Canadian Open Picks, Bets, Course Preview
Tuesday Update: Thorbjornsen, Theegala and Kuchar have all withdrawn.
QUICK BETS
MacIntyre +3300
Pendrith +3300
Thorbjornsen +7000 (8 Places)
BOMBS
Castillo +11000 (8 Places)
Rozner +15000 (8 Places)
Tosti +15000 (8 Places)
LIV VIRGINIA
Ancer +6600
CH3 +6600
SATURDAY, SATURDAY, SATURDAY
Get your tickets to PME CUST CORNER LIVE in Toronto on June 7th. We’ll be doing a meet and greet with everyone after the show as well. Going to be a great time. When are you ever going to get another chance to have a beer with Cam? Smoke outside with Cust & Kenny? Or rip a vape pen with Geoff? Here’s your chance!
GET YOUR PME LIVE JUNE 7th TICKETS NOW
2025 CANADIAN OPEN
Field: 156 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
First Tee: June 5, 2025
Defending Champion: Robert MacIntyre
HOT LINKS
Canadian Open Golf 2025 Picks & Bets, One & Done | Memorial 2025 Recap | LIV Golf Virginia Picks
2025 Canadian Open Golf Picks, Research, Sleepers, Course Preview
CUST EATS Vol. 1
Despite being the world’s third oldest Open championship and second longest running event on the PGA Tour (non-Major), the Canadian Open was in serious trouble in the mid-2010s. It was played at a lame course and attracted C-Level stars (and Dustin Johnson because of RBC obligations).
Since, the Canadian Open has been a benefactor of a series of unrelated events that really worked in its favor. Starting in 2019.
Getting switched on the schedule from the week after The Open to the week before the US Open was a major coup for field strength and schedule importance. Also that year Rory McIlroy came to Hamilton and won by seven strokes. Although the PGA tournaments can’t pay players to show up and play, they can schedule corporate events that week and pay millions for speaking appearances. Savvy move as it turns out.
After missing two years following COVID, Rory and an all-star team of golfers retuned in 2022 to combat the recently announced first wave of LIV signings, which also featured the return of a course located in Toronto proper for the first time since 1968. The crowds were great, the field was awesome, and Rory won again.
Nick Taylor’s famous putt to win in 2023 with team Canada and Team Europe cheering on the players leading to an epic on-green celebration as Taylor became the first Canadian to win since Pat Fletcher in 1954. Both at city courses which allowed easy access to the course and created Waste Management Open North vibe, albeit far more chill.
It returned to Hamilton in 2024 and, because of the Rory influence, the field started to mamic an international all-star game of sorts. While the best American players generally skip the event to focus on the US Open following Jack’s event, the best worldwide PGA players have all started to come every year.
Another unplanned positive has been the timing for college players to turn pro at this event. Morikawa did it in 2019. Aberg did it in 2023. This year Luke Clanton and Gordon Sargent are will be making their first starts as professionals.
Hopefully this doesn’t all change with the move to TPC Toronto as the new long-term host location. Despite the name, TPC Toronto isn’t in Toronto. It’s about an hour drive from downtown Toronto in a town called Alton. (No relation to the Real World Las Vegas and Challenge persona). And that’s without traffic. Which isn’t a thing that exists in Toronto.
Will the same crowds make the journey? Especially when almost everyone will be driving versus taking the subway or a quick uber? Will the players enjoy kicking it at an airport hotel or an isolated resort over a 5-Star luxury hotel? Will those same vibes exist at an expansive course against the sardine packed city courses? As this is my national open I certainly hope it’s a success. But I do worry.
At least for 2025 the field remains loaded for a non-Major/Signature event, with eight of the Top 25 in the world rankings (Rory, Ludvig, Lowry, Rose, Bobert Mac, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, and Wyndham Clark). The international influence is felt with Detry, Pendrith, Taylor, Ben An, Tom Kim, both Hojgaards, Pavon, Perez, Hall, Fox, Moller, EVR, Noren, Ryo, Mac Hughes). Then there’s the RBC guys in Sam Burns, Cam Young, and Theegala. Clanton and Sargent making their pro debuts. And Max Homa, Eric Cole, Rodgers, Mitchell, Knapp, Kitiyama, Ghim, Smalley, Thorbjornsen, and more all getting in some extra reps before the US Open a week from now.
KEY STATS
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Par 4s 450-500
Putting 5-15”
Proximity 175+
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
COURSE
TPC Toronto
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,389
Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Mix
Average Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
Bunkers: 48
Water Hazards: 3
First year at TPC Toronto. It will host again in 2026.
Yardage within 15 yards (on scorecard) of US Open next week at Oakmont.
Renovation included full bunker renovation, altered grassing lines, addition of professional tees.
Routing for the tournament includes No. 8 and No. 17 being switched.
I spoke with Eric Patterson from The Score about the course on the research show, if you missed that.
