Cognizant Classic Picks, Bets, Preview, Early Weather
Geoff and I preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2024 Cognizant Classic Picks, bets, and One and Done while providing their 2024 Mexico Open Recap and LIV Jeddah Picks.
WATCH: Cognizant Classic Picks, Bets, Preview, One & Done | LIV Jeddah Bets, Anthony Kim | Mexico Open Recap
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2024 Cognizant Classic
Field: 144 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Lineup Lock: Thursday, Feb. 29
Defending Champ: Chris Kirk
The unfortunate schedule placement was the end of Honda as the title sponsor. Ending the 42-year sponsorship with the tournament. Even before the advent of the signature events, the upcoming run of big money tournaments sealed its fate. If you’re an elite player and you see Bay Hill ($20M purse) and THE PLAYERS ($25M purse) coming the next two weeks, the aprrox $8.5M offered up in Palm Beach Garden is incentive enough to delay coming to Florida.
Maybe it was the shock of losing the longest sponsor on the PGA Tour, but there’s a few more bigger names in the field in 2024. I guess they’re trying to do right by Cognizant. Which, so you don’t have to waste the time Googling it, is: An American multinational information technology services and consulting company headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey.
Rory McIlroy headlines the field. He hasn’t played this event since 2018 when he came T59. He missed the cut at PGA National the two years previous as well. He did win and lose in a playoff in 2012 and 2014 however. Matt Fitzpatrick is teeing off in Palm Beach Gardens for the first time since 2017. He’s never finished better than T68 in two starts. And we’re getting the first career appearance for Tom Kim.
Beyond that, Cameron Young, Shane Lowry, Min WOOOOOO Lee, Ryan Fox, Justin Rose, Corey Conners, Ben An, Luke List, Eric Cole, JT Poston, Matthieu Pavon, Rickie Fowler, Tom Hoge, Thomas Detry, Beau Hossler, Mark Hubbard, Akshay Bhatia , Jake Knapp, Gary Woodland join former winners Russell Henley, Chris Kirk, Sepp Straka, and Sungjae Im.
Rasmus Hojgaard is making his first PGA start of 2024. In five starts on the DP World Tour so far this year, the other Hojgaard hasn’t finished worse than T11. His best finish was a solo second at the Raz Al Khadijah Championship when he lost to Thorbjorn Olesen, who is also in the field for the second straight week. Thunder Bear made the cut in Mexico after going T8/T21/Win through the Middle East too begun the season. Both are making their tournament debuts.
Then there’s Daniel Berger. He’s piled up three Top 4 finishes at PGA National in his seven career starts but has never been able to hoist a novelty check. His first two starts after missing 18 months were pretty spotty, but his T28 in Phoenix was very encouraging. It doesn’t sound like that great of a result, however Berger gained off the tee and finished 14th in SG: APP for the week. A far more positive stat profile that his first two starts. The putter was about break even; something which has rarely been an issue at this course. In his past five starts at the Cognizant he’s gaining +2.98 SG: PUTT per start.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 4s Gained
Total Driving Gained (Spilt 70% DD + 30% DA)
Opportunities Gained
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Course
PGA National (Champion)
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,147
Greens: Bermuda
Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 60
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 15
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 199 yards
- All four had a bogey rate over 15.5% and a birdie rate under 12%
- Kirk bogeyed Hole #17 on Thursday but that was the only stroke he'd drop on his way to victory on a Par 3
Par 4's (11): Average distance - 430 yards
- Hole #6 can be a day ruiner: the double or worse rate (7.3%) isn't much different than the birdie rate (8.1%) ... this is where Kirk separated himself last year (-1 on this hole)
- Four of the five easiest Par 4's come on the front-9 (holes 1-4-8-9)
Par 5's (3): Average distance - 541 yards
*Switched Hole #10 from a Par 4 to a Par 5 (was the 2nd toughest hole as a Par 4)
- Kirk played the Par 5 #3 in 4-under par last year (Even on the Par 5 #18)
- The two Par 5's that were here last season were the two easiest holes on the course by a wide margin (both with a birdie rate north of 32% and an eagle rate over 1.5%)
Past Winners
2023: Chris Kirk -14
2022: Sepp Straka -10
2021: Matt Jones -12
2020: Sungjae Im -6
2019: Keith Mitchell -9
2018: Justin Thomas -8
2017: Rickie Fowler -12
2016: Adam Scott -9
2015: Paddy Harrington -6
2023: Chris Kirk (-14, beat Eric Cole in a playoff)
- His 62 on Friday was the round of the tournament and carried him (that was the only round in which he was better than Cole)
- The four best putters for the week all cashed Top 5 pay days
9 of the top 13 finishers lost distance off the tee on the field
-14 was the lowest winning score since the tournament moved to PGA National in 2007; previous low: -13 (Camilo Villegas, 2010)
Shane Lowry earned his second consecutive Top 5
2022: Sepp Straka (-10, beat Shane Lowry by 1 stroke)
- He was seven off the pace after Thursday, but a Friday 64 was the round of the day and his best of the tournament
