British Open Picks, Preview, Course, Trends
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BETS UPDATE
Woke up Monday morning to see a +1000 hanging on BD/BV for Scheffler and instaclicked it. That dramatically shifts what I wanted to do on the betting card this week. I like Rickie a lot, I wanted to bet him, but those deflated odds, paired with me going with Iron Schef took the 20s off the board for me. So, after talking it through with Geoff and Cust I’ve build my initial outright card, Top 40s and the like will come later on some bombs but I’m basically set for outright now. More color on the picks later in the week. OR, watch the show for that…
WATCH : Picks, Bets, One and Done + CURSED
2023 Open Championship Field
156 Players | Top 70 & Ties Make The Cut
First Tee: Thursday, July 20
Defending Champion: Cameron Smith
Although the detente between PGA/LIV/DPWT may issue in a Monroequse era of good feelings moving forward, this will be the final time we’ll get to see ALL of the world’s best in one place at one time in 2023. Now, insignificant team golf and a cash grab playoff system with a trophy that would have you going full Last Crusade if asked to pick it out from a pile is compelling stuff, but it really would be nice to have a few more of these during the year. It has made the Major championships more significant however. Which has been nice.
The field is set at 156 players for the 151st Open Championship, the low 70 and ties will continue through the week, and DraftKings has decided to shake up the pricing format this week. It’s the world’s oldest Open Championship so maybe it’s an homage to return to vintage DraftKings pricing structure? The top players have been given a slight boost in salary, but now the bottom end of the field is available below $6,000. This modest adjustment to the salary ranges provides the ability for more varied lineup builds depending on your risk tolerance.
It’s quite easy to make a fully balanced lineup, complete with six options you’ll likely pretty comfortable with from top to bottom. That involves avoiding the players with the highest probabilities of winning to give yourself a false sense of safety with the last player in a lineup. This is the Open Championship, a event with the potential to have weather completely wipe out an entire wave of players. Nothing is safe.
That doesn’t mean a balanced build is the wrong idea. It very well may work, but if you’re comfortable at the bottom of the pricing, you don’t necessarily have to play Scheffler and Rory in the same lineup to utilize the savings in the $5,000 and low $6,000 range. And there are some viable options down there who will be completely unknown most golf fans in North America. You’d be surprised how few people wake up at 5am to binge the Dutch Open. I got you covered with some risky options from the bottom:
Thriston Lawrence ($6,200) — Flamed out spectacularly on the closing holes to miss the cut in Scotland, but we know The Open has been kind to South Africans overs the years. Plus, Lawrence has been a prolific winner on the DPWT the past 12 months, claiming three victories since last year’s Open. There’s very little consistency with his play, as evidence by three missed cuts and a T62 prior to his win in Germany three weeks back. It’s a stretch to think this way, but his lead form isn’t entirely dissimilar to fellow South African Louis Oosthuizen before his win at the 2010 Open.
Joost Luiten ($6,200) — Owner off golf’s best Jheri Curl, well, only Jheri Curl, the Dutchman is riding some underrated form entering Hoylake. Look at this thing…
He picked up consecutive Top 10 the last month at the British Masters and BMW International, Hon’t missed a cut since the first week of February, and, despite a putrid back nine to close in Scotland, ended the week Top 10 in ball striking even with the field upgrade at The Renaissance Club. He’s deadly accurate off the tee, irons are solid, but his short can be an absolute travesty. If he blows up, it’s going to be putting related.
Daniel Hillier ($6,100) — The hottest man on the DP World Tour at the moment. The 24-year-old Kiwi continued his scorching iron play, gaining almost seven strokes on approach at the Scottish Open. Almost as many as he lost on and around the greens. The lack of short game is discouraging, however, the form is too good to ignore. He followed up a T5 in Holland, with a missed cut at the Porsche, before a bronze medal in Germany at the BMW International then a win in England at the British Masters.
