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BMW Championship Bets, DK Ownership
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BMW Championship Bets
What do we do with extra money in the betting account? BET THREE TOURS!!!!! makes it easier to give it all back that way.
Cam Young — Near the tops in the field in driving and irons, the putter went frigid for Young. That happens to him from time-to-time, but he’s usually solid on either side of the pendulum: Extremely good or hilarious bad. And it never seems to be sticky. At a course with massive greens, ala St. Andrews, if Young can recapture his lag putting strokes, he can go full Will Zalatoris and notch that long awaited win.
Joaquin Niemann — There’s no ultra long shot I feel comfortable backing, so Niemann it is from slightly down the board. The Chilean hasn’t been lighting it up lately, but his game looks like it could be close to putting it all together. Niemann was Top 10 T2G a week ago, and finally gets to back to bentgrass, his preferred putting surface.
Collin Morikawa — Wilmington Country Club is a great unknown to a lot of us. The bentgrass greens are gigantic, the fairways look thin, and there are bunkers everywhere. So, either the bombers are going to gauge the place to death or the more accuracy based drivers, with fire irons are going to win, much like we saw in years gone by at Firestone. Morikawa is the hedge on all types. He flipped the switch last week and the driver and irons returned. If he can build off that, we know he’s always been at his best on bentgrass greens, and the price is right for an elite talent.
WEEK 1 NFL
The PME PGA Listener’s League is finished for 2022, which only means the NFL LL is FIRED UP!!!!! Link is now LIVE and it’s filling QUICK. So get your spot.
If you want Fantasy Draft Cheatsheets, the RANKS are all here…
Top 150 https://bit.ly/22Top150Ranks
If Fantasy isn’t your jam, me, Cust, and Geoff are back THURSDAY with our 2022 NFL Awards selections. But since you’re here anyways, here’s the advanced link
Next week, more Cust/Geoff + the RETURN of Cam and Pizzola. Football’s ALMOST HERE!!!!!!!
GALAXY BRAIN: NFL COMPS
We are on a new track this week, so looking back at previous events is going to be viewed as a fools errand by most. But you’re not most, you’re a Newsletter subscriber and come here for the goods.
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Tom Brady
3. Justin Herbert
4. Matthew Stafford
5. Patrick Mahomes
6. Josh Allen
Pretty good list, right? Unless your CUST, this list includes the top-2 quarterbacks in the game, the GOAT, maybe the best QB of the past decade, maybe the best QB of the next decade and the reigning Super Bowl champion. That list is the ranking in QBR for last season against opponents that finished with a winning record. Why bring that up in a golf newsletter? This list highlights the guys who showed up big against strong competition and would that not have you trending to picking them to win in a big playoff spot?
So while the BMW this week is on a different course than years past, the elite level of competition is constant. See where I’m going with this? I’m looking to back golfers that have proven the ability to play well against the best, regardless of track. From 2018-20, 23 players qualified for the BMW all three seasons and eight of them are not in the field this time around. The 15 that are playing this week …
- Billy Horschel, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Kevin Kisner, March Leishman, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlory, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele
Only one player has gained strokes across the board (T2G, OTT, APP, ARG and P) in two of the past three BMW’s. That player opened as a +6500 long-shot at DK Sportsbook and outside the top-15 in DFS markets. He’s nursing a neck injury (though his WD last week was in part to be in position to play this week) and hasn’t looked good in the two months since his fourth place finish at the US Open, but Hideki Matsuyama has flashed the ability to dominate a high-end field at this event.
This is a longer course, so it stands to reason that off-the-tee is going to be valuable and we always know that approach is as key as any metric.
Seven times has one of the above players gained at least 3.5 strokes on approach at the BMW over the past three seasons:
- Corey Conners and Joaquin Niemann (twice)
- Tony Finau, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay (once)
Eight times has one of the above players gained at least 3 strokes off-the-tee at the BMW over the past three seasons:
- Rory McIlroy (three times)
- Jon Rahm (twice)
- Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay and Joaquin Niemann (once)
Rory and Rahm are the two most expensive players in the DK player pool this week and they makes all sorts of sense. You don’t need me to tell you that. If you build around those first three bolded names (Hideki, Conners and Niemann), you’re left with $8,233 left per player. Here’s a brief overview at some of the players priced in that neighborhood:
Max Homa: The sixth best putter on Bent in this field over the past 24 rounds, hasn’t lost off-the-tee since January.
Tyrell Hatton: In two August events, Hatton has dominated tee-to-green once (+7.1 at Wyndham) and with the putter once (+5.6 strokes at St. Jude).
Aaron Wise: The sixth best tee-to-green over the past 24 rounds played in easy scoring conditions, he’s gained over 4 strokes tee-to-green in 5 of his past 7 measured events and has brought the flat stick to both of his BMW appearances (+2.7 strokes in both events).
Adam Scott: Coming off of the fifth best putting week of his career (+6.4 strokes) and showed the chops to compete with the best at this event (9th place finish in 2019, +3.1 strokes on approach that week).
Billy Horschel: Mentioned on the list above, showed well at Wyndham despite losing on approach and around-the-green … it was minimal, but he did gain at both last week in just two rounds of action. If he puts it all together, he carries nice win equity at this price point (hell, he did it in June when he won Memorial)
Nothing crazy expected out there…
BMW DraftKings Ownership (guesses)