LIVE SHOW!!!!!!
THURSDAY NIGHT JUST AFTER 8PM ET, it’s the NFL Schedule release show LIVEEEEEEE with Geoff and Cust. Avid viewers and listeners will tell you this is on the best shows every year. Geoff and Cust are under strict instructions to not look at the schedule before we start the show so it can be revealed to them in real time along with all of you. Set a reminder so you can interact LIVE with us.
WATCH LIVE: NFL Schedule release on MMN
BYRON NELSON HOT LINKS
Final Bets, Weather + DraftKings Picks
Fantasy Picks, Bets, One & Done
Research, Picks, Course, Custom Model
BYRON LISTENERS LEAGUE LINK
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP LISTENERS LEAGUE LINK
BYRON NELSON BETS
WATCH: FINAL BETS & ONE AND DONE PICKS
Adam Scott — Scott gained with his irons for the first time since January at the Wells Fargo, so here’s to hoping he can roll over that form from Quail Hollow. The rest of his game is in fantastic shape, but he’ll need to keep those approaches dialled in order to breach the -20 require to win at Craig Ranch.
Hideki Matsuyama — Before his extended layoff, Matsuyama’s picked up T16 finishes in his pas three starts, gaining over +6 strokes between OTT and APP in each. Hopefully there’s no rust (or lingering injury) and he can pick up at TPC Craig Ranch where he left off a year ago, leading the field in approach.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout — A lot of the time we talk about how if a player can just putt to field average, they have a chance to win. Bez is in the unique situation where he needs that with driving. He’s bad off the tee. However, is career putting performance on Bentgrass is immaculate, and his recent approach play has him up near the top of the field. In his current run of three straight Top 30 finishes, he’s averaging +4.3 SG: APP per start.
Sam Stevens, Nasty Nate & The Other C. Young — It’s widely known Nasty Nate has been a fav of mine over the years, and if I’m going to cheery pick from the bottom of the field, I alway prefer short term form to try and catch lightning in a bottle rather than maybe better quality players with current poor form. And here’s what my numbers showed from the past 12 rounds….
Somehow, it got even better for Young shrinking it down to past 8 rounds…
REMINDER: If you've been on the fence about getting a Fantasy National membership, TODAY (Wednesday) is the best day to do it. You get a 2-for-1 by getting to use the tools for Byron Nelson and all the LIVE data and lineup builders for showdown and betting over the weekend. Then next week up until lock for the PGA Championship.
With the 20% OFF it’s $8 for the weekly membership. I suggest doing it!
GET 20% OFF ALL RESEARCH TOOLS, LINEUP GENERATOR, OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS AND MORE AT FANTASY NATIONAL
2023 AT&T Byron Nelson: Key Stats
SG: Approach
Proximity 175+ Yards
Par 4s Gained 450-500 Yards
SG: Off The Tee
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
AT&T Byron Nelson: Course
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Par: 71
Yardage 7,468
Greens: Bentgrass
Par 3s (4): Average distance (204 yards)
Three of the six holes on this course that play over par are Par 3s (all over 215 yards) and all four rank above average in terms of scoring difficulty relative to this course.
Six of the top-seven finishers a year ago gained strokes on the field in the Par 3s.
Par 4s (11): Average distance (449 yards)
The top three holes in terms of bogey rate were all Par 4s (holes 1, 13 and 16), but the two shortest Par 4s (holes 6 and 14) carry a birdie-or-better rate of 40%+.
Speaking of #16 … the bogey rate was more than 3x the birdie rate: you have 17 other holes to try to make up ground, take your medicine here.
Par 5s (3): Average distance (558 yards)
The easiest three holes on the course all carried a birdie rate that was higher than the par rate (three had a sub-5% bogey rate).
Past Winners
2022: KH Lee -26
2021: KH Lee-25
2022: K.H. Lee (-26, one clear of Jordan Spieth)
Lee was T2 after Thursday after firing a 64 and then was one better as he came from behind on Sunday
#TeamNoPutt? There were seven golfers that gained 5+ strokes with the flat stick … only one finished better than 12th and their average finish was 22nd.
