API Bets, Picks + DK Own
I broke down most of the bets on the Live chat with Tambo on. Wednesday afternoon, but decided to add some FRLs after the fact. So here they are.
Zalatoris — We’re doing it again! The driving was a bit off at the Genesis and he failed to gain strokes putting for the sixth consecutive start, but the results keep coming. It’s now T6/2nd/T26 for Zalatoris in 2022. He’s tops in approach over the past 12 rounds and is No. 1 in proximity from beyond 200 yards. Tee to green, he absolutely checks out. We just need this to be the week he starts making his putts. Although it’s not very often, when Zalatoris gains on the greens, it’s usually a significant amount. The last three times he’s been a positive with the flat stick — all on Bermuda greens, btw — he’s averaging +3.3 SG: PUTT. That’s enough to win if everything else remains normal.
Burns — Nothing in his recent form would suggest a win, but if we rewind a month, Burns is +2000 in stronger fields. Yes, he’s in a bad stretch at the moment, but either this number is where he should have always been or we’re getting a HUGE value. I’ll take the value.
Robson Chinhoi (KENYA) — Sky was so good nailing Straka last week, lets ride with him here. Shifting over to the DP World Tour for this one because the number is just too juicy. The king of the Keyna Mini Tour, winner of four his last eight starts, gets a start in a watered down field at the Magical Kenya Open. Yes, it’s an absolute long shot, but he just win an event at this very course, and he doesn’t have to duke it out with Rory or Rahm for a win or Top 10, it’s Adrian Meronk and Oliver Bekker. It’s plausible this could happen. Hell, the +800 on the Top 40 is pretty enticing too.
Willett — There were a lot of positives to take away from the 2016 Masters champ’s performance at the Honda. Putting was not one of them. Willett was T12 in SG: T2G despite his T48 finish — that’s what losing 4.4 strokes on the green will do. The good news is he’s gained in two of four starts at Bay Hill in his career, so it’s not impossible for him to turn it around. Plus, if the weather gets dicey, that’s always to his benefit. From the players at the bottom of the board, Willett is an easy way to save salary.
API CONTENT HUB
Be it single round or full tournaments, Prize Picks has some soft props this week. Espcially for unders of 4.5 on Hole No. 16. It plays to the under ON AVERAGE. And that’s including all the water ball and players who are trash.
So, so you can load up and get 3x your money with a Two-Pick POWER PLAY. They even added Rory to the selection pool. Use Rory for the under.
GALAXY BRAIN: Stars And Scrubs For DraftKings
I use this space to dive deep down a rabbit hole and I’m not apologizing for that. Not one bit. That said, I’ll keep the train of thought a bit more simplistic and course specific for this week. Bay Hill is a long course with fast greens. It’s more complicated than that, but at it’s core, that’s the general make-up we are dealing with at the API this week. With the help ofFantasy National, we can hammer down around players that thrive in such spots. When hand building a GPP lineup, I’m not as interested in mean production as I am who could well be in for a peak 10% outcome on this track.
Over their last 36 rounds, there are 19 players currently in the field for this week that see BOTH their SG:P rank AND their SG:APP rank increase by over 15 spots when adjusting for these conditions. That is, 19 players that see a significant spike in field rank when putting on fast/lightening greens compared to slow/average greens AND a significant spike in field rank in approach on long courses compared to all others. Simplistic, but I’m looking for players comfortable on this specific makeup and those 19 players statistically have a better chance at reaching their top 10% outcome than the rest of the field. I’m using this player pool to pick my DraftKings stars (the names/prices will make more sense in a minute) for this exercise. I’ve already bet good ole’ Willy Z and he checks both of these boxes. As does Rory McIlroy (top-10 in this tournament in each of the past 5 years) and Justin Rose (he did have back-to-back top 15’s here in 2017 and 2018).
Now it gets hairy with under $7,300 left per player left. Or does it? In piecing together the “scrubs” portion of this lineup, we need their optimal outcome. They are priced low for a reason: it’s not a lack of potential in the perfect spot, it’s a low floor that is often the result. So let’s use that 19 player pool from the first portion and trim it down. Those players saw their course specific profile ranks increase by over 15 spots from other course sets ups … let’s jack that increase in rank improvement up to 45+ spots in both categories. That’s a MASSIVE rate of improvement in a field that is already short by PGA standards. And guess what? Three names remain and they just so happen to tuck right in under the DraftKings salary cap:
Cameron Young: 4 straight top 30 finishes this season, gaining a cumulative of 8.7 strokes in APP and 6.9 P
Ian Poulter: Top 35 in 3 straight API’s, gained 2+ strokes in both APP and P last week for the first time in his past 9 tournaments.
Rickie Fowler: Top 20 in 3 of his past 5 API’s, finally found the putter last week (+5.2 SG:P, encouraging given that the flat stick burned him here last year). Although, you should probably ahere to logic and not use Rickie.
API DraftKings Ownership
Tough to know what is going to happen atthe Top between Rory, Rahm, and Hovland, but I’m guessing it’s tighter than the projections show.