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Kept it light last week and actually won. So, obviously, I need to keep that up. In case you missed it, Me, Cust, and Geoff did an emergency show when the PGA/LIV merger news broke. Check that out.
WATCH: PGATOUR/LIV/DP WORLD TOUR MERGE REACTION
WATCH: US OPEN PICKS/RESEARCH
WATCH: US OPEN DRAFTKINGS PICKS
US OPEN FREE MONEY
I’m giving away $500 in COLD HARD CASH along with a comped annual membership to Fantasy National (You need to be a member at Fantasy National already to win those tho. Here, have 20% OFF) Even if you done the reviews before, top it up and bump your name to the top of the list. ANDDDDDDDd if we get 200 new Apple Podcast Subs and reviews, I’ll chuck some more money in the pot to giveaway. He’s how you get your name in the draw:
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US OPEN First Look
Big thanks to Greg Les who jumped on with me for Friday’s research show with me to break down a course most of us don’t really know. He’ll break it down in-depth on that show, but here are some quick notes to get you started, including his best guess at approach buckets.
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Grass Types
Bentgrass greens, Bermuda rough/fairways. Greens can get very fast and slick, don’t believe they will have the rough super deep but ball can sink deep in the Bermuda rough and sit down, very difficult to control and very different from really any other US open.
Approach Type
Hard to predict not knowing how much firm/fast the fairways will play from when I did, but I avg about 315-320 off the tee so should be pretty good sense.
Certainly a good amount of long irons, 175-200 is going to be the dominant bucket. They will hype up #11 as being 310 yards, but doesn’t actually play that long, downhill downwind and “redan” style designed to bounce it up, really hit about a 250 yard shot when it says 310 on the card.
Caveat – they will likely move around tees a lot for variety in the setup on a day to day basis. #7 and #11 Par 3 will probably play different but still very long and tough, course is defined by its 480-510 yard Par 4s (2, 5, 13, 16, 17, 18). Par 3 15th they may play as short as 75 yards one day and tuck the pin on a super narrow strip of green.
BEST BALL/FANTASY FOOOTBALL
I haven’t forgotten about you, the loyal football fan. I chatted with Pete Overzet about early Best Ball drafts and the different strategies he’s seeing so far, along with the games people are targeting in Week 17 as their primary and secondary stacks. Then we just talk about random other shit. Always my favorite part.
WATCH: BEST BALL STRATEGY, Week 17 + More
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Tyrrell Hatton — If anyone can unseat Rory, it’s going to be the Brit. The approach remains elite and, all of a sudden, has become one of the premier driver in the world. The biggest key with Hatton (opposed to a Lowry most of all) is his putting. Hatton’s gained on the greens in six straight events, while picking up five Top 6 finishes in his past ten starts.
Tommy Fleetwood — Tambo sold me on Rose as the logical choice. I agreed. Then realized I Geoff is on a heater, it’s at his course, he’s there: I want to be there if it hits. So basically, Rose is almost guaranteed to win now.
Adrian Meronk — If you followed the Polish Giraffe based solely on his American starts, nothing would really stand out. No finish better than T14 (Honda) with no real whiff of contention. Go across the pond and it’s a different story. He won in Rome at the Ryder Cup venue at the Italian Open a month ago, making it his third win in 12 months on the DP World Tour. Plus, he almost closed in Holland two weeks ago and settled for a T5. He leads the Euro Tour in SG:OTT and sits third in GIR, good for 15th in SG:APP. There’s a reason he’s up to No. 45 in the world rankings.
Ben Martin — Outside of one horrible round at the Wells Fargo, Martin is quietly putting together one of most consistent iron years on TOUR. He already has three Top 10s in his past 8 starts, and now he gets a course where his lack of distance shouldn’t be an issue.
Here’s how the bombs rate out overall in the primary stats over the past 24 rounds (Prayers ATG doesn’t make that much if an impact this week. Since I’m going with my lean that the winning score is going to be sub -20, too much chipping means not enough birdies. Note: I’m wrong a lot.)
