Arnold Palmer Inv. Research, First Look
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API
Well, Honda turned out to be pretty interesting on Sunday after all. Even squeezed out a Woodland Top 5 after resigning to getting wiped out for the week. That rarely happens so I’m going to enjoy it.
Enjoying it more are Skyler, Pat Perry, and THE LEGEND STEWITE for cashinf Straka at triple digits. Great work fellas.
With the change in the PGA Schedule this year and the elimination of the post-Riviera WGC, the Arnold Palmer Invitational has gotten some of its shine back, with a solid field showing up to Bay Hill as a pre-Players tuneup.
WATCH: Arnold Palmer Inv Research + Preview
Former winners Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton, Marc Leishman, Rory McIlroy and elites like Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Big Dick VIK, Will Z, and Sam Burns highlight the field, but even the next tier – guys like Adam Scott, Kevin Kisner, Max Homa, Cam Davis, Cameron Champ, and Jason Day make this field an improvement on last year’s event.
Of that group, all have played in the USA already this year except 2020 API champ Hatton. Making his stateside debut, and now ranked No. 23 in the world, the Brit has finished T6/T4/T28 in three Middle East start in January and February.
There’s always stop in there field given to the current US Amateur champion (as long as they’re still an AM), in case you were wonder who James Piot was when you’re scrolling names.
PME DK RAKE FREE LISTENER LEAGUE (Link in Vid Description)
You’ll remember last year mostly for the Saturday, where Jordan Spieth (skipping the event this year) got a hole-in-one as he rode his return to form, and for Bryson’s antics on the Par 5 6th, where he took an aggressive line over the water to the hole. Sunday was tough, as the combination of wind and tough pins saw most everyone except Bryson and Lee Westwood eject.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Proximity 200+ Yards
Opportunities Gained
Par 3s Gained 200-225 Yards
Here’s the rolling report from my custom stats (with Honda numbers btw) sorted by the leaders from the past 24 rounds
Course
Course: Bay Hill
Yardage: 7,419
Par: 72
Greens: Bermuda
Past Winners
2021: Bryson DeChambeau -11
2020: Tyrrell Hatton -4
2019: Francesco Molinari -12
2018: Rory McIlroy -18
2017: Marc Leishman -11
2016: Jason Day -17
2015: Matt Every -19
2014: Matt Every -13
2013: Tiger Woods -13
REMINDER: The weather in 2020 was ridiculous on the weekend when Hatton won. Fitzpatrick (69 in Round 4) was the only player to crack 70 on the weekend. Tyrrell Hatton was the first player to fire two rounds over par on a weekend and still win since Geoff Ogilvy at the 2006 U.S. Open. Of course the forecast can change as the week goes on, but early indications show the leaders may get pelted with 30mph winds Saturday afternoon. Considering Rory McIlroy and Francesco Molinari both staged at least six stroke Sunday comebacks in 2018 and 2019, no one is ever dead at Bay Hill.
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Notes
The field size is smaller at the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational than in a normal week. Since it’s an invitational, similar to the Genesis Invitational a couple of weeks back, a higher percentage of the field — at least 53% percent — will make the cut. This allows for more flexibility when building lineups at the bottom end of pricing, especially when the very bottom of the pricing has almost no chance of seeing the weekend
Since 1983, No. 6 has produced 23 scores in the double-digits. That’s the most on TOUR by a large margin
The par 3s average over 215 yards in length. The best players at that distance:
The greens at Bay Hill have annually played extremely quick in comparison to most courses. The players with the most Strokes Gained: Putting per round on fast + LIGHTNING greens per round, over their past 36 rounds:
If you wondering fast + LIGHTNING but only on Bemruda…
For anyone who might be itching to play Rickie Fowler now that we’re back in Florida and he made a cut, DON’T. Rickie’s led the field at Honda in putting through 3 rounds and losing 4.7 strokes with his irons overall.
Conversly, Adam Svennson, Danny Willett, and MITO have all lost at least 4.00 strokes putting and gained at least 6.1 strokes ballstriking. In an odd turn of events, Horschel was second the field ball striking, finishing only behind Lowry, bit was a disaster on and around the greens. Which is. avery atypical Billy Ho week.
API Soft Props?
First off…
Use code “MMN” at PrizePicks.com and get a match deposit of up to $100.
Deposit $100. Get another $100. So there’s a free $100 start. But Prize Picks just launched single hole plays. This week they offered an over/under of 4.5 for hole 18 yet Fantasy National revealed the birdie or better percentage on that hole was only 36%. If you stuck with it all four round you made some nice profit. This week may be the opposite.
Not certain which Par 5s they’ll make available for the single hole game as if yet, but you can see, if it’s Hole 16 just blindly take unders with a 57% birdie or better rate, and big oversd for the remiaing Par 5s.
API Mixed Condition
T2G Past 12 rounds at Bay Hill
Past 24 Rounds 200+ Proximity
Past 24 Rounds Par 3s 200-225 Yards
Here’s what my FN Mixed Condition Model looks like…
And here are the results…
Oh good. Another Will Z tease week. We may get some good value on Willett, Young, and Higgo, though. Guess we’ll have to wait for the nunbers to drop Monday Monring.
— PM