Byron Nelson, UFC, PGA Championship
Get your research in...
For everything I’ve read, it appears like TPC Craig Ranch may break out into a pure birdiefest unless some untimely weather pops up. I’ve update my model to include Birdies or Better now, and I added driving distance at a low level. It doesn’t seem like distance is going to be necessary to scoring, but with (on paper) four reachable Par 5s and two short Par 4s, it should make things much easier in the birdie (or better!) Generation department.
Here’s the model I’ve made. Who knows if it’s good or not. Based my recent results, “NOT” is about a -300 favorite at this point. If you want to mess around and make your own, get a Fantasy National Member. This link will get you 20% off all memberships. If you’re on the fence about signing up, get a weekly membership on Wednesday, and since it goes WED-WED, you’ll get Byron Nelson and PGA Championship on the site. TWO FOR ONE!!!!!
Here’s the rolling report results from my key stats. I sorted them by past 24 rounds, but you can see how they’ve moved up or down at the different round ranges.
There’s a UFC PPV this week btw.
Paul & Cody will have a fight-by-fight breakdown Wednesday evening.
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But in the meantime, if you want to get into the DraftKings game to take advantage of some of those juicy prize pools, I have a UFC DraftKings Strategy show dropping on Wednesday. But since you people were good enough to sub to this newsletter, the video is available for you NOW
The Dog or Pass Pod is bringing you a Monkey Knife Fight promo this week too. If you create an account through this link (https://bit.ly/UFC257MKFFree) and use code"DOP" in the promo sections, you’ll get up to $100 matched on that deposit.
The guys will be giving you their fav MKF plays on the show. May as well tail them. That’s what I do.
And if UFC isn’t your bag (baby), give golf a go. There are a bunch of different formats to make picks from, but it’s all H2H matchups. If you have a good feel for the Byron Nelson, give it a good. It’s especially good for those in states where betting isn’t legalized, as these are essentaklky prop H2H bets.
The “DOP” for the deposit match works for all sports too! So DO IT (https://bit.ly/UFC257MKFFree).
Dustin Johnson withdrew shortly after we posted the betting breakdown show. And I had already bet DJ. Fun! There are murmurings about DJ’s knee bothering him to the point where the status at the PGA Championship is now up in the air. I have a better chance of buying into a MLM scam than that. If reports drastically chance over the weekend into next week, I’ll change my tune. If not, I’ll assume he’s fine. Unless he hurt himself doing this…
Since he’s WD, it’s created a giant cluster among the $9K+ players on DraftKings. I spoke about the entire field, and whether Stars and Scrubs or balanced is the move this week with Geoff Ulrich.
It’s still really early, and these ownerships can certainly flip as people are actually making lineups, but it appears like Hideki and Sergio are the only two getting shunned aside. I will take that Rahm ownership however.
OHHHHHH, before I forget, Me, Cust and Fienberg are LIVEEEEEE Wednesday night at 830pm ET on YouTube with the NFL Schedule release show. Let this teaser trailer get you FIRED UP!!!!!!
This show is always a lot of fun.
Fienberg and I broke down the betting odds, and, even with DJ’s WD, not too much changed. I assumed Will Z would have dropped from 28/1. But he’s still sitting there on my book. Scheffler is the one who is getting hammered, it seems. He’s down to 18/1 now.
Since I allocated my funds towards DJ, I’m now left with a huge void, and I don’t love this event enough to really pound someone else at the top. I almost pulled the trigger on Rahm at +800, but is just too short for my liking. Instead, I’ll stick with Will Z at 28, I follow Geoff with Pieters at 75 (+ a top 5), then donked off a bunch of Al Hamilton’s on Ghim, Clark, Kizzire, Lewis and JB Holmes all at bomb odds along with their Top 5s. Couldn’t help myself.
Since I watch the EURO PICKS show, as you should too…
I decided to tail them, then in the lottery spirit I played some $0.50 each way doubles with them too.
I individually bet all those EURO guys expect Hojgaard too. Not huge stakes, but I wanted to get in since I’m now ion a weird time zone and am up early enough to kill my mornings with A LOT of EURO viewing.
If you missed the CUSTYS last week. What the fuck? You hate laughing your ass off?
WATCH IT NOW.
Or just listen, I suppose.
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How can you pass on hearing about winners like this?
Finally, I did an INSTANT REACTION to the PGA Championship DraftKings Pricing drop. It’s here…
I tried doing a version of the “Play the Best Plays” lineup a week ago. Mainly to see what the “Best Plays” lineup looks like a week from now, but here’s what I came up with.
— PM
PS: Here’s the WIND TOWER LINK for Byron Nelson https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/mckinney_tx