Ewan Ferguson ($6,100) — The results have been spotty for the Scot, yet there are plenty of high-end finishes on his card fro 2023. Since Mid-March, Ferguson’s made’s nine starts on the DP World Tour, he’s missed the cut in three of them while finishing Top 4 three times. He acquitted himself nicely against the PGA Tour invasion in Scotland this week too with a Top 20 finish.
Matthew Southgate ($5,800) — Despite not having played in The Open since 2018, the links specialist has two Top 12 finishes in four Open appearances. His game can be incredibly spotty, but with three Top 10 finishes in his past sevens starts, he’s flashed enough form to roll the dice on at this discount.
THE SHOWS
Already out to a HOT START with three full length shows released already. (And another three coming Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday). But first, I suggest you join the PME RAKE FREE Listeners League. It’s already 40% full, and spots go quickly once we’re in the actual week of the event.
BRITISH OPEN RAKE FREE DraftKings Listeners League: https://bit.ly/23OPENPMEDKLL
Steve Bamford and I did our initial run through of the course before I dove into some of the recent form numbers.
WATCH: British Open Picks, Research, Course Preview
Ben Coley joined me to go player-by-player and discuss each player chance to become the Champion Golfer of The Year
WATCH: Individual Player Profiles — Play or Fade
Me, Kenny Kim, and Joe Idone (stepping up admirably for an on-vacation Ben Rasa) discussed the new DraftKings pricing and the different types of builds we like in the Draftkings Milly Maker.
WATCH: DraftKingsMillionaire Maker Picks — Lineup Builds, Pricing
As always, the easiest way to make your lineups and prep your bets is to research with Fantasy National. So, join.
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2023 Open Championship Course & Winners
Course: Royal Liverpool
Yardage: 7,383
Par: 71
Greens: Bentgrass + Poa Annua + Fescue
Par 3's (4) - Average distance: 188 yards
The average length is dragged down by the 136-yard 17th hole that could lead to some fireworks if this comes down to the stretch. The two 3's on the front measure over 200 yards and provide a nice challenge over a four hole stretch after that nine opens with five holes that aren't intimidating from a distance perspective.
Par 4's (11) - Average distance: 444 yards
The majority of the 4's play over 425 yards and under 460, but there are extremes on either tail with the longest Par 4 coming in 140 yards longer than the shortest. The back-9 is 261 yards longer than the front nine and the 4's play a big role in that with four of the five measuring longer than the course average for a Par 4.
Par 5's (3) - Average distance: 583 yards
Two 5's that measure north of 600 yards highlight what should be a fun race to the finish (Holes 15 and 18). The remaining Par 5 should be gettable for everyone in the field (520 yards) and comes right after a short Par 4 (367 yards), giving players a nice opportunity to get rolling early in their weekend rounds.
PAST WINNERS
2022: Cam Smith -20
2021: Collin Morikawa -15
2019: Shane Lowry -15
2018: Francesco Molinari -8
2017: Jordan Spieth -12
2022: Cam Smith: Finished T-10 the week prior at The Renaissance Club and have a trio of top-15 finishes in his five events leading into The Open. Smith was To 15 at two of the three preceding majors, but did miss the cut at the US Open.
2021: Collin Morikawa: Famously flamed out at the Scottish Open the week previous, which was his first start since a T-4 finish at the US Open.His "form" is a bit loose, but he had rattled off five straight Top 15's entering play and was Top 20 at all three of the preceding majors.
2019: Shane Lowry: Like Morikawa, Lowry made a cameo on the European Tour (two weeks previous at the Irish Open; T34) prior to his win at The Open. He was T-28 at the US Open and was Top 10 in each of his three events prior to that showing. After missing the cut at The Masters, he went T8 at the PGA before the aforementioned 28 at the US Open (75 on Thursday, 70 or better in the final three rounds to leave a good taste in his mouth).
2018: Francesco Molinari: Finished T2 the week prior at TPC Deere Run (thanks to a final round 64) and that came on the heels of winning Quicken Loans in his event prior to the JDC and a 1st/2nd run through Wentworth and the Italian Open the month previous. He was Top 25 in both of his major events before The Open victory (T20 at The Masters and T25 at the US Open).