2021: K.H. Lee (-25, three clear of Sam Burns)
Lee shot 67 or better in all four rounds, allowing him to withstand some haymakers like a Friday 62 from Sam Burns and a 63 from Patton Kizzire on Sunday.
Only three of the top eight finishers gained fairways on the field.
The KH Lee Profile … Lee has won this thing in consecutive seasons, so why not take a look at exactly what he has done at a high level during those two seasons. Taking into account all rounds in 2021 and 2022, here are a few of the areas Lee gained strokes on the field in the majority of his rounds (not just at Byron Nelson, but overall):
Ball Striking (61%)
3-putt avoidance (59.8%)
Par 4 scoring, 450-500 yards (57.3%)
Fairways gained (56.9%)
THE TIDBITS
Like every week, Tambo has compiled the best of free content from around the internets.
https://twitter.com/ToeTagginTambo/status/1656282977062596609
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TAMBO’S TIDBITS ⛳️🧵<br><br>Every week I read/watch a LOT of the free PGA content around the industry.<br><br>I compile all of the information that stands out to me and can help you with your Bets/DFS play.<br><br>Here’s my 10+ favorite tidbits for the <a href="
10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
As a bonus, since Andy Lack was a guest on the Fantasy Golf Degenerates Pod this week, here’s the results of the hard work he did mapping out proximity ranges at Oak Hill next week.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I mapped out every hole on Oak Hill based on course conditions, carry distance, expected strategy & my experience playing a few months ago to find the most common expected approach shot distributions for the PGA Championship. Hope this helps :) <a href="
10, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
SITCOM BRACKET
ROUND 2 of the Sitcom Bracket is oprn for voting. Me and Garion broke down the new match ups and discussed the biggests snubs. Also, we talked Sucession, because that’s what people do on the internet these days…
WATCH: RD2 SITCOM BRACKET, SNUBS + SUCESSION
You can VOTE HERE and if you RT that tweet, you’re in a draw for $100 automatically. Pretty light lift. It’s about 3s of work.
https://twitter.com/ThePME/status/1655734500448432129
BYRON NELSON DRAFTKINGS & WEATHER
Tambo and I talked through the two main builds this week and which have the most merit. Despite rosters that look very fine starting with three 9K guys, the Scottie stars and scrubs almost always projected out better.
WATCH: BN DRAFTKINGS PICKS + OWNERSHIP
Here are the main $7,500 and below players we discussed the most on the show, and I’ve added the Fantasy National rolling report for segments of time of the Custom Model I built on Sunday’s show. You can also see which stats are in it eariler in the newsletter
DRAFTKINGS HISTORY
2022: Familiar with the RB dead zone? We had the golfer dead zone at this event a year ago. Of the top 11 on the final DraftKings leaderboard, six cost no more than $7,600 and five cost at least $9,700.
2021: Stars and scrubs. Sam Burns, Daniel Berger and Jordan Spieth all came through with price tags north of $9,000 while KH Lee (winner at $6,900) was one of six $6K golfers to reach 100 DKFP.
DRAFTKINGS SCORING STREAK
For showdown, you’re starting on the front. In part, because No. 1 is the second toughest on the course, so that’s going to kill any hope of a streak going back-to-front. The other part of the equation is that Holes 8-12 all play on the easier side, highlighted by a pair of Par 5s (holes 9 and 12) that have a birdie-or-better rate north of 49%. Holes 8, 10 and 12 aren’t gimmes, but all of them give you a shot and that’s more than you get if elect to go back-to-front.
WEATHER
If you want to wave stack, I think it has a lot of merit this week (and almost always in Texas). Problem is: there doesn’t seem to be a discernible “good side”. I suppose (as of now) the players on the course first Thursday morning may get the best of it. But I’d ratehr just split it up. Hopefully that rain doesn’t push the ending of this event into Sunday. That would be a clusterfuck with a Major next week.
— PM