British Open Final Thoughts, UFC, NFL
+ DK Ownership, Tools, and Props
One Major to go, let’s GET LUCKY!!!!
Betting Card
When into more detail on the WHY here.
Additions since Monday: I ended up firing on Brooks. The combination of his recent form, his major results, and Cust saying that he can’t win was enough for me. Going with Brooks meant skipping the 30-60 range this week, but it realistically wildly increases my actual win expectancy (now that I say that, watch Reed or Finau win).
Had my final play narrowed down to Jason Day, Harris English, and Ian Poulter, and sided with Day. Why? Because he had longer odds, and I’m a fish like that. I also added Aaron Rai across the board. The Fantasy National simulator loves him for… reasons. That’s good enough for me!
Get 20% OFF Fantasy National here. No better time than the present
Stat Engine
Custom Model
Lineup Generator
Simulator
Course Stats
Course Conditions
Own Projections
And if you’re interested in NFL Stats and Tools, RuntheSims.com if exactly what you need. It’s free until the end of July, so go take the tools for a test drive. The easiest way to do your research.
Plus, there’s an optimizer, custom game sims, and a fuck ton more. Since it’s free, CHECK IT, ok?
back to betting. Mac Hughes also got added, because if the path to good results this week is magic beans, long putts, and “how on earth did you get up and down from THAT?” then I gotta get some Mac Hughes in my life. Also added Hughes as Top Canadian.
Weather
As of right now, the whole week is looking very consistent - wind around 15 MPH all week, again, as of now. It’s an Open, so these things change, but there is no clear difference between splits we can see so far. Does that mean there won’t be a split advantage? No, but it just means there isn’t an obvious one. I’m using the Sandwich Bay Wind Tower for the week. Check back before lock if you want to see if anything opens up.
Sneaky Prop Value
Not everyone has access to props, etc, but Prize Picks may be the answer for you. Previously, they had this terrible rule where you HAD to select at least one over and under. As of today, THAT’S GONE, and they have legit promo on the go, plus the MMN promo, so you can really cash in.
They have Fantasy Props, along with birdie props, but they now have FULL TOURNAMENT finishing position over under, and here’s just a sample of the deep cast of players available…
But here’s the rub, there’s a promotion for this week where if any of your selected golfers place Top 3 or better tournament your winning payout will be doubled. This is for finishing position only and only for this week. So it seems like perfect time to take advantage of the potential free money here. If you use our link, and code “MMN”, you’ll get a deposit match up to $100, and they have a thing called a FLEX PLAY where you win of you get five, four or three picks correct.
And then the payout doubles if someone comes Top 3. This is the most value you’ll find at The Open.
Play it for whatever you like, but if you deposit $50, you’ll get matched $50, then you can put $100 on this!
Or just take whoever you want. It seems like a soft market so you should check it out to see if something appears off to you, then you can attack it.
Odds And Ends
156 Players in the field, with 7 amateurs included.
Cut is T70 and ties, no secondary cut regardless of how many make the weekend.
Lock is 1:30AM Eastern on Thursday morning for DraftKings.
ALLLLLL The Content
All the context for the week is out, and we’ll hopefully be able to do Cut Sweats Live on Friday, but no promises, I have some personal matters I don’t think I can miss. Real life shit happens from time to time. Share the shows around if you’re still catching up with them.
Picks And Bets with Geoff (+ a Cust Cameo)
Friday - Cut Sweats Live with Geoff and Cust (This is still a maybe)
UFC
Coming off a HOT CARD at UFC 264, Paul and Cody have some juicy props for the scrub card, UFC Vegas 31!
Notable Withdrawals
A bunch of these guys are still in the player pool on DraftKings, so don’t play them, unless you’re playing against me.
Hideki Matsuyama (COVID)
Bubba Watson (COVID precautions)
Matt Wolff (N/A)
Zach Johnson (COVID)
Ryan Moore (Back)
Sungjae Im (Olympics)
Si WOOOOOO (Olympics)
Fun with Searches
Specific FantasyNational Filter Build: Moderate wind with long rough. Last 24 rounds (and they had to have played 24 such rounds … too small a sample otherwise). The top-10 if you take the cumulative ranks in Good Drives, SG:App and SG:ARG in those settings………
This is what we call the “Fade Mayo” build. Spieth ranks outside the top 100 in both Good Drives and SG:App using this format (though he is 6th ARG)
Big names that get knocked when doing this
Hatton: 125th SG:ARG
McIlroy: 124th SG:ARG
DeChambeau: 91st SG:ARG
Oosthuizen: 84th Good Drives
Finau: 116th in Good Drives
Simpson: 118th SG:APP
Spieth (previously mentioned)
Fleetwood: 93rd SG:APP
DraftKings vs DraftKings Sportsbook
If you wanted to look and see who is under priced on DraftKings, one way to do that is their rank on the betting board versus their rank on DraftKings. Using the odds at DK Sportsbook, here’s the list. (Green means DK Sportsbook thinks they’re more likely to win than their DK rank, Red means less likely to win.)
Unsurprisingly, Berger is the leader in this metric, but other values are Lee Westwood and Harris English, both of which make sense. Westwood has the narratives and the right nationality for the books to back him this week, and English is very sneakily the 12th best player in the Official World Golf Rankings. Other values are Grace (who everyone loves this week), Matt Fitzpatrick (an Englishman who is often tipped at courses that line up well for Spieth), and defending champion Shane Lowry.
The biggest negative value is Will Zalatoris, who is 70/1 and 30th on the betting board but 8500 on DraftKings, all the way up as the 16th most expensive guy. Other “overpriced” DK plays are the usual suspects: Phil, Bryson, Day, Webb, all of whoms DK prices are elevated by their names. Unsurprisingly, most are fading these players, so they can create leverage.
DraftKings Ownership
It felt like Burns and Berger were going to allow a lot of stars and scrubs this week, as is the fact that Spieth is only 9700, and is the logical second man in with almost any build. Rahm and Burns seemed like the most logical start for people on DraftKings, but unless my perception is way off, Burns isn’t going to be as chalky at many thought all week. He MIGHT hit 10%, which is about half of expectations. That’s why I ended up using him in my mega build of 150 lineups. Skipped him in the main core thoough.
If you’re looking for leverage at the top, it’s DJ of the guys above 10K. Is the reason he’s a good leverage play that he is playing very middling golf? Well, sure, but the last time he was this low owned (and this disrespected in the outright market), he went out and outduelled Brendan Todd in Hartford last year. Also, expect Bryson to be low owned, but your guess is as good as mine as to whether that’s a spot worth exploiting low owned Bryson in or not. I went with Bryson over DJ as my leverage play in around 15% of lineups.
Best guesses of the chalk:
Spieth 29%
Brooks 22%
Rahm 21%
Xander 19%
Reed 19%
Cantlay 17%
English 16%
Louis 16%
Good luck this week everybody, hopefully we have a winner in all this.
— PM