LATE NEWS
I was on the fence for full fade in DFS anyway, and this just helped me make a decision. There could be value in going to him now that everyone will inevitably be off of Hideki, but whenever Deki has been rumored to be “hurt” it’s never gone well for him. Plus, there are other lower owned option in his general range I just like better any way: Wyndy C and Sahith for me.
I decided to jump on over to Underdog and fade Deki Rd1 there too. I tried to pair him with Cantlay and Xander but I’m over my limit on both of them for Rd1 already. So I went to a lower on Morikawa. The two banger of Kawa lower/Deki Higher. You can tail (or fade) here:
https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-esxo8fEc2n
FIVE WINNERS for $1,000 EACH
If you don’t have an Underdog already, GET ONE NOW. And you’ll get a deposit match up to $100.
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
Now, after you do that (or have an existing Underdog account), full out this 15 second survey, But filling out this survey it puts in a draw for ONE OF FIVE $1,000 Underdog Credit giveaways. And will make you eligible for the PME contests on Underdog once they start rolling out. 15 seconds for a chance at $1000. That’s +EV
TAKE 15 Seconds and Fill Out Survey to get into Draw for $1000 Underdog Credits: https://forms.gle/f6bW4KAA4NWTxCfc6
Many people have asked me over the years the best way to support the show, and signing up with our Promo codes and engaging is actually far and away the best way.
ALSO, Anyone going to be in Vegas over Masters/UFC 300 weekend? PME and DOP are gonna be tehre doing watch alongs!
HOT LINKS
READ: API Full Preview & Breakdown
WATCH: API DFS Picks, Ownership, Lineups & Weather
WATCH: API Best Bets/Placement Markets
WATCH: Arnold Palmer Inv Picks, One and Done | Puerto Rico, LIV Hong Kong Bets | Best Player in World?
BETS
API
Xander 23/1 — Rates third in my Bay Hill Model and first in my course fit rankings. I’ve resisted the urge to bet him for the past year; I suppose it’s my turn to donate to the fund now. I used a 30% bet boost at Bet365 to take this to 23/1 btw.
Ludvig Aberg 25/1 — At a course which priories long iron play over wedges, Aberg is almost an auto play at this point. Although he’s posted quality results almost everywhere, he’s gained the most strokes this season on approach at Torrey Pines and RIV as opposed to Pebble and Sony. Plus, his prodigious driving alleviates a lot of the pressures at Bay Hill. Over the past 24 rounds he sits Top 3 in this field in Par 4s gained, Opportunities gained, and Par 3s gained from 200+ yard, where all four happen to land at Bay Hill. The numbers love him. Geoff loves him. He passes the eye test. So, I’m in. Problem is, then all those three things align (aka VIK) it takes much longer for the breakthrough win against an elite than you’d hope.
Wyndham Clark 55/1 — It’s the principle of the matter. I’m not especially in love with Wyndy C this week, but I don’t quite understand how his odds can be longer than the likes of JT Poston and Eric Cole. I know I bet on him also, but what’s really separating Clark and Aberg at the moment? You know, except two wins in elevated events and a major championship.
Corey Conners 80/1 — Conners was Top 20 T2G at PGA National, and that was driving the ball worse than his weekly baseline. He’s now gained more than three strokes on approach in consecutive events now now gets to tackle a course which plays against his weaknesses. Usually you’d say “into his strengths”, but that’s not really true. The longer rough is a bit of an equalizer for lousy short game, something which Conners overcomes a lot by simply hitting greens in regulation. And, like at Augusta, the Bay Hill greens are some of the handful which don’t seem to give him constant fits. He’s gained putting two of the last three years. Not a ton, but that’s better than his usually -3 per week. Sort of like low-rent Zalatoris, Conners game seems far more suited for courses and tournaments with a higher winning score in tougher conditions. Valero notwithstanding.
