Canadian Open Course, Bets, Soft Fantasy Props, Changes
CANADIAN OPEN SHOWS
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CANADIAN OPEN
Course: Hamilton Golf and CC
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,084
Greens: V8 creeping bentgrass
Number of Sand Bunkers: 88
Number of Water Hazards: 9
Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
Random Notes
Third Shortest course on PGA TOUR this year.
2019 renovation included reconstruction of tees, bunkers and greens on all 27 holes, a new irrigation system, practice putting green and practice area.
Course was named 2022 Golf Digest Best Renovation of the Year.
Play will be on West and South courses.
Area has benefited from a mild winter and early spring
Wentworth, Liverpool, and Portrush are also Harry Colt course designs.
Soft Fantasy Props?
This is perfect to fuck with the Underdog algo since these stats seem to be at odds with each other and actually will increase your payouts accordingly since they seem to be uncorrelated. May be a soft spot to take advantage if you can pick right. Here’s what I came up with off the hop.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit bonus up to $250 and tail this entry with this link.
COURSE
Par 3's (4): Average Distance - 212 yards
-The shortest one (Hole #16) basically plays at par ... the other three rank 2-3-4 in terms of difficulty, all owning a bogey-or-worse rate of at least 20.5%
-Even in Rory's Sunday 61, he only had one GIR on these Par 3's
Par 4's (12): Average Distance - 427 yards
-#18 is the toughest hole on the property (0.26 strokes over par on average with just a 5.5% birdie rate), but there are six Par 4's with a birdie rate north of 18% (including three in a four hole stretch from 9-12)
-#5 is the easiest of the Par 4's (308 yards) ... Rory hit the fairway once, but birdied it three times
Par 5's (2): Average Distance - 561yards
-As expected, the two easiest holes on the course, but with an eagle rate over 2.5% and a sub-8% bogey rate.
-Rory was under par on #17 in all four rounds last season, including a Sunday eagle
DRAFTKINGS STREAK
With 18 being the toughest hole on the course (the birdie rate of 5.5% isn't much higher than the double or worse rate of 3.3%), it's no fun going back-to-front. Going in order, to avoid the 18th, isn't any picnic either, as you either have to deal with #8 (third toughest) or #11 (fifth toughest) on your way to a streak.
You're not going to see a ton of streaks this week, the most challenging holes are generally spaced out, but by the numbers, going back-to-front (0.54% streak rate) is better than going the other way (0.40%), even with #18 in the mix (#17 being the easiest hole is the reason for the edge).
KEY STATS
Fairways Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
Opportunities Gained
Putting 5-15 Feet
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PAST WINNERS
2023: Nick Taylor (-17)
2022: Rory McIlroy (-19)
Hamilton ... 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22)
2018: Dustin Johnson (-23)
2017: Jhonny Vegas (-21)
2016: Jhonny Vegas (-12)
Hamilton ... 2012: Scott Piercy (-17)
WINNER PROFILE
2019: Rory McIlroy (-22, seven clear of Webb Simpson and Shane Lowry)
- 4 back after Thursday, but improved every round (67-66-64-61 ... the 61 was the second best of the week, Brandt Snedeker carded a 60 on Friday)
-The finishing position of the top-6 putters for the week (in order, starting with the best putter): T2-T4-T2-T4-1-7
-Five of the top-6 on the final leaderboard lost distance off the tee to the field (Rory leading the field in distance being the outlier -- though it did earn him the win)
*McIlroy missed the cut in his event prior (Memorial) but did post top 10 finishes in his two events prior to that poor showing (PGA and Wells Fargo)
2012: Scott Piercy (-17, one clear of William McGirt and Robert Garrigus)
-FRL with a 62, card three straight 67's after that (two better than McGirt and three better than Garrigus on Sunday)
-The finishing position of the top-6 putters for the week (in order, starting with the best putter): T2-T19-T28-1-T4-T4
-More success for the top distance player in the field (Garrigus), but spotty for the other longer players (four of the top seven in distance finished outside of the top 50)
*Piercy was trending in a great direction prior to the win with a 3rd place at John Deere and 12th at Greenbrier
COURSE CHANGES
I’d spell it out for you, butmy guy Eric Patterson did an amazing job going hole-by-hole noting the changes and how the course will play
READ EPATT’S THREAD ON HAMILTON G&CC
his tldr on everything
Here’s how the SG performance from each of the Top 20 shook out. A lot of fairways and putting. (Rory led in distance for the week but was also 6th in accuracy fwiw)
Weather
Rain has been dumping on the course the past two days so expect very soft conditions and some very low scores early in the week, if not the entire time. The weather looks about as good as it can be for May in Canada too. Still a bit cold in the very early morning, but warms up quite quickly.
WIND TOWER: Dundas / Hamilton
BETS
More detail coming in Wednesday’s post but as it stands right now…
Lowry 26/1
Young 40/1
Akshay 55/1
Rai 55/1
Garrnett 160/1 (+ Top 8)
Lipsky 300/1 (+ Top 8)
Others
Matt Anderson Top Canadian 33/1 (+ Top3)
Svensson, Garnett, Ben Martin, Lipsky First Round Leader
Secret Show
I recorded a long form update on the state of legalized gambling across the USA and Canada with Geoff Zochodne from Covers.com. That show will be released next week, unless you’re hurting for things to watch and the advanced link to the show is here in case you need a fix. Oh, if you ever wanted to know why DFS isn’t legal in Ontario, Geoff explains why and how there could be light at the end of the tunnel.
WATCH: State and Status of Legalized Betting in USA and Canada
— PM