Colonial Picks, Bets, Preview, Course Changes
+ NFL Schedule Release
Me and Fienberg preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks, Bets, One and Done selections while recapping the PGA Championship.
WATCH: Charles Schwab Challenge Picks, Bets, One & Done + PGA Championship Recap
2024 Charles Schwab Challenge
Field
136 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make The Cut
First Tee: Thursday, May 23
Defending Champion: Emiliano Grillo
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Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 4s Gained: 350-400 Yards
Fairways Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
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Course
Course: Colonial CC
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,289
Greens: Bentgrass
Holes With Water: 6
Bunkers: 84
Avg Green Size: 5,000 sq. Feet
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 210 yards
-These are the four most Par'd holes on the course with the two on the front-9 having a higher bogey than birdie rate
-2024 winner Emiliano Grillo made par on just 7 of the 16 Par 3's he played last season (1 double bogey, 3 bogey's, 5 birdies)
Par 4's (12): Average distance - 436 yards
-The three most difficult Par 4's on the course all come on the front-9 with Hole #5 and Hole #9 having a double-or-worse rate north of 4.5%
-Grillo took a penalty on Hole 72 and double bogeyed before the win in the playoffs (he was -1 on Hole #18 prior to the final round)
Par 5's (2): Average distance - 610 yards
-Two of the three easiest holes on the course with #1 owning a 2.4% eagle rate (6% bogey rate, the only single digit under par rate on the course)
-As good as Grillo was last season, he played the Par 5's even through the first two rounds (-3 over the weekend)
DraftKings Showdown Streak
No question this week, you need to be going back-to-front to leverage the starting position in this event. The first two holes are the two easiest on property and Hole #18 plays under par (19.5% under par rate). If you play the course in order, you have to deal with Hole #9, the second most difficult hole, one that carries the highest double-or-worse rate (5.4%)
BEST BETS
Mayo, Matt Vincenzi & Steph Smalls give their 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge picks with their Gold, Silver and Bronze Selections. We also get into how a proper golf gambling broadcast should look.
WATCH: Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets, Outright Winners | How a Golf Betting Broadcast Should Look
Past Winners
2023: Emiliano Grillo -8
2022: Sam Burns -9
2021: Jason Kokrak -14
2020: Daniel Berger -15
2019: Kevin Na -13
2018: Justin Rose -20
2017: Kevin Kisner -10
2016: Jordan Spieth -17
2015: Chris Kirk -12
Each of these past four winners entered with form on the greens
’23 Grillo: Positive SG: PUTT in five of his six previous starts.
’22 Burns: Gained over four strokes putting in three of four measured events prior (continued it by gaining five in his win at this event)
’21 Kokrak: Gained strokes putting in each of his three events prior (and in five of six events, a run that included the fourth-best putting week of his career)
’20 Berger: Gained strokes putting in each of his three events prior (a stretch that included the second-best putting week of his career … this trend continued, even through the COVID schedule disruption)
’19 Na: Gained strokes putting in each of his three events prior
2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8, playoff win over Adam Schenk)
-A 65 on Friday was his best round of the week and the best on the course that day. It kept him in the picture (4 shots back of Harry Hall entering the weekend)
-Grillo was the second best putter for the week (two of the top three putting performances of his career have come at this event)
-The Top 5 finishers all gained on distance putting (25+ feet) and distance approach (200+ yards)
2022: Sam Burns (-9, playoff win over Scottie Scheffler)
Improved with each round (71-68-67-65), gaining seven strokes on Scheffler on Sunday
Nine of the top-11 finishers gained in proximity from 175-200 yards (the two exceptions were among the five best in the field from 200+)
2021: Jason Kokrak (-14, two clear of Jordan Spieth)
His best golf came in the first three rounds (65-65-66), but the tournament was won when he picked up three strokes on Spieth on a Sunday that featured firm greens for the only time that week
Of the top 11 in Prox: 200+, seven cashed top-20 paychecks with Kokrak leading the field for the week.
2020: Daniel Berger (-15, playoff win over Collin Morikawa)
Consistency … both Berger and Morikawa shot 67 or better in all four rounds
Three players (including champion Berger) cashed top-10 paychecks despite losing on the field in proximity from … 75-100, 100-125 AND 125-150
2019: Kevin Na (-13, four clear of Tony Finau)
His 62 on Friday was the round of the tournament and brought him even with Finau entering the weekend after spotting him six strokes on Thursday.
Eight of the top-12 finishers lost distance off the tee
The top-four finishers all gained on the field in Proximity from 175-200 AND 200+ yards.
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Notes
Colonial has hosted the longest-running tournament on the PGA Tour. Every May since 1946, the world's greatest golfers travel to Fort Worth to compete in the Colonial National Invitational, known today as the Charles Schwab Challenge.
