I let myself believe, briefly, that Molinari was going to cash that 200/1 ticket. Hudson Swafford put an end to that with his approach on No. 16. But at least his Top 5 each way paid 50/1. Thus making a very profitable week. NOPE!!!
Instead, the Italian takes on the dog leg on No. 18, hitting what seemed to be the best drive of the day on the hole. Sitting 136 yards out from the middle of the fairway, Molinari proceeds to blow the approach, leave the up-and-down seven-feet away and miss the par putt for a glorious T6 finish. Right in the shit hole. Good for zero dollars. This has got to flip soon. Right? RIGHTTTTTT?????? I really feels like this keeps happening. Maybe I’m in some groundhog day perpetual loop of Sunday Golf Gaggers. I hope that’s not the case.
Shout out to all you Swafficer backers out there, though. I saw some nice tickets floating around on Twitter at 200/1 & 250/1, that’s an amazing hit.
I saw two long time listeners hit nice DK cashes this week. Congrats Skeeter & Tharusha
For me, Pennyless Pat, I’ve already moved on to the Farmers with the stacked field at Torrey Pines, and here’s the research show…
WATCH: Farmer’s Research Show + Listener’s League
One thing I did to quell the pain was go submit my ballot for the Custys. If you need a laugh, just look thought these categories
VOTE: In the 2022 Custy Awards
Although we rag on Cust a lot, I went to the golf simulator with him on Sunday to watch the LAR/TB game, and he put a fucking charge into this drive
2022 Farmers Insurance Open
Quick Notes
Field:156 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Lineup Lock: Wednesday, January 26
Defending Champ: Patrick Reed
2022 Farmers Insurance Open: Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Distance Gained
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
2022 Farmers Insurance Open: Course(s)
Course: Torrey Pines South
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,765
Greens: Poa
Shot Tracker: Yes
Course: Torrey Pines North
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,258
Greens: Bentgrass
Shot Tracker: No
2022 Farmers Insurance Open: Past Winners
2021: Patrick Reed -14
2020: Marc Leishman -15
2019: Justin Rose -21
2018: Jason Day -10
2017: Jon Rahm -13
2016: Brandt Snedeker -6
2015: Jason Day -9
2014: Scott Stallings -9
2013: Tiger Woods -14
Field Notes
The field of 156 players will rotate between the North and South courses for the first two rounds before there is a cut down to the Top 65 and ties after 36 holes. The remaining players will finish the tournament at the South Course over the final two rounds. Normally, I’d say “Weekend”, but NOT THIS WEEK!!!!
Since the PGA actually thought this one through, they decided going head-to-head with the NFL Championship games probably would lead to only a handful of viewers. And those viewers were likely 90-year-olds who fell asleep and left the TV on after they fell asleep watching paid programming in the morning. Meaning, the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open STARTS WEDNESDAY this year.
Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, and defending champ Patrick Reed
Stacked second tier featuring Marc Leishman, Corey Conners, Matthew Wolff, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Will Zalatoris, Billy Horschel, Max Homa, Cameron Davis, Matt Jones, Si WOOOOOO Kim, Mac Hughes, Cameron Champ along with the 2022 debut of Aaron Wise and the two Chileans: Joaquin Niemann and Mito Pereira.
Plus, there’s name value with former champs Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker, Phil Mickelson, and Justin Rose, along with the firmly good Gary Woodland, Rickie Fowler, and Francesco Molinari.
Early Chalk
With his finish at AMEX, expect Will Z, if he’s high 8K-Low 9K range on DraftKings, I can see a lot of people gravitating towards him. Then there’s this…
Course Notes
Since the field alternates between courses for the first two days, target bombers at the easier North Course for DraftKings Showdown purposes. If your golfers can start on Hole No. 1 instead of Hole No. 10, that’d be a big advantage too, as there’s a stretch of easier holes from 9-12. There is one drawback, however: There’s no ShotLink at the North Course and minimal cameras. So trying to follow what is going on will be an exercise is futility.
Torrey Pines South was already the longest course in the regular PGA TOUR rotation. After the 20211 US Open, it’s has retained some of the extra length. It is now a brutal 7,765 yards.
