Byron Nelson + LIV SIngapore Picks, Preview, Notes
+ Draft Recap Show & Cust Corner
Byron Nelson
Me and Geoff preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson and LIV Golf Singapore Picks and bets with a recap of the Zurich and LIV. Plus, I’m pretty sure I caught him rolling a joint mid-show and he passed it off as cleaning glasses.
WATCH: CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks, Bets | 2024 LIV Golf Singapore Picks | Zurich, LIV Adelaide Recap
Field
156 Players
Top 65 & Ties Make the Cut
First Tee: Thursday, May 2
Defending Champion: Jason Day
Key Stats
SG: Approach
Proximity 175+ Yards
Par 4s Gained 450-500 Yards
SG: Off The Tee
Eagles Gained
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Course
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Par: 71
Yardage 7,414
Greens: Bentgrass
Number of Sand Bunkers: 83
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 13
DRAFTKINGS SCORING STREAK
For showdown, you’re starting on the front. In part, because No. 1 is the second toughest on the course, so that’s going to kill any hope of a streak going back-to-front. The other part of the equation is that Holes 8-12 all play on the easier side, highlighted by a pair of Par 5s (holes 9 and 12) that have a birdie-or-better rate north of 49%. Holes 8, 10 and 12 aren’t gimmes, but all of them give you a shot and that’s more than you get if elect to go back-to-front.
Par 3s (4): Average distance (204 yards)
Three of the eight holes on this course that play over par are Par 3s (all over 215 yards) and all four rank above average in terms of scoring difficulty relative to this course.
Six of the top-seven finishers a year ago gained strokes on the field in the Par 3s.
Par 4s (11): Average distance (442 yards)
The top three holes in terms of bogey rate were all Par 4s (holes 1, 13 and 16), but the two shortest Par 4s (holes 6 and 14) carry a birdie-or-better rate of 40%+.
Speaking of #16 … the bogey rate was more than 3x the birdie rate: you have 17 other holes to try to make up ground, take your medicine here.
Par 5s (3): Average distance (558 yards)
The easiest three holes on the course all carried a birdie rate that was higher than the par rate (three had a sub-5% bogey rate).
Past Winners
2023; Jason Day -23
2022: KH Lee -26
2021: KH Lee-25
2019: Taylor Montgomrey (Korn Ferry Q School)
2022: K.H. Lee (-26, one clear of Jordan Spieth)
Lee was T2 after Thursday after firing a 64 and then was one better as he came from behind on Sunday
#TeamNoPutt? There were seven golfers that gained 5+ strokes with the flat stick … only one finished better than 12th and their average finish was 22nd.
2021: K.H. Lee (-25, three clear of Sam Burns)
Lee shot 67 or better in all four rounds, allowing him to withstand some haymakers like a Friday 62 from Sam Burns and a 63 from Patton Kizzire on Sunday.
Only three of the top eight finishers gained fairways on the field
The KH Lee Profile … Lee has won this thing in consecutive seasons, so why not take a look at exactly what he has done at a high level during those two seasons. Taking into account all rounds in 2021 and 2022, here are a few of the areas Lee gained strokes on the field in the majority of his rounds (not just at Byron Nelson, but overall):
Ball Striking (61%)
3-putt avoidance (59.8%)
Par 4 scoring, 450-500 yards (57.3%)
Fairways gained (56.9%)
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The PME Classic for Byron Nelson opens when tee times are released Tuesday, FYI.
Notes
I’ve never seen an SG distribution so flat at any course on TOUR.
We’ve now seen TPC Craig Ranch for three years on TOUR and a verdict has been reached: It’s easy. Not the easiest, but almost. Just birdies and eagles everywhere. In its debut as a TOUR course in 2021, TPC Craig Ranch gave up the most birdies of any course that year along with the fourth-most eagles. It was also the track with the four highest average scrambling rate as well; even if you miss greens par will be saved 66% of the time. It all makes sense statistically. Players hit more fairways here than average, hit more GIRs, drive the ball farther, and three-putt less.
Rowlett Creek runs throughout the course and will test the field to either lay up or try and clear the hazards on about half the holes, but since it doesn’t provide too much difficulty from the fairway “lay up” should be stricken from the record for a week.
With the way the holes are laid out, expect a larger-than-normal amount of approach shots from 175 yards and beyond. All three par 5s measure between 547 and 569 yards, and three of the par 3s are at least 216 yards. There are seven holes immediately where you’ll encounter approaches in that range. In two years, over 53% of approach shots have come from 175+ yards.
Beyond that, there are six Par 4s over 450 yards, with another two under 360 yards. No. 14 is drivable by most of the field but with some risk, which we want from short par 4s. It’s a slight right-to-left drive guarded by bunkers to the right and a massive water hazard to the left. Expect a lot of the field to bail out into the right greenside bunkers and be forced to get it up and down for birdie. The field is making eagle at only a 1.5% clip while the birdie rate is a staggering 43%.
No. 6 plays 361 yards, but with no hazard area, some of the bigger hitters have given it a go from the box but it’s just a tad too long to get to. It’s 341 yards to the front of the green with bunkers situated on each side of the putting surface. Like No. 14, it’s slightly right-to-left from the tee box and a favorable bounce could sneak a drive between the front and right side bunker and squirt onto the putting surface.
Per Fantasy National, the best players in the field on Par 4s under 350 yards over the past 50 rounds are Chad Ramey, Matt Kuchar, Si WOOOO Kim, Tom Kim, SH Kim, Ben Griffin, Jason Day, Alex Noren and Ben Martin.
There are six “Kims” in the field this week!
PICKS
No clue what I’m doing at the top, if anything, but there were some names at the back end who stood out. I’m currently trying to pick between some combo of Si Woo/Min Woo or Hoge/Mitchell. Not sure why they have to go together, but in my mind they do.
Schenk 55/1
Kevin YUUUUUU 80/1
Ryan Fox 85/1
TOSTI 110/1
Lanto 175 (8 Places)
Brehm 250 (8 Places)
NFL DRAFT RECAP + CUST CORNER
Mayo, Geoff Fienberg and Tim Anderson provide their 2024 NFL Draft Round 1 Recap. Plus, a Cust Corner on Tim’s Egg Rankings and Dead Man’s Hats. The egg rankings were bad; dead man’s hats are insane.
WATCH: NFL Draft Round 1 Recap: Jets, Chargers, Penix | Cust Corner: Egg Rankings, Dead Man’s Hats
The more I look at this list the worse it gets. Since the show was released I’ve heard from from people who actually order their eggs “over medium” which simply sounds low. Get your life together, wackos.
LIV Singapore
Course: Sentosa Golf Club (Serapong Course)
Par: 71
Yardage 7,406
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda
Sentosa Golf Club has been hosting the Singapore Open since 2005. Before it was a LIV course it was an Asian Tour/DP World Tour Venue.
Beyond a year ago, not a lot of players have much experience at this course, except Sergio. Sergio lost in a playoff to Gooch last year, but won here in 2018 along with Top 15 finishes in 2017 and 2019 as well.
Poulter won in 2009. Louis had a runner up in 2012. Casey was runner up in 2019.
Here’s last year’s leaderboard
BETS
Cam Smith 12/1
2024 Volvo China Open
Tom and Sky were on verge of a giant week in Japan over the weekend but none of the long shots could hold it together coming home Sunday. The DP World Tour continues its Asian swing in China this week and the guys are back with a breakdown.
WATCH: Volvo China Open Picks, Bets
— PM