- Four of the top six finishers lost strokes on the Par 5's (five of the top six gained on the Par 3's)
Four of the top seven in Prox: 200+ cashed top 10 paychecks
Of the Top 24 finishers, 22 gained strokes on approach (Lowry and Kitayama were Top 3 in approach and on the final leaderboard)
2021: Matt Jones (-12, beat Brandon Hagy by 5 strokes)
- Jones led by three strokes after shooting the best round of the tournament (61) on Thursday (that was his only round better than 68, but it was eight shots better than Hagy and proved to be enough)
- Scoring was tough ... Jones didn't card anything worse than a 70, but the other six players in the top seven all have a 72 or worse to their name (Hagy had a 76 on Saturday and still finished runner-up)
- The top 12 finishers all gained with the flat stick (eight of the top 11 putters cashed top 15 paychecks)
- Six of the top 12 finishers lost distance off the tee, but they all gained in fairways
10 of the top 12 finishers gained strokes putting from 15-20 feet
17 of the top-18 finishers gained Good Drives on the field (eight of them were below average in distance)
2020: Sungjae Im (-6, beat Mackenzie Hughes by 1 stroke)
- Im shot a 66 on Friday (best round of the day), six better than Hughes (he matched Hughes' 66 on Sunday to earn the win)
- The top 16 finishers all gained in Approach (five of the top seven in SG:APP cashed top 10 paychecks)
- 14 of the top 16 finishers gained Proximity from 175-200 yards
- 19 of the top 20 finishers gained strokes to the field on the Par 3's
2019 Keith Mitchell (-9, beat Rickie Fowler and Brooks Koepka by 1 stroke)
His 66 on Friday was his best of the week, the third best of the day, and three better than Koepka (it was the only day Mitchell was better than Koepka)
Nothing spectacular, but Mitchell was no worse than 70 in all four rounds with a final round of 67 being enough to hold off the field.
- 14 of the top 15 finishers gained strokes off the tee (Jim Furyk being the exception and he just lost 0.1)
- 18 of the top 19 finishers gained strokes to the field on the Par 3's
- Four of the top six finishers gained on the field in Prox: 175-200 and Prox: 200+
2018: Justin Thomas (-8, playoff win over Luke List)
He was just a shot back after Thursday and his 65 on Saturday was the round of the day
The Top 12 finishers all gained strokes putting. In fact, of the Top 6 putters for the week, five finished the week T8 or better.
2017: Rickie Fowler (-12, four clear of Morgan Hoffman and Gary Woodland)
He posted a Top 5 round in each of the first three days (66-66-65), allowing him to cruise to victory on Sunday
Handle the short putts and survive the long ones. Seven of the Top 9 finishers gained strokes BOTH from 0-5 and 5-10 feet on the ground. But seven of the Top 9 finishers lost strokes in either the 20-25 foot or the 25+ foot bucket.
Chris Kirk an outlier? The previous champions had a track record of sucking at this event (Kirk won after finishing 7th in 2022)
2022: Sepp Straka - Never had a top 25 here prior, 33rd in 2021
2021: Matt Jones - No top 35's here in his previous 4 strips, 47th in 2020
2020: Sungjae Im - 51st at this event in 2019
2019 Keith Mitchell - Missed the cut here in 2018
Notes
One simple cross-country flight later, and the field is demanding crates from the manufacturers instead of sleeves. That, or swimming lessons slightly more advanced than Gentile Aqua Fit.
The water/sand combo makes this an extremely difficult scrambling course. The GIR rate is only 60% (against the TOUR average of 66%) and the historic scrambling percentage is just 55% for the field. Normally, you’d assume a short game would be a defining trail of winners at PGA National, but you’re not thinking of scrambling in the proper context. Yes, being solid around the greens is always important. Unsurprisingly, no amount of chipping wizardry can mitigate wet tee shots. A missed GIR this week doesn’t mean putting from the fringe, it may be attempting to get it up and down from 163 yards after a drop. Every time, no; if you’re like me, you always think of worst-case scenarios with golf.
The omnipresent aqua lurks menacingly like a mysterious neighbour in a kids’ movie. Except the water at PGA National doesn’t secretly have a heart of gold. It’s built of squares on the scorecard. There are two ungodly difficult stretches on the scorecard. Plural. The Bear Trap, (holes 15/16/17) gets its own dedicated TV feed, so obviously everyone knows how tough that plays. However, hole 5/6/7 have played slightly more arduous.
Since 2007, each troika has finished almost an identical +0.64 over par; give or take a few thousands of a stroke. They tie for the third most difficult three-hole stretches on the PGA TOUR (non-majors, of course). 5/6/7 may not have a catchy name, PGA LIVE feed, or Insta-friendly statue, but when you scan your lineups Thursday and wonder where the 80s came from, take a quick gander at these six holes.
The Bear Trap is death by a thousand paper cuts, while holes 5-7 yank you off the stage around the neck with crooked numbers.
Over 1,700 balls have been hit into the water in The Bear Trap since 2007. For the first time in course history, no player made it through The Bear Trap without making a bogey in 2021. It didn’t play as tough as it could have in 2022, either. Yes, the field was a combined +238 for the week, which was down from +277 in 2020 and the all-time high of +516 in 2018.
