Colonial Final Bets, Weather, DraftKings Ownership
Colonial Bets
As I explained to Tambo on the Wednesday show: If I wasn’t such a coward, I’d just bet Scottie at +400. Instead, I saw Coolbet hang a 20 on Kawa, and friends, I’m not made of stone. But, as you can see by the size of my betting card, I’m just prepping for a Scheffler win and acting accordingly.
WATCH: Colonial Final Bets & One and Done Picks
Collin Morikawa — Morikawa didn’t lose an insane amount of strokes putting at Oak Hill, so that’s good enough for me to jump back on board. Even as the world’s most consistent iron player, it’s still shocking to see he hasn’t lost strokes with his irons since the 2022 PLAYERS. Yet, somehow, Colonial may be his most pin-seeking track. In three starts at the Charles Schwab, he’s averaging +6.7 SG: APP.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout — Despite missing the cut at Oak Hill, Bez remained on fire with his irons, gaining over two strokes per round Thursday and Friday. That makes four straight starts gaining over four strokes with his irons. Now, at a course where distance is mitigated, the South African can ride a hot putter into contention.
Akshay Bhatia —Bhatia is my new auto bet guy. The ball striking is sensational. He’s gained +6.5 T2G in his past two starts, primarily with his irons. But much like many players I love to back, he suffers from can’t puttitis. Fortunately, unlike many players in this same category, when he does gain on the greens, it’s actually a decent amount. You’ll just have to live with the constant string of missed five-footer if it happens to be one of those weeks.
Dylan Wu — A lot like Bez, HOT FIRE DYLAN should benefit from a course which prioritizes accuracy over distance. He’s gained on the greens in six of seven starts and is right around one stroke gained on approach per round since the beginning of April.
Stewmanji Cink — Do I know where the Sr. PGA Championship is taking place? I do not. However, one of the few places I’ve actually been successful betting the past few years is on the guys making their first jump to the Champions Tour. I’m just hoping Cink is the next one.
Billy Horschel — Blame Tom Jacobs for turning me on to the Austin CC/Colonial crossover success lately. Knowing Horschel, he’ll probably miss the cut by 12
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PAST YEARS
I’m trying to make a better effort to continue altering my research methods every week. Trust me, I need to do something different. But one feature I used to use all the time and just randomly stopped one day is the time machine function on Fantasy National.
The time machine function merely brings you back to a week before the event from previous years to look at lead in form. But this time we actually know what happened so we can try to reverse engineer the situation and try to let it help us this time around.
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Now’s a great time to get in on Fantasy National’s monthly membership btw. The monthly will take you from now through the Travelers Championship which is a run of this week, the Canadian Open, two elevated events and a Major. Basically, all tournaments you’re going to want to research.
I excluded the 2020 Charles Schwab since it was the first event out of COVID hiatus, so there were no real current stats and the field strength will never look like that again.
2022
2021
2019
From a very rudimentary scan from those results, both the winner and runner up were ranked inside the Top 30 in SG: APP over their previous 24 rounds before Colonial, while two of the years leaned very heavily and the hottest putters over that span entering play that week.
Players who fit those two things over the past 24 rounds entering this week: C BEZ, Fowler, Rose, Reavie, and Dylan WU.
The Tidbits
Each week, Tambo rounds up the best free information from the world wide web and aggregates it all into one helpful Twitter thread. You should read it.
COLONIAL TIDBITS THREAD
WEATHER
This is the best weather report we’ve seen so far this year. So expect an unforeseen 40mph wind gusts to emerge the precise moment when the guy you need to win is on the course.
DRAFTKINGS
I reasoned through my strategy this week on the show. Spolier: 100% Scheffler.
WATCH: Colonial DraftKings Picks, Lineups & Ownership
I also decided to down my stakes this week to work through the kinks in my game. I had good success with this last year, where I started playing the $0.50 mini-max and trying out a 150 LU strategy and trying to see where I am going right and going wrong. Hopefully Scheffler doesn’t miss the cut.
Ownership
In terms of ownership this week, Scottie should lead the way between 30-40%, and frankly that doesn’t seem like enough based on the gap between him and the Finau/Hovland/Spieth/Homa/Kawa range.
After that, Tommy, Spieth, Rose, Kawa, Hovland, Sungjae, Finau, Davis and Fowler should all come in around 15-20%. If you’re looking for the lower owned expensive guys it’s Burns, Homa, and Si Woo.
Beyond the top end of the prices expect C Bez, Buck Fuck, Jaeger, Good, Grillo, and Eric Cole to be the popular plays from their respective price ranges.
Carson Young will be the highest owned of the low 6K, while Wu, Bhatia, Chez, and Martin should garner a decent amount of looks from the high 6s. Not enough to keep me off them however.
I threw it out to you, the peoples, about who the best 6K plays are this week. Since I went ALLLLL the Iron Schef, I needed to pepper this range. You can see my picks, and click the link to see who everyone else likes.
WHO TO PLAY IN THE 6K RANGE
PROPS
If you follow along with the Dog or Pass podcast, you’ll know Cody gave out a finally shook off the cold streak in a BIG way and gave out 125/1 winner with a 10-leg PRP. Nice way to get off the block. In the meantime, Cody’s co-host, and my producer, have just been dummying Prize Picks on USFL props.
LINK TO TWEET
You can get a deposit match of up to $100 with code “DOP” at Prize Picks btw.
Get up to a $100 deposit match at Prize Picks using code “DOP” at sign up
We just go on Run The Sims, take a look at the offering and find all of the ones that are projected to be 80% or more winners. Obviously, you’re not always going to win, but if you make enough combos, you’ll be coming out wayyyyyyyy ahead.
RUN THE SIMS SPRING FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS/TOOLS
There are no lines out for USFL yet for this week. Since that’s the case, I’ll done back some of my winnings on RD1 Colonial props.
— PM