Canadian Open Final Bets, UD RD1, Weather, DK Ownership
ROUND 1 PICK’EM
Tambo and I talked through a Round 1 Underdog entry for Round 1 in Hamilton that features higher sides on both birdies and bogeys. in 2019 there were 7 Holes with Birdie rate over 20% and 8 Holes with Bogey or worse rate over 20%.
Additionally, we found the temperatures for the first groups off in the morning are not going to be scorching around 11 degree celsius (52 Fahrenheit in case you were wondering). Not freezing by any stretch, but a lot colder than PGA TOUR players are used to this time of year. So we went over bogeys on those guys and higher birders in the warmer afternoon.
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Don’t forget about the PME Classic R1 draft on Underdog either. We need this to fill or our RAKE FREE money is going away.
WATCH: DraftKings Picks + Underdog Pick’Em Rd 1
Canadian Open Bets
Shane Lowry — There’s a Portrush and Wentworth comp for Hamilton based on the course architect, two tracks where Lowry has won in Europe, and he did finish runner-up to Rory (albeit well behind) here in 2019. There’s always the worry the flat stick is so bad he has no chance, something which is very much in play this week again, but if he doesn’t kill himself putting, his accuracy and irons will be enough to propel him into contention.
Cam Young — Young’s posted Top 10s in the last three non-signature events/Majors he’s played in. He’ll eventually win on TOUR and this type of field is his best shot.
Akshay Bhatia — Following his win at Valero his number instantly tanked. It could have had something to do with his rib injury hew played through in that playoff or maybe a come down after notching a win and immediately playing in majors and signature events. Potentially a combo of everything. Either way, Colonial was thew first non-elevated field he’s played in the pas two months, and while it resulted in a missed cut, he actually started hitting fairways again. Something that he did basically every event for two years prior to this recent lull. If he’s harnessed that power again, he’s still flashing elite upside with his irons and can spike with his putter at any moment. The number seems too large in a field this weak.
Aaron Rai — Expect much of the same as we always get from the Brit: A ton of strokes gained T2G where he immediately gives them all back with the putter. But maybe, just maybe, he doses’t this week?
Brice Garnett — There’s only so many courses where the entire field can theoretically compete for a win with any skill set. Hamilton is one of those courses. Garrett is incredible accurate off the tee, plays long Par 3s the best in the field over the last 24 rounds and sits in the Top 10 of greens I regulation. Already a winner in 2024, he’s coming off gaining six strike at the PGA Championship and has put together consecutive quality showings at shorter courses (T35 Sawgrass and T18 Heritage), but against much stronger fields.
David Lipsky — Another accuracy maven who gained 10 strikes on approach a week go. Number simply seemed too big.
Matt Anderson low Canadian 33/1 — What do I know about Matt Anderson? Not much, tbh. Outside of him leading the PGA TOUR Americas points list at the moment. That’s the combo of the former Canadian and Latino American tours. We’ve seen enough real players emerge from these tours over the years that there’s a chance we’re buying very low and a solid player in a short market with a big number. Or that he stinks and misses the cut by 10 strokes. But he’s off to a great start this season.
WEATHER
After rain softened up the course Monday and Tuesday, the weather in Hamilton looks ideal all four days. It may be a bit cold in the mornings but by 10/11am ET it’ll be find. There’s no discernible wave split I can see so I didn’t bother segregating DraftKings Lineups that way.
WIND TOWER: Dundas / Hamilton
TEE TIMES
DRAFTKINGS
Although he won 3 world championship seats worth round $60,000 last week, Tambo’s biggest accomplishment, in my mind, was actually besting me in our H2H. We went through ownership on the show, common builds, and did our weekly draft of players to try and build unique lineups.
WATCH: Canadian Open DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Final Bets, Weather
After Scottie set the all time ownership record a week ago, and it worked out, seeing Rory breach 40% in the $5 or $25 wouldn’t be shocking this time around. If the numbers, and my general sense, are any indication, Noren and/or Rai will be paired with him a ton. Maybe even one of those guys and David Thompson in the $7Ks. Fwiw, I like Daniel Berger more than Hell, Mr. Thompson. (I think he’s talking to you.)
Here’s a collection on the 6K/5K guys I’m filtering through some linueps:
Chan Kim
Ben Silverman
Brice Garnett
Ben Martin
Vik Perez
David Lipsky
Lanto Griffin
Matt Anderson
Smelly Kelly Kraft
— PM