Farmers Insureance Open First Look, Notes, Guess The Odds
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Guess the Odds
Max Homa 12
Xander Schauffele 12
Patrick Cantlay 14
Ludvig Aberg 14
Collin Morikawa 18
Justin Thomas 18
Sung-jae Im 25
Min Woo Lee 28
Jason Day 33
Will Zalatoris 35
Keegan Bradley 35
Eric Cole 35
Sahith Theegala 35
Justin Rose 40
Tony Finau 40
Hideki Matsuyama 40
Ryan Fox 45
Shane Lowry 50
Nicolai Hojgaard 50
Sepp Straka 55
Daniel Berger 55
Luke List 55
Taylor Montgomery 60
Adrian Meronk 75
Francesco Molinari 175
NOTES
13 of the past 15 winners have posted a top 10 at this event prior to winning. Jon Rahm won in his first start in 2017. Scott Stallings in 2014 was the other exception.
Top Players without a Top 10 at Torrey Pines (including US Open)
Cantlay
Straka
Fox (First time)
Aberg (First Time)
Hojgaard (First Time)
Min Woo (First Time)
Meronk (Only US Open)
Grillo
Schenk
Cole
Moore (T11!)
Svensson
HOW TO WIN (helps being a bomber)
Recent Course Horses
*Jason Day: Top 10 in consecutive Farmers (total +9.7 SG:P)
*Sungjae Im: Top 10 in consecutive Farmers (total: +10.0 SG:P)
*Hideki Matsuyama: Top 30 in consecutive Farmers (total: +11.1 SG: T2G)
*Justin Rose: Top 20 in consecutive Farmers (total: +7.8 SG:APP, lost SG:OTT in both)
Last three winners (Homa, List and Reed) showed the ability to show well early in the season prior (no need to get into "mid-season" form)
*Homa: Three top 15's in his first four tournaments the calendar year prior
*List: Three top 30's in his first four tournaments the calendar year prior (10th at Farmers)
*Reed: Two top 6's in his first three tournaments the calendar year prior
Players who excelled in the early going last season …
*Patrick Cantlay: Top 20 in six of his first eight tournaments in 2023 calendar year
*Collin Morikawa: Three top 6's in his first three tournaments in 2023 calendar year
*Xander Schuaffle: Three straight top 15's to open the 2023 calendar year
*Justin Thomas: Top 25 in his first five tournaments of the 2023 calendar year
*Marc Leishman: Three top 20's in his first four tournaments of the 2023 calendar year
Course: Torrey Pines South (Three Rounds)
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,765
Greens: Poa
Shot Tracker: Yes
None of the Par 3s average a score under par
All four Par 5s are north of 560 yards
The four Par 5s were the four easiest holes last year (all had a birdie rate over 30%, three had an eagle rate over 1.5%)
Showdown Streak
Holes 8-9-10 were among the seven easiest holes last year, while Hole No. 1 was the 6th toughest (minor lean toward starting on the front 9). But you want to target the North Course Players the first two days regardless
Torrey Pines North (One Round)
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,258
Greens: Bentgrass
Shot Tracker: No
Showdown Streak
Holes 2-3-18 were the three toughest last season, so starting on Hole No. 1 is your better bet (holes 9-10 were among the four easiest)
Past Winners
2023: Max Homa -13
2022: Luke List -15
2021: Patrick Reed -14
2020: Marc Leishman -15
2019: Justin Rose -21
2018: Jason Day -10
2023: Max Homa (-13, two clear of Keegan Bradley)
(Homa's second event of the season, finished 3rd at Sentry. He gained 4.5+ strokes putting at both the Sentry and Farmer's, the only time in his career gaining like that in consecutive events)
Maintained his two-stroke lead by shooting a 66 (his best round of the tournament and one that matched what Bradley did on Sunday)
Bradley showed growth: -1 on Thursday/Friday, -10 on Saturday/Sunday
Five of the Top 6 finishers lost distance off the tee at the South Course (the top 12 finishers all gained Fairways on the field).
However, 12 of the past 18 winners at the Farmers have finished the season inside the top 30 in Driving Distance, and the ones who didn’t gain a ridiculous amount of strokes putting on the field — hello, Patrick Reed — Homa finished 62nd last year.
Past DraftKings Notes
2022: 7 players scored 100+ DK points, 5 were priced $7,600 or cheaper
2021: 8 players scored 90+ DK points, 6 were priced over $8,000
2020: Each of the top-5 DK scorers was priced $8,300 or higher
2019: 3 of the top-5 in DK pricing finished top-6 in DK points
2018: Four of the top-5 DK scorers were priced $7,800 or cheaper
Since the field alternates between courses for the first two days, target bombers at the easier North Course for DraftKings Showdown purposes. If your golfers can start on Hole No. 1 instead of Hole No. 10, that’d be a big advantage, too, as there’s a stretch of easier holes from 9-12. There is one drawback, however: there’s no ShotLink at the North Course and minimal cameras. So trying to follow what is going on will be an exercise is futility.
With larger greens and shorter holes, GIR rate and scrambling percentage at the North Course are above the PGA Tour average. Three of the Par 5s on the North Course also generate more eagles than any par 5 on the South. And, it’s over 500 yards shorter.
Early Leans: Keegan Bradley, Sam Stevens