British Open Bets, DraftKings, Cheatsheets
REMINDER
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BRITISH OPEN BETS
Don’t know if I’m quite happy with the way everything came together on my betting card. Maybe that means I’ll actually walk away with money this week. Crazier things have happened. I’ve heard, at least. I suppose that’s what happens when you bite the bullet at the top, not too much room to maneuver elsewhere.
I also played some “Made Cut” parlays and Top 40 parlays, you know, because I like to bet. I’ve attached those after the write up on the players.
WATCH: BRITISH OPEN FINAL BETS, ONE & DONE
Scottie Scheffler — No one is safe in golf, this we know, but Scheffler is as close as you’ll get to finding his name on a Sunday leaderboard. He doesn’t have a finish worse than Top-12 in 2023, which seems impossible but what makes it even better is that he’s done all this without being able to make a 3-foot putt. Secondly, regardless of conditions, he has the game. Gale-force winds that are firm and fast but soggy as hell — not an issue.
Collin Morikawa — The combo of accuracy, hot irons, and flat greens give him his best chance to breakthrough in a stacked field in some time. The fact he initially drifted to 35 while the Cantlay/VIK/Tommy/Hatton/Xander tier was more than 10 points shorter in most spots was reason enough.
Dustin Johnson — Fifth at the US Open T2G, Dustin’s putter has been limiting him all over rte world recently, but it’s still led to three straight Top 10s between the Majors and LIV Tour. And a return to slower, British greens may prove to be the magic elixir. DJ’s constant hot starts at Open’s have never materialized into wins, but he has picked up six Top 10 finishes since 2009, including each of the past two.
Denny McCarthy — Being devoid of any Open experience is certainly a minus, however, when you can catch the world’s best putter in the midst of his career form, you need to pay attention. Denny’s reeled off four consecutive Top 20 finishes, two in elevated events and one Major, and getting him at this number at one of the only Majors where accuracy may be as important as distance it a worthy gamble.
Kurt Kitayama — Sure, he may some in last, but that’s a chance you need too be willing to take on a player with substantial upside in general, but more so on coastal courses. Between his PGA win, and EURO Tour victories, wind infused, coastal tracks have always bene the common denominator.
Daniel Hillier — The hottest man on the DP World Tour at the moment. The 24-year-old Kiwi continued his scorching iron play, gaining almost seven strokes on approach at the Scottish Open. Almost as many as he lost on and around the greens. The lack of short game is discouraging, however, the form is too good to ignore. He followed up a T5 in Holland, with a missed cut at the Porsche, before a bronze medal in Germany at the BMW International then a win in England at the British Masters.
Ben Griffin — The driver has been spotty since the beginning of May, but Griffin’s actually reeled off seven straight event gaining strokes on approach, including last week in his first foray into links golf in Scotland. His once hot putter has started to return to form after a mid-season lull, and with all the talk this week about the crossover leaderboards with Florida courses, Griffin did most of his best work during the water logged Florida swing this season with a T21 at Honda, T35 at the PLAYERS, and T14 at Bay Hill, which was the finish that got him into this event.
Matthew Southgate — Despite not having played in The Open since 2018, the links specialist has two Top 12 finishes in four Open appearances. His game can be incredibly spotty, but with three Top 10 finishes in his past sevens starts, he’s flashed enough form to roll the dice on at this discount.
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PARLAYS!!!!!
In case you didn’t “text it to yourself” like Cam did on the best bets show, here is the super lotto max, “to make the cut” parlay I put together while we doing the show. Research you can trust. I initially played this 8 ways, then replayed it with one more person at the bottom until I got to 11 and left like I had wasted enough money. The players listed at the bottom are ones who drop off for the smaller versions.
WATCH: Best Bets, First Round Leader, Parlays
Additionally, along with the solos listed above (and playing it as a 5-legger) I did a round robin of these Top 40s in combos of 3-way parlays
THE TIDBITS
Sure, he’s playing two lineups in the $4,444 Milly Maker this week, and let us in on his strategy during Wednesday’s show, Tambo also aggregated the best free content from around the internet this week and put it all into one place.
READ: Tambo’s Tidbits on Twitter
The Weather
It’s funny, despite the constant wind in the mid-teens basically every day, this is considered relatively calm. Bless you, The Open. There may be a marginal edge to the PM/AM, but that could also be gone two hours from now, so don’t bother yourself. The weather on Saturday has already shift since Tambo and I did the show sic hours ago. The wind gusts and rain have actually diminished a bit, while Sunday morning seems a gustier now. Being able to predict the wind and rain in most places is a challenge; predicting it on the English coastline is almost impossible.
Frankly, weather reports are likely to be more valuable for showdown content this week. So watch Tambo and Hoop on MMN after rounds one and two to get you prepped.
WIND TOWER: HOYLAKE
DRAFTKINGS
Strangely, we’re not seeing UBER chalk really anywhere. Rory and Bobby Mac seem like the two most likely to breach through the 20% barrier in large field GPPs (obviously, they’ll be much higher than that in lower entry, higher buy in contests.) Other than that, especially with the extended pricing, getting relatively unique is going to be quite easy.
Tambo and I talked through that new pricing, and the most common lineup builds and how to tweak those to make them unique non today’s show. (Always hit the time codes btw)
WATCH: BRITISH OPEN DRAFTKINGS PICKS, LINEUPS, OWNERSHIP
If you need a sure fire way to make sure no one duplicates your lineups, here are a collection of sub options $6,500 guys (jabronis) I used in my 150 build. And may or may not have used in some $200 single entries.
FINALLY
Feeling pretty dead after six show, articles, newsletters, radio spots, etc this week, yet I still couldn’t be MORE PUMPED to enjoy The Open. Nothing like waking up way too early for four days and ruining your sleep schedule for a month, amirite?
I appreciate everyone supporting the shows this week, even getting us to No. 1 on the South African Podcast charts! Still time to get us up in other countries btw (downloads, ratings, reviews).
I just hope you enjoyed the product this week. I always want to go All-In on Major championship weeks and the feedback I’ve received this week is that people are in on more content. So hopefully I’ll have an avenue to do the same in 2024!
Good luck this week!
— PM