F1 DFS
Before we get to golf, F1 is returning and Run The Sims is the perfect tool to leverage on of the softest DraftKings games. The sims were incredibly profitable last season, and if you think they can repeat, NOW is the time to get in on year-long package. As always code “MAYO” will get you 10% off.
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GOLF HOT LINKS
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BETS
Did I go a bit overboard this week? It’s possible. This is what happens when you have a nice chunk in your account. Thanks Jake Knapp!
Matt Fitzpatrick 33/1 — I jumped on a number I thought was going to be crushed and, while it did drop, it wasn’t to the extent I would have expected. I mulled over cashing out Fitz for Kim or Lowry on the Tuesday Best Bets show with Rasa and Byron, but I don’t have the mental game strong enough to watch Fitz win after I cashed out on him. Fortunately, it’s not all doom and gloom. Despite the horrible recent form, the Brit’s annually been far better in Florida than on the West Coast and his short and long term skill profile rates out quite well for PGA National.
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Daniel Berger 37/1 — Maybe it’s too early with this, but I was super encouraged by his ball striking in Phoenix. If he can keep up his accurate driving and continue to build back to his former elite irons, the putting issues since his return may be extinguished at PGA National. In seven career starts in this event, he’s lost strokes on the greens one time; gaining over three strokes putting per start in his past three appearances. He lost in a playoff to Paddy in his tournament debut in 20145, and reeled off consecutive T4 finishes in his past two starts pre-injury. Yes, he gagged away a huge lead early Sunday in 2022, but it feels like he’ll get a win here at some point in his career, may as well be now.
Keith Mitchell 45/1— With three Top 20 finishes in his last five starts, the 2019 winner may just need some comforting confines to get him over the top. The driving has been immaculate in 2024, gaining 2.5 SG: OTT per start, and now the irons have started to click too. Maybe he wasted a spike approach week in Mexico (as it’s quite unlikely he gains over eight strokes again), however there’s a good chance he can quell his currently on and around the green with the TOUR now in Florida. In five career starts at the Cognizant, Mitchell has never dropped strokes putting to the field. Has long as the driver continues to cooperate at its currently level, Mitchell can get take out a lot of this course’s difficultly with aggressive strategy off the tee.
Tom Kim 40/1 — I kept wavering on cashing out Fitz for Kim at the same price, then was offered a generous 30% on someone, so I took Kim up to 40 and got them both. I like this course set up for him as he’s only dropped strokes to the field twice in the past calendar year, and the approach play has been having gained 6.6 strokes on approach between RIV and Phoenix. We just need one of his patented scorching putter weeks and he may run away with it. Now, those are few and far between, but when he gains, he tends to be near the top of the field.
Akshay Bhatia 90/1 — Had it going in Phoenix until the weather turned cold in the first round while he was on the course and he tanked. He haven’t seen him since, but overall in 2024 he’s picked up three Top 15s in five starts, with the biggest improvement being on the greens. It could be a small sample playing tricks on me, but his switch to the longer putter is showing dividends already. After a stretch of losing on the greens in nine straight starts last year, he’s actually gained in seven of nine. He consistently gains off the tee through a mix of solid distance and fantastic accuracy, and every few events his irons pop. In his 19 measured starts over rte past 12 months, Bhatia’s gained over five strokes on approach five times. One of which at PGA National in 2023. And that list doesn’t include the non-shot link starts like Puerto Rico, Cabo, Bermuda, and the Barracuda where he went 2nd/T10/T20/Win. Basically you’ll know early if he’s in the groove.
Carson Young 125/1 (5 Places) — Gained almost two stroke on approach again in Mexico after two straight starts over 3+ SG: APP. He hits more fairways than most and has actually been excellent from 175+ over the past 12 rounds (123rd 175-200; 6th 200+) in proximity. The putter has been wonkier than expected after his hot run on the greens most of last season, but he gained with the flat stick at Vidanta and picked up +4.2 SG: PUTT in his first start here a year ago. Will play first round leader too.
