WIND TOWER: Daniel Field Airport
Saturday, that looks like it could be washed out as of now. Then that forces as many holes as possible into Sunday where it’s going to cold and windy. Many are leaning bombers and specifically carry distance because of the potential soggy conditions. However, as I explored in Tuesday’s post, looking back at wind and/or water logged Masters of 2007 and 2016, the short hitting, accuracy, short game.wedge savants were the ones on the leaderboard.
There’s no metric for “wet” conditions, and even if there was, it may not be very accurate. When these stats get put in, it doesn’t account for individuals, only rounds. For example, Hideki essentially won the Masters in 2021 after there was a rain delay and he came out firing at pins on soft greens. Not everyone who played that day got that luxury since they were already finished their rounds, yet the stats would still call that round “wet” for everyone. So you see how there are flaws. It’s not dissimilar to “wind” stats. That shit changes all day long and affects certain holes differently and all depends on when players get them. I think the best we can do, if we’re looking for players who can attack soft greens if given the opportunity, is to turn on the “Soft Green Firmness” filter on Fantasy National and take a gander.
GET 20% OFF ALL RESEARCH TOOLS, LINEUP GENERATOR, OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS AND MORE AT FANTASY NATIONAL
If you work under the premise that the wetness is going to force even the bombers to lay up on the Par 5s, then targeting this wedge range with “Soft Green Firmness” maybe something you want to consider.
If you turn off that filter, here’s what you get with the same weighting.
Here’s the list of Thursday/Friday tee times in case you were wondering…
Na’s been quite mediocre on LIV while Weir has two Top 10s in his past 5 Champions starts? Is it concerning Weir has missed ten of his 12 eight Masters cuts? Meh. I’m looking to gamble. Weir’s posted a 72 in the first round of the past four year, if he can do close to that he can win this. REPRESENT CANADA, MIKE!!!!!!
DRAFTKINGS PICKS & OWNERSHIP
Tambo and I broke down how we’re constructing our lineups on today’s show, and even did a $7500 and under draft to let you know which cheaper players we’re going to focus on in our lineups.
WATCH: Masters DraftKings Picks, Ownership & Strategy
I don’t have the best grasp on ownership on the large $15, but I’ll give you my best guesses!
Conners 28%
Finau 22%
Rory 21%
Sungjae 19%
Spieth 18%
Scheffler 17%
PAR 4s
Six of the seven toughest holes on this course are Par 4’s. If you score well on the 4’s and hold serve elsewhere, you’re in business. Here’s how the top of the DK board grades in terms of percentage of rounds (since the beginning of last season) gaining on Par 4’s:
MASTERS STATS
Best players by round number (SG:TOT) since the beginning of 2018
Round 1: Jon Rahm
Worst among the $9,000+ guys: Max Homa
Round 2: Dustin Johnson
Worst among the $9,000+ guys: Max Homa
Round 3: Rory McIlory
Worst among the $9,000+ guys: Jordan Spieth
Round 4: Patrick Cantlay
Worst among the $9,000+ guys: Jordan Spieth
I mentioned in my DK article that I’m focusing on Driving Distance and SG:SG (among other things. There are five players who are top-20 in both …
Jon Rahm
Sam Burns
Jordan Spieth
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Jason Day
It’s possible to jam four of them into a lineup and pair them with Min WOO and Willett. #MayoMadness
Over the past five Masters’, eight players priced $9,000+ have missed the cut
6 of them missed the cut at their most recent appearance at THE PLAYERS
Rory McIlory is the only $9,000+ player to do that at this Masters
7 of them came in struggling in a big way with the short game (either ARG or putting). Here are the worst players priced $9,000+ in SG:SG in specific time frames
Past 24 rounds: Collin Morikawa
Past 36 rounds: Collin Morikawa
Past 50 rounds: Collin Morikawa
MC (9k+)
2022 – Spieth (MC at his most recent PLAYERS, lost putting in 3 of 4), Xander (MC at his most recent PLAYERS, lost putting in 3 of 4),
Brooks (MC at his most recent PLAYERS, lost putting in 3 of last 4, lost ARG in 7 of 10), Bryson (lost ARG in 11 straight)
2021 – Hatton (MC at his most recent PLAYERS, lost ARG in 5 straight)
2019 – Rose (8th at PLAYERS, exception?),
Casey (MC at his most recent PLAYERS, lost putting in 4 of 6)
2018 – None
2017 – Stenson (2 MC, MC at his most recent PLAYERS, lost putting in 5 of 7,
Scottie (1st)
Rahm (55th)
McIlory (MC)
Smith (1st)
Spieth (19th)
Cantlay (19th)
JT (60th)
Homa (6th)
Morikawa (13th)
X (19th)
2022 Masters (using season long stats)
16 golfers played 50+ rounds and gained strokes via ball striking in 70% of rounds …
Six of them finished inside the top-10 at The Masters
Who is doing that since the beginning of last season?
Will Zalatoris
Rory McIlroy
Jon Rahm
Tony Finau
Scottie Scheffler
Mito Pereira
Cam Young
Justin Thomas
Sungjae Im
Viktor Hovland
Patrick Cantlay
Collin Morikawa
Joaquin Niemann
Eight of the top-9 finishers last season were full-time PGA members for the season (exception: Cam Smith)
Of those eight, seven finished the season top-30 (min. 50 rounds) in either distance off the tee or fairways gained (but none of them were top-70 in both … pick a lane and do it at a high level!)
Who is doing that since the beginning of last season?
Tom Kim
Brian Harman
Adam Svensson
Zach Johnson (gray on Fantasynational)
Kevin Kisner
Justin Thomas
Jordan Spieth
Scott Stallings
Adam Scott
Bryson DeChambeau
Brooks Koepka
Kurt Kitayama
Of those eight, only two gained BoB in a higher percentage of rounds than they gained in Bogey Avoidance
Who is doing that since the beginning of last season (min 75 rounds, needs to be gaining in the majority of both metrics to qualify)?
Here are the guys bettering the field in bogey avoidance at least 10 percentage points more often than they gain BoB
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Jason Day
Mito Pereira
Shane Lowry
Seamus Power
Sungjae Im
Chris Kirk
Tom Kim
Big name players with a higher BoB gain rate than Bogey Avoidance (obviously not a death nail, but a trend from last season)
Viktor Hovland
Justin Thomas
Patrick Cantlay
Scottie Scheffler (he was one of the exceptions last season)
Xander Schauffele
There are three lists above and only four players appeared on two of them since the beginning of last season …
Justin Thomas
Mito Pereira
Sungjae Im
Tom Kim
Thanks for all the support this week, and I hope you all win millions. Even if that’s not actually possible.
— PM