Farmers Bets, DK Own, NFL Notes
+ Secret Spread & Cust Corner Link
2022 Farmers Bets
REMINDER: THIS EVENT STARTS WEDNESDAY AT 12pm ET
I felt good about myself for having some restrain with so many legit names down the board. Then, after I finished writing this newsletter, I caved on Dustin Johnson once I saw 25/1 on the page. I’m weak. And I feel my mental health will be a net positive if I bet DJ and he loses instead of not betting DJ at 25/1 and him winning. I didn’t pull the trigger on the falling superstar on the odds board last year and I’m not doing it again, in the first chance there is in 2022.
Will Zalatoris — After a horrendous Day 1, in his first round 2022, Zalatoris finished T7 at the AMEX, where he was top five in ball striking and tee-to-green at the South Course. He can now put his prolific tough-course skill to good use. Zalatoris already has a top 10 at this event, to go along with top-10 results at The Masters, PGA Championship, Arnold Palmer Invitational and a pair at the U.S. Open. All on the longer end of PGA courses.
WATCH: Farmers Insurance Open Picks & Bets
Luke List — Can List make enough three-to-five-footers during the week? I mean, probably not. But here we are. That’s still a big ask for Luke List. However, both these courses have higher than normal three-putt percentages, so maybe that will drop the field back to his level. Now the good, of all players in the Farmers field, he’s top 10 in SG: Off The Tee, Driving Distance, and SG: Around the Green over the past 50 rounds while also sitting top 20 in approach. He’s made the cut in this event the past four years and picked up his first top-10 result in 2021.
Tony Finau — Played sneaky well at the Stadium course a week ago, gaining 4.5 strokes ball striking despite a T40 finish. And that T40 has trumped his immaculate course history in the odds market. He’s posted Top 10s in four of his past five starts at The Farmers and his form is better than you think.
If for whatever reason you miss lock because of the weird start time, you always have time to get in on the EURO action (starts Wednesday night ET) in a stacked field in the Middle East.
WATCH: Dubai Desert Classic Picks & Bets
Still time to vote in the Custys too
VOTE: In the 2022 Custy Awards
Cust surprised everyone Tuesday Morning with his best meme of his strange campaign.
Pat Mayo @ThePME
Farmers Insurance Open Bets & PGA Netflix w/ @gfienberg17 https://t.co/ktPjmItiFL Apple: https://t.co/4pGri9dwWO Spotify: https://t.co/42GW6D18vc Stitcher: https://t.co/sPoKFvCFCZ Who's chest is better: Geoff's or Higgs'? https://t.co/MiKKvfwRTLAlthough, after listening to his streaming takes on this week’s Cust Corner, it would be ingenious not to vote for him in the “MOST INSANE” category.
2022 Farmers CONTENT HUB
Bets + Picks w/ Fienberg
DK Picks w/ Kirsh
Tournament Write Up
Research Show
DRAFTKINGS SHOWDOWN
You know by now you must stack the North Course for rounds one and two, so here’s the Round One North Course Tee sheet…
Conference Championship Same Game Parlay Starter Kit
CIN AT KC
Bengals win
In wins against the Chiefs, opponents ran the ball 42.7% of the time in the red zone (losses: 32.8%)
- Joe Mixon has 14 rush TD this season, 9 coming in wins
In every Chief loss this season, the opposition has thrown a deep TD pass
- Ja’Marr Chase has scored on 8-of-24 deep receptions this season (NFL average: 15.3%)
Chiefs win
In wins, the Chiefs complete 46.9% of their deep passes (losses: 37.1%)
In losses, the Bengals allow opponents to complete 57.5% of deep passes (wins: 46%)
- This season, Byron Pringle has a 58.8% deep ball catch rate (teammates: 41.4%)
o From Week 10 on, Tyreek Hill’s aDOT has dropped nearly 21%
SF AT LAR
49ers win
In every Rams loss this season, opposing TEs have totaled at least 5 catches and they all had a red zone catch
In 49er wins, 33.1% of completions go to the slot (up a tick from the rate in losses: 30.1%)
- On a per game basis, George Kittle leads the 49ers in slot routes, targets, catches and touchdowns
Rams win
In every 49ers loss this season, an opposing RB has rushed for a TD
- Cam Akers got 24 of 25 RB carries last week
When teams beat the 49ers, they average 8% fewer air yards per throw than they do in losses to the 49ers
- Tyler Higbee has the lowest aDOT among LAR regulars and has a 75% catch rate on balls thrown less than 15 yards
PGA GALAXY BRAIN: Fading Course History?
This tournament has three rounds on a traditionally tough scoring course (South) and one on an easier track (North). We know SG:APP is always a key statistic, so why complicate things? I opened up the elimination process by using Fantasy National to identify the top players (SG:APP) over their past 36 rounds in difficult scoring conditions. I then did the same thing for easy scoring conditions and given that 3 of 4 rounds are on the tough format, I weighed that rank 75%. My top-15 in this field when doing that math:
The South course is all sorts of long, so I decided to pair down my remaining options to those that ranked top-20 in Driving Distance OR Fairways Gained over their past 36 rounds on long courses. Obviously, it’s ideal to do both, but in terms of trying to unearth some winning upside, I’ll settle for one of the two.
But we are here to try to find an outright winner. Long irons are going to be important in this one, but not all long irons are created equal. Again, I want my guys to be either in the fairway or capable or hitting long irons from the rough. In an effort to gauge this, I took a look at the long (175+) proximity leaders in their past 36 rounds on courses that feature average to difficult fairways to hit. In doing so, the remaining 8 names sorted themselves into tiers:
So there you have it: Berger at +2000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. He came up around the 30 minute mark of the first look show, so maybe there is some value at the top of the board. It’s possible that Top-5 Tony or Bryson gain steam before this tournament kicks off. Or that even more people pile on Will Z. If any of those things happen or people begin to worry about Berger’s course history (he hasn’t made a cut at t he Farmer’s since 2015), his price could drop prior to teeing off on WEDNESDAY. Either way: he’s live (and offers a nice partial hedge at +100 to finish top-20 if you want to semi-protect yourself).
Of note, I passed on Berger for those other guys. But that wasn’t of the point of looking at the field in this respect.
EXTRA FARMERS MODEL
This is just boiled down to essentials I think matter this week, filtered over the past 24 rounds
TOOLS: 20% Fantasy National Tools & Stats
Here’s what the rolling report looks like for each interval range
FARMERS DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP
If you missed the Farmers DraftKings Picks Show, that just serial killer shit. Better rectify that now
WATCH: Farmers DraftKings Picks
Shout out to Brian Kirschner for jumping in to his first time on the show. Follow him here. He even got off one of the funniest lines in ages, albeit unintentionally.
The closer you get to tee off (12pm ET Wednesday BTW), the better the ownership projections are going to be on Fantasy National.
TOOLS: 20% Fantasy National Tools & Stats
But I just like to guess at the who the highest owned players are going to be, so let’s do that
JON RAHM
Tony Finau
Will Zalatoris
Max Homa
Luke List
Sam Burns
Mav McNealy
If you’re looking for Pivots, or low-owned players in the One and Done you have an entire selection of Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Daniel Berger or Jordan Spieth.
NFL Picks
Even though it’s only two game, we, as anticipated, veered off in a bunch of different directions, but we hammered down on the mistakes networks are making at the moment incorporating betting odds in to the broadcast and ways to fix that. I found it was a fruitful discussion. And the Cust Corner just happens organically off the top. It’s a lot of me being angry at Tim. Per usual.
WATCH: Champ RD Spread Picks + Cust Corner
— PM