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Now here’s how they look with the Keys Stats I came up with.
Course
Course: Oakdale CC
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,264
Greens: Bentgrass with poa blend
Par 3’s (3): Average distance – 191 yards
If you’re going front-to-back, all of these holes come in a six-hole stretch that figures to encourage scoring (also includes a par 5 and the second shortest par 4).
Par 4’s (12): Average distance – 421 yards
There are five par 4’s that measure under 400 yards and the par 4’s on the back-nine come in at 408 yards per hole.
Par 5’s (3): Average distance – 546 yards
The short par 5 is the finishing hole (496 yards). Not all Canadian courses are created equal, but for what it’s worth, the shortest par 5 was the easiest hole at this event (St. George’s) last season (52.6% birdie-or-better rate with a 5.2% eagle rate).
Past Winners
2022: Rory McIlroy-19 (St. George’s)
2019: Rory McIlroy -22 (Hamilton)
2018: Dustin Johnson -23 (Glen Abbey)
2017: Jhonattan Vegas -21 (Glen Abbey)
2016: Jhonattan Vegas -12 (Glen Abbey)
2015: Jason Day -17 (Glen Abbey)
2014: Tim Clark (Royal Montreal)
2022: Rory McIlory (-19, two clear of Tony Finau)
Scoring took off on Sunday (Justin Rose earned a T-4 courtesy of a 60) and McIlroy (62) was able to outrun Finau (64) to the finish line.
Three of the top-five on the final leaderboard were top-five on approach for the week (Sam Burns finished T-4 despite losing strokes off-the-tee).
2019: Rory McIlroy (-22, seven clear of Shane Lowry and Webb Simpson)
McIlroy got better with each round and carded the round of the day (second best of the tournament) on Sunday with a 61 (he was one-up on Lowry and even with Simpson entering the day).
The top-5 putters for the week were the top-5 on the final leaderboard.
2018: Dustin Johnson (-23, three clear of Benny An and Whee Kim)
Johnson shot 65-66 in each of the final three rounds, the final of which helped him break a three-way tie.
Only three of the top-11 finishers gained more than one stroke around-the-greens.
2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21, playoff win over Charley Hoffman)
Vegas turned in his best round of the week on Sunday (65) to erase a three-shot deficit to Hoffman.
Five of the top-six for the week on approach cashed top-10 paychecks for the week (shoutout to my guy Luke List: third best on approach, fifth worst with the flat stick).
2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12, one clear of Martin Laird, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm)
Vegas opened with a 73, but he closed the week with a 64, allowing him to erase a five-shot deficit entering Sunday to both Brandt Snedeker and Dustin Jonson,
Distance wasn’t critical, but the top-four in yardage off-the-tee all cashed top-15 paychecks (including Johnson and Rahm).
Canadian Open Weather
Weather looks solid for the first two days. It appears like a bit of a spike in wind Friday morning but that can always smooth out between now and 30 hours from now.
WIND TOWER: Glenfield-Jane Heights
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CAN OPEN DRAFTKINGS
Ownership at the expensive end looks like it will be a bit flat. Rory will come under what we all expected early in the week as people are seemingly fading him with all the PGA/LIV stuff and him being the face of everything. Overall, expect Hatton, Rose and Fleetwood to come out as the most owned from the 9K+ range.
WATCH: CAN OPEN DRAFTKINGS PICKS & STRATEGY
Since people are jamming so many 9k+ players in, 8K appears not to have too much chalk. Meronk, Nick Taylor, Michael Kim, and Svensson have garnered the most interest but nothing crazy. The Hojgaard/Aberg/Bramlett (NOTE: Bramlett WD) tier is going pretty overlooked.
Below 8K, there are clear options being matched up with the 9K guys. Eric Cole and Lee Hodges from 7.5-8K, then Ben Martin, Mark Hubbard, Carson Young, and Dylan Wu from sub 7.5. After them, Lashley, Norrman, Lipsky, Chez, Bhatia, and Todd will be somewhat popular.
— PM