Tom Hoge 100/1 — He can win this things if everything breaks his way. But he has hardest part down: He’s second min approach in this feed over the past 24 and best in 200+ Yard proximity. He’ll need to be Top 5 in the field putting, dodge the water, and not chip himself out of the tournament. Seems like a lot, but that’s a real path at triple digits.
List 110/1 — He’s lost over 13 strokes putting in his last four rounds at API over the last two years, but what this author predisposes is: What if he doesn’t this time?
Wacky Valimaki — High ball flight can hold these firm greens, won at a coastal track in Oman on Euro Tour (like Kitayama), and has proven himself in windy conditions across the pond. Look, only triple digit guys win, so I needed more. Them the rules.
Puerto Rico
Chris Gotterup 28/1 — Was seventh a year ago at the PRO and just lead the field in approach at the Cognizant.
Brandon Wu 33/1 — Trust the putter will show up at the spots where it always does. He’d actually gained on approach in two straight before taking a large dump next to the Bear Trap statue and walking off the course last week.
Chan Kim 40/1— Bet him last week, and he was fine. He made a critical par save on the Saturday restart to make the cut, which ended up winning me a ton of cash. So, I can pay it back again in a weaker field. He dropped strokes at PGA National off the tee which was the first time that happened in a measured event for him sine Pebble Beach in 2022. Granted, he doesn’t have all that many measured starts in career. Still, if he can get that back to normal, continue with his solid iron play, and can keep that putter HOT, it’s the perfect mix to ascend to the top of the leaderboard this week.
Robert MacIntyre — Best player in the field on Par 5s and proximity from beyond 200 yards in the PRO field over the last 24 rounds. Issue is, dude legit can putt. In three of past four starts (Torrey, Phoenix, Cognizant) he’s losing an average of 2 strokes PER ROUND putting. That seems like you’re trying to miss. However, on the slow paspalum greens in Mexico two weeks ago, he was able to come out slightly ahead. If he can do that again, his ball striking numbers point to someone who can win.
Rico Hoey 110/1 (5 Places) — Nope. This is not a create-a-player. If he was, then someone put his putting skill level at zero. He gained 3.2 ball striking in Mexico, and followed it up with a more impressive +7.24 ball striking at Honda. Unfortunately, he lost almost 10 strokes putting in those events. That’s somehow worse than Bobby Mac. But hey, maybe he can get lucky here. Longshots have been the play in Puerto Rico over the years and this one makes a ton of sense if he has his one good putting week of the year.
LIV Hong Kong
Cam Smith 20/1 — First off, Cam is 18/1 to win the Masters and 20/1 to win this tournament. So, that was good enough for me. Additionally, Aussies won four of the past five events at this venue on the Asian/Euro Tour before becoming a LIV track. Last last of which, in 2023, where Smith finished second.
Lucas Herbert 65/1 — Not exactly lighting up LIV since moving over this year, but was able to spike a T10 in Oman in an Asian event two weeks ago. And since he’s an Aussie, I’ll roll with him.
F1 Tools
Before we get to the weather, I implored everyone to get the Run The Sims F1 Package before the first race in Bahrain as it’s the perfect tool to leverage one of the softest DraftKings games. Some of you did, and you good people chopped both large field GPPs with me! Here’s still a full season to go, and with code MAYO it’s less than $6 per race for the year. I did a walk through show with Justin Freeman last Friday is you’re winding how to use the tools. But honestly, I don’t know anything about F1, used the stock projections and exported lineups. Whole process took me less than a minute. So good $/hour on this one.
JOIN: RUN THE SIMS F1 DFS and BETTING TOOLS
Weather
Looks like scoring conditions Thursday all day. Then the wind starts Friday and keeps on rolling through Sunday. Hence why I mainly targeted “Lowers” on UD for Thursday.
WIND TOWER: Orlando Executive Airport
These aren’t always the most helpful stats, since wind at different course isn’t always similar, but here are the best players per rounds in average and windy AF conditions in their past 24 rounds.
JOIN: 20% OFF Tools and Stats at FantasyNational.com
— PM