The 2023 renovation included every aspect of the golf course, including all new greens, hydronics installed, new bunkers, irrigation and drainage. Bermudagrass was sodded on 118 acres and greens were seeded with bentgrass. (More on the renos for Colonial.)
Fairway landing area widths are 25-30 yards. Talk from the course is that the greens are incredibly frim.
Playing just a hair over 7,200 yards, strategy from the tee box will prove to be far more important than a standard week. Because, really, that’s a fake 7,200 — the course stacks length in its par 3s (all four at least 190 yards) and a three-shot, 635-yard par 5. It’s like the bizarro Riviera. Take out those five holes, and the field is left with nine par 4s measuring less than 445 yards. Regardless of driving distance numbers, those holes are scoreable for the entire field. Of those nine, seven come in at 430 yards or less, five of which annually play under par.
With its classical design, Colonial is one of the regular PGA TOUR courses where all skill sets appear to have an equal opportunity to win. It’s akin to Harbour Town (Heritage), TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS), Sedgefield (Wyndham), East Lake (TOUR Championship) and Waialae (Sony Open) in that way. Distance will always be an advantage, but its impact is mitigated at Colonial.
Looking at past leaderboards, the top-five finishers almost exclusively share the trait of gaining a little off the tee, slightly less around the greens and a WHOLE LOT on approach and putting.
You’d think with below-average-sized greens, that chipping would play a major factor. That just doesn’t materialize at the top of the leaderboard, though. While a few well-timed up and downs will be critical, a great week from off the green means you’re simply not generating enough birdie tries to actually contend. Pin stalk with short irons, make putts, hoist a novelty check on Sunday.
Additionally, it’s worth noting very few eagles are made at Colonial. Hole No. 1 is really the only plausible eagle hole (outside of random approaches finding the bottom of the cup from 137 yards out). Even though it’s reachable to some in two shots, No. 1 still hovers around a 2% eagle rate historically. General DraftKings strategy points to distance as it typically leads to more eagle opportunities, which are worth eight DKFP as opposed to three, but past results show that isn’t the case at Colonial. That’s why there’s an over-emphasis on the 100-125 proximity range. While it may not be applicable to every player in the field for their approaches, with a good drive, that is the range where the pins will be most accessible on the scoring holes. Ditto at the longer par 5 (No. 11) for most of the field.
NFL SCHEDULE
Did you miss the schedule release show? Fucking weird. Cust had to come up with losses for the juggarnaut Jets then was flumoxed when we suggested he tip movers.
WATCH: NFL Schedule Release Breakdown | Cust Corner: Tipping Movers
By The Numbers Holes: 3/4/5 THE HORRIBLE HORSESHOE
+0.49 — Average over par the Horrible Horseshoe has played since 2003, toughest 3-5 hole stretch of any non-major venue that has been played at least eight times
5 — Since 1983, five players have a cumulative career score to par on the Horrible Horseshoe of two under or better (min of 4 rds)
7 — Six players have shot seven under or better after playing the Horrible Horseshoe over par
15 / 1.8% — Number of players who haven’t recorded a bogey or worse on this stretch of holes at Colonial CC since 1983 (1.8% of 835 total players) 4 Number of players with at least four trips around the Horrible Horseshoe without making a bogey or worse on this stretch of holes at Colonial CC since 1983 (Hideki Matsuyama, Francesco Molinari, Tommy Fleetwood and Erik van Rooyen)
+0.504 — Last season, the Horrible Horseshoe (holes 3-5) played 0.504 over-par
8 — of the last 11 seasons have seen the Horrible Horseshoe played at least a combined half shot over par
+0.616 — This stretch played the toughest in 2014 with the field playing these three holes a combined +0.616 over par
73.40 percentage of greens hit from inside 125 yards, the second toughest greens to hit from that distance on the PGA TOUR Last Season
33’ 4” proximity to the hole inside 100 yards, the third longest of any course on the PGA TOUR Last Season
55.83 percentage of players successfully able to get out of greenside bunkers, the fourth easiest percentage of any course on the PGA TOUR Last Season
13.39 putting percentage from 15’ to 25’, the second lowest percentage of putts made from that distance on the PGA TOUR Last Season
18.6% — Since 1983, 18.6% (155 of 835) of players who have played the Horrible Horseshoe have yet to record a birdie or better on this stretch of holes at Colonial CC
- 835 Individual Players have played at least one round
- 155 Players without a birdie or better in their careers (18.6%)
- 15 Players without a bogey or worse in their careers (1.8%)
Picks
More detail on Wednesday night but are you old and can putt? Get on the card.
Harman 45/1
Hoge 50/1
English 55/1
Bez 55/1
Keegan 70/1
Glover 75/1
Hubbard 100 + 5 Places
THURSDAY!!!!!!!
While I’m on my way to the Cabot course with Cust and friends, you can enjoy Kenny, Bronsteader and I going through the Custy Categories.
— PM