This week the Tour heads to Baltimore, with the Par 72 Caves Valley golf course making its Tour debut. A fellow Fazio design to Quail Hollow, the course (from what we can gather) is a bit odd - with long but potentially reachable Par 5s and Par 4s that are either super long, or a few of them are drivable. Usually the BMW is a birdie fest, but last year at Olympia Fields, when Rahm won, it played like a US Open with how thick the rough was. There’s no indication that’s going to be the case again this week. No cut this week, and with the Top 70 in the FedEx Cup playing (minus Patrick Reed, who is recovering from a bout of double pneumonia) and only 30 spots available for East Lake, the cliche that “Every Shot Matter”s is as apt as it is bound to be wildly repeated all week long. Despite them not showing any of the shots that matter.
My card is simple this week - I got Bryson at his opening price along with the rest of the world before it nearly halved, I found a book hanging a Berger number 10-15 points better than anybody else and pounced, and Rory is still Rory at 28/1. The DJ Travelers win from the restart, with all the best players in the world playing, feels like the right comparison - his number drifted just enough that he became almost an auto-bet at his price. I frankly can’t remember a Rory number this good in all the years I’ve been betting on golf, so, we’re taking it.
I went into full detail on the Bets, DK ownership, and the last week of the one and done on a quick show I released today. If you looking for the audio version, it’s actually up on the DFS MIX feed, not the PME feed.
On that show I went over the Prize Picks over/unders on the show too. Additionally, I’m finalizing a SUPER PROPS pool for NFL season with Prize Picks, and the only way to enter is to deposit on prize picks (like $20 if you want to dip your toe in the water) using our link or with code MMN. As a bonus they’ll match your deposit in playable cash up to $100.
Prize Picks is also awesome if you live in a state without sports betting available, as PP is in most states. Here’s what I ended up playing this week.
I mean, I bet all three to win. Hopefully they can all come Top 20.
The I did this for MAX ODDS
In sooth, I should have went with the Louis over in the DJ spot after he said this about his back and not being able to make it through the practice round
This could always be the classic Louis rope-a-dope, though. You never know with that guy.
Justin Freeman and I broke down all the tools, how to use them, and why you should in out NFL Research show using RuntheSims.com. There are free tools along with the premium tools. SEE…
Price too steep? Use this link for a discount — https://www.runthesims.com/mayo. And here’s the thing, if you hate the tools (you won’t), you cancel your sub within seven days and get your money back. No hard feelings. (some). You won’t find tools like this that are this customizable anywhere. If you’re serious about DFS or NFL betting and have real takes on games, AND don’t want some moron (pat mayo) giving you picks, the customizations for these tools are unmatched. You tell a computer what you want to see and then it will simulation the slate 10,000 times in under 10 second. It’s so fast.
We’re in full football mode now, with the priority of the Pat Mayo Experience being NFL from here on out. We’ll have NFC Win Totals Monday, AFC Thursday, and then a bunch of other shows, as well as Fantasy Football Picks And Bets continuing to churn out shows.
Also, we’re going to be launching the Season Long Mayo Prop Extravaganza (name still a work in progress) soon over at PrizePicks, but you’ll need to have deposited using the code MMN to get into it - which, you can do, and get up to $100 in FREE money when you do. Also, it’s soft lines, which is a compelling reason to play there.
Fantasy Football Picks And Bets will have Prize Picks and DraftKings Picks for the final Week 3 preseason slates. There’s literally no freer money out there than preseason NFL over/unders. may as well take advantage.
Nothing looks too interesting this week in terms of the weather - as of now, slight rain risk overnight on Friday and Saturday nights, but seemingly the biggest impact that would have is making the course softer for the weekend. Check back here closer to lock if you’re curious about any changes.
Longtime newsletter readers will know the stat I’m about to pull, but per Rick Gehman, ~83% of lineups spend at least 49.8K and ~94.5% of lineups spend at least 49.5K, and given it’s a 69 man field, no cut event, there are only going to be so many ways you can play chalky plays without ending up in a chalky lineup. We talked about it on the DraftKings show, but Rahm is going to be very chalky, and Rasa and I are both in agreement that Aaron Wise is the best play in the low 6Ks. I am also playing Phil, Leishman, and Lee Westwood in the 6Ks, so what the fuck do I know?
Rough Ownership guesses (which will be rougher than usual because of the compressed schedule for lineups to be built):
People are using a bunch of Hudson Swafford. I’m thinking he’ll end up like 8-12%. I get it, the ball striking the last two starts has been so legit. And he’s the min price, so he makes all the studs work. That’s just too high for me to play. If Swafford beats me, he beats me.
Stay up to date on the real time ownership numbers when you’re a member of Fantasy National. Click that link and get a discount. And, you know, all the other stats and tools provided.
Euro Tour Picks
The Omega European Masters is this week, and Tom and Sky have all the plays. One of the premier events over there, it’s the part of the calendar is looking for doubles, so head over to the Euro Picks and Bets show for the actual analysis. Also, Tom just launched a newsletter of his own, be a pal and sub. It’s free.
Cody and Paul ARE BACKKKKKKK with picks for a hilariously bad card on the UFC. These are usually the ones where they have the biggest edges however. Watch it now and find out the plays.
There are some banger shows dropping over the next fives days
If you’re DraftKings this week here are the MOST UPDATED rankings around
Good luck this week