British Open CHEATSHEET: Bets, Weather, DraftKings Notes, Make/Miss Cut Parlay

Mayo Media

Jul 16, 2025

WINNER

Henley +6500
Fox +8000 (With 5 Places)
Hideki +8500
Straka +10000

BOMBS

N. Taylor +14000 (With 8 Places)
Kirk +30000 (With 8 Places)
Glover +30000 (With 8 Places)
Reitan +35000 (With 8 Places)

FIRST ROUND LEADER

Henley +6600
Cam Smith +8000
T. Kim +10000
Kirk +15000
Glover +15000

H2H

Spieth over Gotterup (-110 Coolbet)

MISS CUT

CLARK/THEEGALA Parlay +262

CUDA

Homa +2800
Putnam +4500
Cone +10000 (With 5 Places)

CUDA FRL

Hodges +5000

BETS

Hideki Matsuyama — It’s hard for me to reckon with Hideki at this deep a price when I see some of the names in front of him. No, he can’t drive at the moment. But, for a second, let’s live in a world where he gets a fairway finder this week. No need to win a long drive contest. If he can, Deki is second in approach one rte past 12 rounds, remains on the five best players in the world from off the tee, and historically beats up on slow greens. As evidence buy his wins in Hawaii, including at Kapalua this year. The driving is a big ask based on the state of his game however, that’s more than baked into his odds.

Sepp Straka — Besides Scheffler, no player is averaging more SG:APP per round this season than Straka. Likely why he’s already won twice. He’s posted a T2 at an Open previously and has cleaned up at PGA National over the past four years (1st/T5/MC/T11). It’s somewhat worrisome his around the green play has been quite poor with the demand in which may be placed on it at Portrush, but he’ll need to simply hit GIRs at an elite level to mitigate that damage. Which, as we’ve seen in 2025, he’s more than capable of doing.

Ryan Fox — Two wins over the past few months, a victory at the Irish in his career, and a weather of success on links venues, Fox’s number is going to shrink as the week goes on as more and more people bet him. His best result at an Open was here in 2019 (T16) and is 20th in the field over the past two years in SG: PUTT on slow greens.

Russell Henley — Henley enters The Open with three consecutive Top 10s, all in Majors or signature events, picked up a win at a longer, wind infused course earlier this season at Bay Hill, and is basically Mr. PGA National with three Top 10s there the past four years and a victory back in 2014. His Open history hasn’t been good, but a spike to T5 a year ago shows now, later in career, he’s capable for storming the leaderboard overseas.

Nick Taylor — Consistency isn’t something normally associated with Nick Taylor. UNTIL NOW!!! Beyond finally not embarrassing himself at a Major for the first time at Oakmont, he’s posted six T25 finishes in his past seven starts. He’s accurate, the irons are firing, the chipping has been great, and, when in contention, has shown over and over the nuts to make the clutch putts. Basically exactly what you want from a triple digit long shot.

Lucas Glover — Enters on the heels of B2B Top 10 finishes and sits Top 25 in T2G of all players over the past two months. Plus, if you buy into meaningless trends, he pops once ever three years for a T20 or better at The Open… and he has missed the cut the past 2 seasons.

Chris Kirk — Pure gut play on Kirk, but he’s won at Kapalua and PGA National in his career, was sneakily a shot outside the Top 10 at the US Open, lost in a playoff, and has honestly had one bad round over the the past month: A disastrous 79 Saturday at the John Deere Classic. He’s good in the wind, and besides distance, is well above average everywhere else.

Kristoffer Reitan — Liked him last week, like him this week. It was a dice roll to see how’d he fare against top end competition in Scotland and he delivered with a T13. That’s not six Top1 5 finishes in his past eight starts worldwide, which features a win and two runners-up. He’s way better than these odds.

H2H —Spieth over Gotterup (-110 Coolbet)

Look, it was a nice win for Gotterup in Scotland, and Spieth is coming off injury, but Portrush isn’t a bomb, gouge, and run hot with a putter course. It requires touch, feel, and creativity. This isn’t peak Spieth but he still possesses all those qualities.

MAKE/MISS CUT

Played a bunch of variations on the show the show this week for a MAKE/MISS CUT parlay. You can do this Underdog btw. But here’s a YOLO one I made with Tambo on the Wednesday show.

TAIL THIS ENTRY (or fade) & Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a FREE PICK and deposit bonus up to $1000

DREAM GOLF GIVEAWAY

Coolbet is giving away a trip to go play at the Cabot Courses in October. These are the two of the world’s best courses, and I can tell you that first hand since I make the trek to go play them every year. All you need to do is OPT IN to the giveaway and go. It’s a bucket list trip. I live three hours away and it never disappoints.

Must be in Canada (outside Ontario) to get in the draw.

OPT- IN TO THE COOLBET CABOT GIVEAWAY

WEATHER

For a while it looked like the earliest players and the latest players on the course would get the best of Thursday. Now it’s looking pretty even across the board. While the later you play Friday, the easier the conditions.

Now, be warned, this seems to change ever few hours, so waiting as long as you can to figure out Thursday is the best move. I don’t think there’s any reason not to break the Tee Times into fours and make four sets of mini-stacks. We may not know when the weather advance will hit, but we know there usually is on at The Open. And since all players tee off from No. 1 and play the course in order (no split tees), a tradition AM/PM split isn’t a thing this week. Hence, why you’d break it down into fours. Or, just take the players you like, and pair them with other an hour behind and in front of them to try to catch a window.

WINDTOWER: Portrush (Tide)

DRAFTKINGS

If you’re not a Fantasy National, I’m thinking you’ll want to get in TONIGHT and lock in the current pricing at 20% off. YUGE NEWS coming soon and I guarantee everyone is going to be happy about a week from now with the tools.

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Beyond the weather waves, the way I see it, Rahm is going to be the most popular at the top, with Scottie/Rory just behind. Xander and Tommy looks ot be most owned in the 9s. Hatton and Viktor in the 8s. Henley, Fitz, Straka, Burns, Reed, Fox in the 7s. Hall and English in the 6s, followed by McNealy and Nick Taylor.

I don’t think he’s going to win, but Niemann at right around 5% may be the best play on the slate. I wasn’t on him until I saw basically no one is using him. Devoid of exceptions is the perfect time to deploy him.

WATCH: BRITISH OPEN DRAFTKINGS PICKS, OWNERSHIP, LINEUPS

Here’s my core of loser plays to stick with the top end players I’m jamming into lineups.

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