Farmers Picks, Bets, DK & Info + NFL Champ Round
Farmers Picks, Bets, DK & Info + NFL Champ Round
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Farmers Bets
Will Zalatoris — Came within a half ball rotation of a win a year ago, and after watching him in his first two starts in 2023, it’s clear the injuries are behind him. Time to get revenge.
Max Homa — When you’re doing the check list of skills you want to have this week, Homa fills up the sheet. He’s above average in distance and inside the Top 25% for accuracy among the players in the field. That will work. Then in the case of chipping and long irons, Homa rates out Top 15 of all players. Throw in his penchant for California greens and previous Top 10 in this event, and you may have a winner.
Justin Rose — A former winner at Torrey, who is quietly trending back upwards in his career with the injuries in rearview mirror. Even during his slump Rose still managed to squeak out a T6 in this event last year.
Will Gordon — Gordon finally missed his first cut of the season at the American Express, so no better time to hop back on the horse. The irons are always going average, usually at best, but his game off the tee and his touch around the greens are perfect for Torrey Pines. He’s two-for-two in cuts made at The Farmers lifetime, and is averaging an insane +1.2 SG:PUTT in six career rounds at the South Course.
PGA DRAFTKINGS
On the DraftKings side, I’ve faded Rahm enough. So, luck a sucker, I’m diving in at the very top. Nothing like paying $1,100 more for him than the 2nd most expensive player. I did the walk through on the Sunday research show, and these are the Top players in my simplified, short term (24 rounds) key stats. Make your own at FN btw.
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There’s another fun angle this week: The Weather. Since the event starts Wednesday, round two (Thursday) looks like it may get brutal starting around 10am local outside San Diego. What’s the proper path? No clue. You have three options
Stack all players from the more difficult South Course Day 1, and get your guys on the easier course in the worse conditions.
Stack all players from the easier North Course Day 1, allow them to go low, and hope they hold on during a bad conditions round Day 2.
Do nothing.
Black's Beach/Torrey WIND TOWER
I’ve opted for a mix of 1 and 3. It’s no guarantee players are going to go low at the North Course, so I want my guys playing the easier course in bad wind. Am I wrong? Wouldn’t be the first time. I’ve entered 60 lineups, 25 are SC Day 1 stacks. The other 35 are just a mix of both courses.
Here are the tee times of you want to plan it out. Or juts sit back and laugh at the over thinking. Whatever you want. FYI: If you hover your mouse over tee times on Fantasy National it will tell you which course the player is starting on.
NFL PICKS
HOT TAKES, PICKS, CUST CORNER. It’s all here…
WATCH: Champ RD Spread Picks & Cust Corner
SIXTH ANNUAL CUSTYS
Here’s a taste…
VOTE IN THIS YEAR’S CUSTY AWARDS
NFL Betting Insight
49ers at Eagles
SF when the spread is 3 points or less: 3-2 ATS (overs: 2-3)
SF when they cover this season: Overs are 6-3
Kyle Shanahan in the playoffs: 7-1 ATS (overs: 2-6)
Kyle Shanahan as an underdog: 28-19 ATS (overs: 19-28)
When Shanahan wins outright as a dog: Overs 6-13
PHI when the spread is 3 points or less: 1-0 ATS (overs: 0-1)
PHI when they cover this season: Overs are 8-5
PHI when favored: 9-8 ATS (overs: 8-9)
Bengals at Chiefs
CIN when the spread is 3 points or less: 6-1 ATS (overs: 2-4-1)
CIN when they cover this season: Overs are 5-8
CIN when favored: 9-5 ATS (overs: 7-6-1)
Burrow career vs AFC West: 6-2 ATS (overs: 2-6)
KC when the spread is 3 points or less: 2-2 ATS (overs: 2-2)
KC when they cover this season: Overs are 3-4
Mahomes career vs AFC North: 7-7 ATS (overs: 9-5)
Andy Reid as an underdog: 73-50-4 ATS (overs: 71-55-1)
When he is a dog in the playoffs: 6-3-1 ATS (overs: 6-4)
When Reid wins outright as a dog: Overs 29-24
Both games
(Trends in playoff games since 2000 with a total: 44-48 points and a spread of 3 points or less)
Underdogs: 15-11-2 (12-16 outright)
Road ‘Dogs: 11-6-1 (9-9 outright)
Overs: 15-13
FARMERS NOTES
WATCH: FARMER DK PICKS, BETS, ONE & DONE
SOUTH
Par: 72 (7,765 yards)
Water hazards: 1
Bunkers: 82
Greens: Poa annua
Notes
None of the Par 3’s averages a score under par
Six of the Par 4’s measure 435-465
All four Par 5’s are north of 560 yards
The four Par 5’s were the four easiest holes last year (all had a birdie rate over 30%, three had an eagle rate over 1.5%)
Showdown Streak
Holes 8-9-10 were among the 7 easiest holes last year while Hole 1 was the 6th toughest (minor lean toward starting on the front 9) But you want to target the North Course Players the first two days regardless
NORTH
Par: 72 (7,258 yards)
Water hazards: 0
Bunkers: 42
Greens: Bentgrass
Notes
All four Par 3’s are north of 200 yards
All four Par 5’s are under 560 yards
The four Par 5’s were the four easiest holes last year (all had a birdie rate over 40%, two had an eagle rate over 4% and a bogey rate under 4%)
Showdown Streak
Holes 2-3-18 were the three toughest last season, so starting on Hole 1 is your better bet (holes 9-10 were among the four easiest)
WINNERS
2022: Luke List (-15, beat Zalatoris in a playoff)
Highlight: 66 on Sunday (his best round of the weekend, was 5-back of Zalatoris)
2021: Patrick Reed (-14, only golfer to reach double figures under par)
Highlight: 64 on Thursday (co-leader after Round 1)
2020: Marc Leishman (-15)
Highlight: 65 on Sunday, his best round of the week and tied for the best round on the final day
2019: Justin Rose (-21)
Highlight: 63 on Thursday (four rounds in the 60’s)
2018: Jason Day (-10, won 3-way playoff with Alex Noren and Ryan Palmer)
Also won the event in 2015 (4-way playoff: Harris English, JB Holmes, Scott Stallings)
Highlight: Was 8 back after Thursday, rebounded from a first round 73 with a second round 64
Winner Note
Four of the past five tournaments have seen strong long iron play correlate to success
2022: All top-10 finishers gained in proximity from 200+
2021: Seven of the top-9 finishers gained in proximity from 200+
2019: Justin Rose won and was second best in the field from 200+
2018: All top-11 finishers gained in proximity from 200+
(the top-5 players last season in proximity from 200+ last season … Xander, Sungjae, Morikawa, Smalley and Wise)
DraftKings Note (maybe a stars and scrubs sort of week?)
2022: 7 players scored 100+ DK points, 5 were priced $7,600 or cheaper
2021: 8 players scored 90+ DK points, 6 were priced over $8,000
2020: Each of the top-5 DK scorers was priced $8,300 or higher
2019: 3 of the top-5 in DK pricing finished top-6 in DK points
2018: Four of the top-5 DK scorers were priced $7,800 or cheaper
— PM