Robert MacIntyre 125/1 (5 Places) — being on vacation last week, I didn’t even notice Bobby Mac in the field Mexico field at his elevated odds. It now seems super strange to me that after a good week a guy from the winning Ryder Cup team in September remains triple digits again. It was the putter that killed him at Torrey and in Phoenix, and while it’s a very limited sample, he has gained on the greens in both career Florida starts, and actually picked up 3.4 SG:PUTT his last time on Bermuda at the Sony. But really, that’s just a fancy way of saying this number feels too big for his talent level.
Chan Kim 175 (5 Places) — 4Chan may only be a play at days venues. He won twice on KFT at the end of last season and has Top 15s in Mexico and AMEX so far this year on the big tour. So this could be a complete disaster. Still, plus distance and above average accuracy while sitting Top 5 in the field in opportunities gained over the past 24 rounds. If he doesn’t finishes Top 5 this week, I hope his flames out with consecutive 80s to juice up the odds for when I bet him in Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic over the next month.
Jimmy Stanger 300/1 (5 Places) — I really only bet him so I could write that he’s such a shitty iron player because he tries to play after sitting on his hand. Only to realize his name is “Stanger” not “Stranger” and it wouldn’t let me cash out the bet. Now, he did gain 7 strokes off the tee in Mexico last week. That was almost two full strokes clear of second. Not matter the tournament that’s something to make note of. Like I mentioned with Mitchell, if he can have the confidence to really get aggressive (successfully) with the smoke wagon, a lot of difficulty can be stricken from this course. Plus, he’s a Florida guy so many he can actually putt on these greens. Also, I almost write he finished 8th at the US Open in 2020. But it was the Utah Open in 2020.
LIV Jeddah
Brooks 12/1 — He’s won here each of the last two years and he’s not the betting favorite. Seems good enough for me.
Mito 32/1 — Enters in better form than early in the year after a Top 5 finish in Oman last week in a field full of mid-tier LIV dudes and a bunch of Asian Tour scrubs.
Andy Ogletree 150/1 (5 Places) — Ogletree has been horrendous in his two LIV starts this season, yet I hope a return to the arid elements of the Middle East sparks something like we saw last year on the Asian Tour when he went 9th/T7/Win through Saudi, Oman and Qatar.
SDC Championship
Rozner 27/1
Nacho Elvira 50/1
Matthias Schwab 100/1 (5 Places)
I listened to the DP World Tour Picks & Bets show on MMN, then I read Axis’ newsletter and decided to tail one pick from each of them. Sky and Tom are going for three straight winners on the DPWT Pod.
TEE TIMES
I built out 33/33/33 with AM/PM, PM/AM and mixed this week across 60 lineups.
Weather Forecast
No obvious advantage this week in the splits. Maybe, the AM wave Thursday may get less wind in round one, but they may run into the elements, albeit briefly, on Friday. As mentioned, I decided to wave stack anyway since it’s been working really well for me so far this season on DraftKings.
WIND TOWER: JUNO BEACH
DRAFTKINGS
Tambo and I chatted about the stock stuff like weather and ownership, but I also got him to break down how the new $5K range we’ve seen the past two weeks impacts the slate.
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Basically, it allows for more flexibility in lineups if you have a stand in that range, but since players are more spread out in price, specially with fewer names in the 7K range, it should make it easier to hammer down which plays in particular eyes will flock to and which will be let unowned. Take the 7.5K-8.5K range for example. With lineups and information still coming in, I would expected the names in red like Svensson an Bez to come in higher. Hoge and Hubbard to a lesser extent too (and List seems to be getting late steam). But without the plethora of names we usually get in this range you can make your pivots pretty easily if that’s the route you want to go
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On the show we tried a series of different builds, starting out with how we think the field is going to build, then how we’d shift those lineups for us. Expect a lot of Rory with Svennson. Bez and Ghim. And a lot of Henley with either Cole or An.
I’ve decided to full fade Sveeny for Pendrith, and drop to $5,100 and sue some Parker Coody. Along with my wave stacks, I think this makes me different enough.
— PM