Of note, this will be Ryan Palmer’s 500th career PGA start. He played in this event for the first time in 2004 and only missed it twice since it moved to PGA National in 2007. In his past 10 starts in Palm Beach Gardens he’s made the cut eight times, generated two Top 4 finishes and lost in a playoff. He’s also the worst player in Bear Trap history. In his career, Palmer is +48. More than 10 strokes worse than any other player in tournament history. He actually got through the Trap -1 in round one last year before ejecting down the stretch, going into the water on 15 and 17, playing those two holes at +5.
Annually one of the toughest courses on TOUR with water is in play on 15 holes. Over 6,400 balls have plunged into the water since 2007. If Florida had beavers they’d have an intricate dam constructed at this point to water the grounds without electronic irrigation. There are also 60 sand traps scattered across the grounds, and they’re not simple up-and-down bunkers. They’re going to cause problems.
There were changes made between 2022 and 2023, including a bunker renovation which included removal of bunkers on No. 13 and 16 and bunkerage reductions on No. 17 and 18.
Then there’s the wind: And no, we’re not talking about the Arlen Soccer team.
I’m referring to the swirling and gusting of air fostered by the uneven heating of the Earth by the sun in combination with its own rotation. The wind generally rears its gusty head in Palm Beach Gardens at some point, which transforms a tough course into one with scorecard colors not normally seen on our reflection spectrum.
WIND TOWER: JUNO BEACH
Early Weather Forecast
You’d think a course under 7,200 yards would favor almost any skill set. Logically, the more accurate, shorting-hitting players would have an advantage by not always being in the water. That hasn’t been the case, however. Recent history has leaned toward the longer hitters by the time Sunday concludes. With the Matt Jones year being term notable exception.
Like with the low scrambling number, PGA National has one of the lowest driving distance averages of any course: 272 yards compared to the TOUR average of 284 yards. Thing is, since the deep drivers must lay up, their accuracy improve, yet they still have the benefit of the short clubs onto greens. It makes the Par 5s far more gettable, and longer hitters may have an advantage in cutting through the wind if it picks up.
The cut line has been +2/+3/+2/+4/+3/+6 the past six years.
The Florida Swing also means a change in grass time. After a month of Poa (and Paspalum last week) it’s time for the Bermuda swing until the TOUR takes off for Texas late in March. Here’s a list of the best Bermuda putters of the past 36 rounds.
Also, shown in the rankings are Past 12 Rounds at PGA National, Past 36 on bentgrass, Past 36 on Poa, and and past 75 overall on all surfaces combined.
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While it appears like the Top 5 all struggle at this course, there’s a bit more to the story. Derty and Montgomery have never played in this event, so they’re at zero. Ramey and Suh only have four rounds to their names; Ramey lost over four strokes on the greens in 2022 and gained strokes in his two rounds last year.
DraftKings Notes
Showdown: With No. 10 changing to a Par 5, the annual DK showdown mini-hack may be flipped. Since birdie streaks are going to be sparse this week, players starting on hole No. 10 used to have a slightly better chance of running three in a row together and earning those very valuable bonus points. Hole No. 18, Par 5, is the second easiest on the course. Hole No. 1 is the third easiest (18% birdie rate), so if you got lucky on No. 2 or No. 17, you’re going streaking. Previously, the other turn (8-9-10) has a pair of easy holes, but #10 was the second toughest hole on the course (just a 7% birdie rate). Yes, it’s been lengthen by about 30 yards, but the birdie rate should now be 25%+, conservatively. So, in 2024, starting on No. 1 is the preferred showdown play if you’re between players.
Picks/Bets
Daniel Berger 37/1 — Maybe it’s too early with this, but I was super encouraged by his ball striking in Phoenix. If he can keep up his accurate driving and continue to build back to his former elite irons, the putting issues since his return may be extinguished at PGA National. In seven career starts in this event, he’s lost strokes on the greens one time; gaining over three strokes putting per start in his past three appearances. He lost in a playoff to Paddy in his tournament debut in 20145, and reeled off consecutive T4 finishes in his past two starts pre-injury. Yes, he gagged away a huge lead early Sunday in 2022, but it feels like he’ll get a win here at some point in his career, may as well be now.
Carson Young 125/1 (With 5 Places) — Gained almost two stroke on approach again in Mexico after two straight starts over 3+ SG: APP. He hits more fairways than most and has actually been excellent from 175+ over the past 12 rounds (123rd 175-200; 6th 200+) in proximity. The putter has been wonkier than expected after his hot run on the greens most of last season, but he gained with the flat stick at Vidanta and picked up +4.2 SG: PUTT in his first start here a year ago. Will play first round leader too.
Other bets in (more breakdown in Wednesday newsletter)
PGA Outright
Fitz 33 (may still cash that out but wanted to grab that number before it crashed. It’s down to 25 already)
Mitchell 45
Chan Kim 175 (With 5 Places
FRL
Vegas 110
Young 125
LIV Jeddah
Brooks 10
Mito 35
— PM