2017: Jordan Spieth: Spieth had nearly a month to prep for this event following his win (in a playoff over Daniel Berger) at the Travelers. In the two majors prior to The Open this season (the PGA was played in August then), Spieth finished T-11 at the Masters and T-35 at the US Open.
Youth has been served here for the most part, as three of the past five winners have still yet to celebrate their 30th birthday. And in the two exceptions, we Xander in the mix in 2018 and Bobby Mac (best Sunday of any Top 10 finisher) right up there the following year.
2014 (at Royal Liverpool): Rory McIlroy: McIlroy decided to double-dip on the Euro Tour between Majors. He missed the in Ireland, before churning out a T14 in Scotland the week prior to the Open at Royal Liverpool. This was his 11th PGA sanctioned (or co-sanctioned) tournament of the season and he was Top 25 at each of the ten prior, including a 8 at Augusta and a 23 at Pinehurst). And guess what? The form didn't end at Liverpool as peak-Rory went on to win his next two events (WGC Bridgestone and the PGA Championship). In addition to cameos in Ireland and Scotland in the weeks before The Open, Rory also won the BMW PGA Championship any Wentworth in May.
>> Some players we haven't seen since the Travelers (with their finish in Hartford): Jon Rahm (MC, 34th at the 2022 Open), Jason Day (T45, MC at the 2021 Open) and Si Woo Kim (MC, 15th at the 2022 Open)
QUICK EATS
Seriously, it’s the easiest way to meal prep on earth. Highly recomend.
Course Notes
Hosting its third Open this millennium, Royal Liverpool has been the course most willing to change in the Open Rota. Since the last Open in 2014, there have been adjustments made throughout the course, with additional bunkering, harsher run-off areas, pushed tees boxes, and even a new hole.
The first difference you’ll find is on the scorecard. It is now playing as a Par 71. The Par 3, 17th hole has been rotated 180-degrees (empirically 7.35 Nick Lacheys) to create an infinity effect with the back of the green now showing the water. It’s only a short Par 3, but big numbers exist left, right, and long.
A new tee on No. 15 has extended the Par 5 by 50 yards; it now plays as 620 yards. Despite its length it appears better to go for the green in two rather than layup because of thin fairway section before the putting surface which could bring bigger numbers into play.
No. 4 is a drivable Par 4 but comes with risk. Out of bounds is about 20 yards left of the green which is entirely in play with wayward drives or if the wind really starts to blow. There are six OB areas littered across the grounds, which will have a few player ejecting over the course of the week if they try and get too aggressive. A lot of it will depend on conditions. In 2006, when Tiger decided to leave driver in the back the entire week, the conditions were firm and fast enough to allow for that style of play. During Rory’s in 2014, conditions were damp and drivers were able to hold the fairway pretty easily. Being that aggressive made sense.
While driving it long and straight is a guaranteed way to win at almost any course, accuracy still meant more in 2014 to the top of the leaderboard than distance. This year’s forecast appears to fall somewhere in the middle of the two. There’s been intermittent rain in the region over the past couple weeks, it doesn’t appear like it’s going to be soggy under the weekend.
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WIND TOWER: HOYLAKE
With all that OB and random dangers lurking off the fairways, like gorse bushes, both styles of aggression and passive play may both be on the table on a lot of the Par 4s since most aren’t too long. Just depends on how comfortable players are from certain distances. But you better believe they want to be in the fairway.
BETS
I actually have nothing in yet. I’m waiting for the GREAT RESET of odds Monday morning. Or maybe it will be later this evening because the Scottish Open finished so earlier. Either way, I’ll have a few in the chamber on the Bets and One and Done show Wirth Geoff and Cust which should be out before lunchtime Monday. In full discloser, I’m leaning dumping all my money on Scottie and a few bombs and calling it a week for outright wagers.
— PM