Arnold Plamer Inv. Picks, Bets, DraftKings Notes

PLAYERS Schedule

Mar 01, 2023

PME PLAYERS SCHEDULE FRI/SAT — Players DK Intro/Pricing @RickRunGood SUN — Players Research MON — Players Bets @gfienberg17 @timanderson87 TUE — Players Best Bets @CamStewartLive @robpizzola WED — players Final Bets/DK @ToeTagginTambo FRI — Cut Sweat LIVE

Of note: Rick had something come up, so a special guest will be filling in for him and Ben Rasa.

HOT LINKS

API DraftKings Picks, Bets & One and Done

Netflix Full Swing Recap Ep 1/2/3

NFC Win Total Recap + Cust LIV TOUR Corner

API Bets

Will Zalatoris — The concerns over Zalatoris’ health appear to be over after his immaculate ball striking performance at The Genesis two weeks back. We’re always looking for courses which won’t require the winner to breach -20, and Bay Hill certainly qualifies. The winner hasn’t been better than -12 in any of the past four year, with two single-digits under par victors. Although Will Z has been pretty brutal on the greens in his career, his lag putting has been notably good, and a great fit for the giant greens, while his short game remains quite underrated. The faster the greens and harder the course the better chance Zalatoris has of victory.

Tony Finau — Tambo was correct. I went with Finau. Couldn’t help myself. It was between Homa, JT and Finau for me. So expect one of those other two to win now.

Tom Kim — While he’ll likely be my pick to win next week, Kim’s odds have simply slipped too far for his upside this week. He’s dropped strokes to the field driving and on approach in consecutive events for the first time since earning his full TOUR card, but the long irons have continued to be much better than the field, and while distance is always going to be lacking, his accuracy continues to be elite. Then it just comes down to the putter. He’s never played API in his career, but he’s been especially potent on Bermudagrass in his short career. You’ll likely know pretty quickly with Kim, either he’s making everything or nothing: Hopefully it’s one of his hot weeks.

Tommy Fleetwood — The irons aren’t back to elite levels, but he hasn’t dropped strokes to the field in a PGA event since the 2022 API. A tournament where he still finished T20. The short game won’t be an issue, and with the expected blustery conditions, Fleetwood could finallllllllllllllly get that long awaited breakthrough

Jessica Korda — Because Sky says so.

XFL DraftKings Picks, Bets

Week 2 was a far more profitable week in the XFL DraftKings streets. I was one more decent half from someone named Sal Cannella from taking down the $100, while my co-founder at Run The Sims, Justin Freeman, needed a guy they call Nick Holley to do anything in the second half to win the $222. Alas, they combined for zero points, so no huge win. But us, and the RTS subs were very live in every contest with a half to go in the slate. Plus, the bets did very well!

Justin has tinkered with the market shares and usages and incorporated everything into the simulations and projections again, now that we have even more information, so hopefully, there’s a breakthrough coming while DraftKings is still guaranteeing so much money for the XFL. The main slate starts Saturday this week (it was Thursday last week and no one seemed to know that), and there’s a $50K to first $15 contest, $10K to first $222 (with only 250 players), and a $10K to first Saturday night showdown contest. So, a ton of money up for grabs.

With some good info and tools, and a bit of luck, you can make more in three hours than the guys in the XFL do for the season. Run The Sims has the tools and lineup builder to make this easy and you don’t even have to watch. Code “MAYO” gets you 10% off as well.

Here are the three top players after 10,000 sims on DraftKings this week.

TOOLS: XFL SIMULATIONS/PROJECTIONS/LINEUP BUILDER

The best market for profit in all of XFL is Prize Picks. Standard sportsbooks are tooo chicken to release props for the league, but Prize Picks has been releasing numbers every week. The lines get beat into place pretty quickly upon dropping (nothing out as of Wednesday afternoon, not even for Thursday yet), but this is where we feel we have the biggest edge before adjustment. The Run The Sims Prize Picks tool will give you best percentages on all props for the week, but you’ll do best if you hit them as close as possible to them getting released.

Use code DOP at Prize Picks for a deposit match up to $100

If you want to give it a spin and try and build a bankroll, use code “DOP” at prize picks on first deposit and get a match on your money up to $100. So then at least you have $200 to try and grow.

The Tidbits

Fresh off winning another seat into the NBA Live Finals, Tambo still had the heart to compile together the best free into from around the interwebs for API this week…

Tyler Tamboline @ToeTagginTambo

TAMBO’S TIDBITS ⛳️🧵 Every week I read/watch a LOT of the free PGA content around the industry. I compile all of the information that stands out to me and can help you with your Bets/DFS play. Here’s my 10+ favorite tidbits for the #APInv⛱️ RT/FOLLOW ⤵️🙌🏼

API WEATHER

As you probably have heard by now, the wind is going is going to play a factor this week at Bay Hill. Currently, Thursday looks a little worse for the AM wave, but nothing too significant, just a slight advantage for the PM wave. Friday is where things get dicey. From 7am-12pm gusts are expected to be between 17-23mph with a consistent wind around 10mph. From 12pm to the end of play, gusts are expect to be between 23-30mph with a consistent wind from 13-15mph. So, the afternoon seems like it will play more difficult. The assumption is that PM/AM stack are the way to go to get the best oof the weather. But it’s not like that wave has it easy.

Additionally, while I’ve been right about predicting when the wind is going to hit recently, my implementation has been totally wrong. Nothing like nailing the PLAYERS weather a year ago, only to see them delay action and force all the guys I rostered into the worse conditions of the year. Fun times. So, there’s never going to be a correct answer, and as we’ve seen, even when one wave has an advantage, it doesn’t mean certain players from the other side of the draw can’t win.

You can decide what’s best for you, and I think that strategy is dependant on how many lineups you’re playing and the size of contests. In the $5 I jammed 75 lineups this week. 28 are PM/AM stacks, 18 are AM/PM and the rest are blended between the two. I did use the PM/AM draw as a tie breaker between guys I was stuck in however.

For LIVE betting, Saturday also looks quite blustery, with gusts up to 20mph most of the day. So, there’s a chance so a player posting a decent number early in the day and be way back of the leaders, only to watch the pack come back to them. Then Sunday conditions look amazing and there could be 64/65s out there, so jumping on a few bombs like this may may dividend at an event which has seen a lot of big comeback wins.

— PM