WATCH/LISTEN: TPC TORONTO COURSE PREVIEW
E Patt also gave out his quick notes on how the course is expected to play…
Past Winners
2024: Robert MacIntyre (-16, one clear of Ben Griffin) [Hamilton]
2023: Nick Taylor (-17, playoff win over Tommy Fleetwood) [Oakdale]
2022: Rory McIlroy (-19, two clear of Tony Finau) [St. Georges]
2019: Rory McIlroy (-22, seven clear of Shane Lowry and Webb Simpson) [Hamilton]
Multi-time winners at this event since 1970: McIlroy (2019 and 2022), Jhonattan Vegas (2016-17), Jim Furyk (2006-07), Steve Jones (1989 and 1997), Nick Price (1991 and 1994), Greg Norman (1984 and 1992), Curtis Strange (1985 and 1987), Bruce Lietzke (1978 and 1982), Lee Trevino (1971, 1977, and 1979), and Tom Weiskopf (1973 and 1975)
Past Winner Notes
2024: Robert MacIntyre (+8000)
- The top 3 putters for the week finished 1-3-7 on the final leaderboard, highlighted by Bobby Mac picking up 11.2 strokes with the flat stick
- Four of the top-6 in terms of driving distance cashed top-10 paychecks for the week
2023: Nick Taylor (+6000)
- The top 5 putters for the week finished 2-25-3-9-6. Justin Lower is the outlier there (25th), but that's a pretty impressive finish for someone who lost 2.7 strokes from tee-to-green
- 9 of the top 11 finishers gained ground on the field in terms of proximity from 150-175 yards
2022: Rory McIlory (+900)
- The top 7 putters for the week finished 7-13-4-18-2-53-1 (Wynndham Clark finished T-7 thanks to the best putting week in the field -- he bled 3.1 strokes on approach, 19th worst for the week)
- Four of the top 6 in driving distance finished with at least a share of 7th place (including Rory, who won despite losing five fairways for the week)
2019: Rory McIlroy (+1000)
- 18 of the top 19 finishers gained ground on approach ... 17 of the top 19 finishers gained ground around-the-green
- Rory was the longest golfer for the wek and won -- the rest of the top 6 was filled with losers in terms of distance off the tee (Brandt Snedeker and Matt Kuchar being the featured members of the positional golf strategy as they tied one another for fourth place)
2024 First Round Leaders
62 - David Skinns (followed it up with 71-73 before a Sunday 67)
63 - Sam Burns (eight shots worse on Friday) and Sean O'Hair (his only round in the 60's)
2023 First Round Leaders
67 - Four way tie that included three players (Corey Conners, Justin Lower, and Chesson Hadley) who failed to finish better than 20th for the week
*Nick Taylor was eight off the pace after Thursday (75) before shooting 67 or better in each of the final three rounds
2022 First Round Leaders
63 - Wyndham Clark (his best round by 5 strokes for the week)
64 - Matt Fitzpatrick (followed it up with 70-70 over the next two rounds)
2019 First Round Leaders
63 - Keegan Bradley (71-72-71 the rest of the way on his way to a T-44 finish)
64 - Five way tie that included a pair of top-7 finishers in Shane Lowry and Sungjae Im
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OTHER TPC TORONTO EVENTS
When TPC Toronto was played in July 2019 we got LONG DONG Paul Barjon winning at -25 followed by Taylor Pendrith and Jake Knapp at the top of the leaderboard. Hayden Buckley & Grayson Sigg, who are also in the field this week, finished inside the Top 10 as well.
It played as a Par 72 that year.
In 2023, the course saw a full-scale renovation led by Ian Andrew - who worked with Carrick initially on all three Osprey Valley courses - to transform the course into a venue for high-level competition in preparation for the 2025 RBC Canadian Open.
“The renovation is all about how the course plays,” says Andrew. “Over the process of the renovation, we went from creating a public golf course where championships can be played, to creating a championship golf course that the public can play.”
With repositioning of every bunker on the course (along with reconstruction using the Billy Bunker System), narrowing of fairways at key landing areas, construction of new tee boxes to lengthen the course to 7,445 yards, and introduction of shortgrass runoff areas around several greens, the course has been re-imagined as a test for the world’s best players.
Andrew says the focus of the renovation was on emphasizing tee-to-green play and providing opportunities for players to separate themselves from the field.
“Most of the bunkering is where players want to be hitting their approach shots from. You’re going to find some players that will play some safe shots away from trouble, but they can’t do that everywhere and still score,” says Andrew. “They’re going to need to be play a little more aggressive in order to truly compete.”
FlightLine Golf served as the general contractor, with work beginning in June 2023 and accelerating when the course closed to the public in August 2023. The North course re-opened for play on May 9, 2024.
In September 2024, the course played host to the Fortinet Cup Championship (the season-ending event of the 2024 PGA TOUR Americas schedule) and provided a stout test. On a Tour where the 36-hole cut is regularly 6-under par or lower, the course played 2.137 strokes over par per round and saw a 36-hole cut at 3-over par, the highest all season on Tour, with a winning score of 5-under par by Will Cannon.”
Sponsors invite for this week John Keefer was T3 that week fyi.
PICKS
Taylor Pendrith +3300 — The Canadian is such an obvious pick that he’ll probably end up missing the cut. Pendrith has likely played this course more than anyone in the field and enters with B2B weeks of almost 10 SG:T2G performances against stacked fields at the PGA Championship and Memorial. He was actually the only player who bested Scottie in approach play last week.
Robert MacIntyre +3300 — The defending champ, albeit at a different course, has started to see an uptick in his ball striking as of late and the putter has warmed up with the weather. I worry that is is just a bombers track and Bobert doesn’t have enough distance to make everything easier on himself, but he’s become Mr. National Open and has the game trending properly.
Ricky Castillo +11000 — In case Rory just crushes everyone, it’s nice to have a few long shots who can make the week with a high finish. Castillo possesses plus distance, elite short term iron play, quality chipping, and a sweet shell necklace. This course has the potential to play a lot like TPC Criag Ranch, a spot where Castillo finished T5 less than a month ago.
Tosti & Rozner +15000 —Tosti mashes it and no player has been better from 175+ with his irons than Rozner over the past two months. Problem is, they both love missing 3 foot putts. What I presuppose is: What if one of them doesn’t this week?