10 of the past 16 winners at the Farmers have finished the season inside the Top 30 in Driving Distance, and the ones who didn’t gained a ridiculous amount of strokes putting on the field — Hello, Patrick Reed
Three things to target from your picks: Driving distance, iron play from 175-plus yards, and around-the-green. While a short smacker like Brandt Snedeker has experienced a lot of success at Torrey Pines, most of the leaderboard is generally congested with bombers who don’t have the yips from just off the green.
In 2021, 18 of the 24 on the leaderboard gained against the field in driving distance. In 2020, 20 of the 23. In 2019, each of the Top 7 finishes gained against the field.
Very rarely does Strokes Gained: Around The Green factor into the winning score. However, because of the tiny greens on the South Course, pairing an average or above short game with a big driver is the way to crack the Sunday leaderboard. Not the only way, but the path of least resistance. Obviously, fairways + distance off the tee will equal a slew of GIRs, which would be optimal, but that’s just simply unfeasible for three rounds on this course with the average scrambling percentage hovering around 52 percent.
If you feel the need to put shorter hitters in your lineups, make sure they gain strokes off the tee through their accuracy and know how to hit a long iron. There are six par 4s measuring over 450 yards and five of them are inside the six most difficult holes on Torrey Pines South and all played over par. Holes No. 12 and No. 15 are two of the 50 toughest holes on TOUR almost every year, majors included.
Using Fantasy National , here are the best per round players in SG: TOTAL for the three years at courses over 7400 yards with the average and difficult filters turned on.
TOOLS: 20% Fantasy National Tools & Stats
There’s not a huge sample from Torrey Pines (US Open excluded btw) but these are the best putters at the South Course per round since 2018. Obviously, 12 rounds of data isn’t necessarily predictive, but I’d put from faith in them than players with a round or two on these Poa surfaces.
Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman, and Ryan Palmer have the most Strokes Gained: Total over the past five years at the Farmers Insurance Open. Of note, Finau, Rahm, and Ryan Palmer duelled down the stretch at The Memorial in 2020 in the Uber-tough conditions.
Over the last five years, in a minimum of three starts, Patrick Reed, Tony Finau, Ryan Palmer, Jon Rahm, Marc Leishman, Brandt Snedeker, Sungjae Im, Cameron Davis, Bill Haas, Talor Gooch, Hideki Matsuyama, John HUH??????, Nick Taylor, and Keegan Bradley have made the cut in each appearance.
NFL PLAYOFFS
Bengals win
Players in the 2000’s that had 105 receiving yards in consecutive playoff games under the age of 25: Ja’Marr Chase, Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith
The Bengals are winning and everything is great, but what do we do with Joe Mixon next season if his struggles continue until the end of this season? He hasn’t averaged 4 yards per carry in a game since Thanksgiving week and it’s not as if he was efficient last season prior to the injury (3.6 YPC)
AJ Brown: he’s been targeted at least 8 times in 17 games over the past 2 seasons. In those games, a cool 107 catches for 1,612 yards and 11 TDs (that’s 2021 Justin Jefferson: 108-1616-10)
49ers win
Deebo Samuel is averaging 10.7 touches per game over his last 10 games
Aaron Rodgers watch is underway. Where will he go? Notta clue, but his value may hinge on the offensive line. This season was his second worst over the past decade when pressured. BUT. Over the past two seasons, his fantasy production per attempt when not pressured is 34% better than it was over the previous five seasons.
- If you’re curious, the Steelers and 49ers ranked top-5 in preventing pressure this season
- If you’re curious, the Broncos allowed pressure at the second highest rate
Rams win
Cooper Kupp notched his 7th 30-point effort of the season in PPR scoring. For reference, that’s the same number as Keenan Allen, Robert Woods and DeAndre Hopkins combined … since 2019!
Matthew Stafford becomes the 4th QB ever to do all of the following in consecutive playoff games: 73% complete, multiple pass TD and a rush TD (Mahomes, Tobin Rote and Otto Graham).
— PM