NEW PARTNER/$5K Giveaways
If you did know yet, now you do. I have left my partnership with DraftKings after 7.5 years and am now an official partner of Underdog Fantasy. In terms of the show, nothing is going change, except I’ll like be adding MORE shows on top of what you already expect from The PME schedule. Betting isn’t going anywhere. DK picks aren’t going anywhere. But teaming with Underdog is going to allow me and the MMN team to expand out scope of content and do some pretty awesome interactive I things including on location meet ups, new contests, etc. I’m quite FIRED UP for it.
I do need you help however. With incentives, of course, because I wouldn’t ask you to do something if there wasn’t anything in it for you.
If you don’t have an Underdog already, GET ONE NOW. And you’ll get a deposit match up to $100
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
Now, after you do that (or have an existing Underdog account), full out this 15 second survey, But filling out this survey it puts in a draw for ONE OF FIVE $1,000 Underdog Credit giveaways. And will make you eligible for the PME contests on Underdog once they start rolling out. 15 seconds for a chance at $1000. That’s +EV
TAKE 15 Seconds and Fill Out Survey to get into Draw for $1000 Underdog Credits: https://forms.gle/f6bW4KAA4NWTxCfc6
I’ll be announcing officially this week, but wanted to give everyone a heads up first! Thanks for all the support over the years, and BIGGER and BETTER things are coming soon.
Plus, Underdog was the only place I could FADE Anthony Kim this weekend, so it’s already paying off!!!
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
But first, THE RESEARCH SHOW. I walked through Bay Hill, stats, courses, etc, and even went into the Puerto Rico Open at then and tried to dig up early picks for the week. I’ve included the models I used in the show in this news letter.
WATCH: Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Research, Guess The Odds | Puerto Rico Open Picks, Preview
2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Field
Field: ~70 Players
Cut: Top 50 and Ties
Lineup Lock: Thursday, March 7
Defending Champ: Kurt Kitayama
Only Tony Finau is skipping the event of eligible players.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Proximity 200+ Yards
Opportunities Gained
Par 3s Gained 200-225 Yards
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Course
Course: Bay Hill
Yardage: 7,466
Par: 72
Greens: Bermuda
9 Holes With Water
84 Sand Bunkers
Past Winners
2023: Kurt Kitayama -9
2022: Scottie Scheffler -5
2021: Bryson DeChambeau -11
2020: Tyrrell Hatton -4
2019: Francesco Molinari -12
2018: Rory McIlroy -18
2017: Marc Leishman -11
2016: Jason Day -17
2015: Matt Every -19
2014: Matt Every -13
2013: Tiger Woods -13
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F1 Tools
Before we get to Puerto Rico, I implored everyone to get the Run The Sims F1 Package before the first race in Bahrain as it’s the perfect tool to leverage one of the softest DraftKings games. Some of you did, and you good people chopped both large field GPPs with me! Here’s still a full season to go, and with code MAYO it’s less than $6 per race for the year. I did a walk through show with Justin Freeman last Friday is you’re winding how to use the tools. But honestly, I don’t know anything about F1, used the stock projections and exported lineups. Whole process took me less than a minute. So good $/hour on this one.
JOIN: RUN THE SIMS F1 DFS and BETTING TOOLS
Puerto Rico Open
Course: Grand Reserve Golf Club (Coco Beach)
Yardage: 7,506
Par: 72
Greens: Paspalum
12 Holes with Water in Play
63 Sand Traps
Winners
2023: Nico Echavarria -21 (By 2 over Akshay)
2022: Ryan Brehm -20 (By 6 over Max McGreevy)
2021: Branden Grace -19 (1 over Jhonny Vegas)
2020: Viktor Hovland -20 (By 1 over Josh Teater)
Field NOTES
Field: 132 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Lineup Lock: Thursday, March 7
Defending Champ: Nico Echavarria
Nate Lashley, Brandon Wu, Brice Garnett, Ryan Brehm, Michael Kim, Cameron Percy, and Vincent Whaley all have at least Top 20 finishes the past four years.
Daniel Berger had a T2 in his only appearance in 2019.
Cut Line has been EVEN PAR the last 3 years
Carson Young (T3/-16), who led by three and four shots, respectively after rounds one and two, closed with back-to-back 1-under 71s in rounds three and four to finish at 16-under 272; best finish in 12 starts this season prior to this week came with last week’s T29 at The Honda Classic; only previous TOUR start before this season was the 2021 Puerto Rico Open (MC); with the top-10 finish, earns a spot into the field at the Valspar Championship, site of his first-ever TOUR start
Nate Lashley (T3/-16) closed with a 3-under 69 to keep his Puerto Rico Open top-10 streak alive; in three starts, has finished T8/2019, T3/2022 and T3/2023
Coming off a T16 in last year’s Puerto Rico Open, Michael Kim (5 th/-15) closed his fourth start in the event with a 6- under 66; this week’s solo-fifth supplants his previous best of the season of T11/AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am • The lone Puerto Rico native (of five) in the field to make the cut, Rafa Campos closed with a 2-under 70 to finish
GUESS THE ODDS — API
I’m thinking the odds are going to be similar to what we just saw at Riviera, since it’s basically the same field.
Reminder: These are just my guesses. You don’t need to get bent out of shape about it.
Scottie 7
Rory 8
Xander 14
Viktor 16
Cantlay 18
Homa 20
Ludvig 22
Morikawa 22
Thomas 25
Spieth 25
Fleetwood 30
Zalatoris 35
Lowry 35
Clark 40
Fitz 40
Burns 40
Cam Young 40
T Kim 45
Theegala 45
Day 50
Mixed Condition Model — API
If you want to this more in-depth, check out the research show.
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I went more rudimentary with Puerto Rico. You can pick your favorite from recent form (btw, this field is stronger than most alternate event I’ve ever seen), but I isolated the courses from the Paspalum Swing (PRO, Corales, Cabo, Vidanta) and just looked at SG: TOTAL on those courses. Only Vidanta has shot link numbers, so this is the simple way to look at things. Here are leaders on those four courses per round over their last 24.
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And these are the top players in Spike% for SG: Total at these courses. I set the limit to percentage of rounds where a player gained 2 or more SG: TOTAL against the field.
Full API preview coming Monday along with Picks show with Feinberg. Until them, DO THESE THINGS!!!!
Use code “MAYO” at underdog for a deposit match up to $100
TAKE 15 Seconds and Fill Out Survey to get into Draw for $1000 Underdog Credits: https://forms.gle/f6bW4KAA4NWTxCfc6
— PM