Amex Research, First Look, MNF Notes
+ DP world Tour & Aussie Open
2022 American Express
Last year, when they got rid of the Amateurs, the event went from unwatchable to actually watchable, but now we’re back to 7 hour rounds, 3 courses, a 54 hole cut, and the course is worse and the celebrities even less known than at Pebble Beach. Oh, and Spieth and Dustin don’t show up.
This field isn’t terrible, with 8 guys in the top 30 in the world - Rahm, Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Ancer, Sungjae, Patrick Reed, and Matt Wolff. (Also, if you know Matt Wolff was still in the Top 30 in the world, I suspect you’re alone in that.) Throw in Phil, and it’s not half bad. Too bad we only have cameras and ShotTracker on one of the courses. Your tilts will be incredibly frustrating this week.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 3s Gained
I may make some tweaks during the week, but the Initial long term (75 rounds) form for my key stats looks like this.
Course: Stadium Course at PGA West (SC)
Course: Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West (TC)
Course: LA Quinta CC (LQ)
2021: Si WOOOOOOO Kim -23
2020: Andrew Landry -26
2019: Adam Long -26
2018: Jon Rahm -22
2017: Hudson Swafford -20
2016: Jason Dufner -25
2015: Bill Haas -22
2014: Patrick Reed -28
Remember, there’s only Shotlink data from the Stadium Course. Fortunately, they played three rounds there last year. (Only two this year).
For DK showdown purposes, all courses and yield incredibly low scores, but La Quinta presents an eagle opportunity on each of the four par 5s. It’s not that big of an advantage. But it is an advantage if you’re looking to course stack in showdown.
Found some random Shotlink notes from the 2020 American Express (The last time it was the three course rotation)
12 of the past 13 winners have played at least one of the first two Hawaii events to start the year. Since 2007, six of the 15 American Express champions made this event the site of their first win (last: Adam Long, 2019).
Of course, it can’t go unmentioned that this is a Pete Dye track. So, here are the SG: Total leaders on Pete Dye courses over their past 24 rounds…
No idea if this is anything or not, but during the research show, I got on Valero page digging into Andrew Landry, where I noticed a lot of crossover success between these two course. Like I said, may be nothing, but if not, here’s are the numbers at the Oaks Course since 2017 overall…
Let’s go Gary!
Random Stat Of The Week
Nate Lashley (-3.45 SG:Putting, 2.91 SG:APP) hit solid irons before missing the cut this week on account of absolutely getting destroyed with his putter. Worth keeping an eye out for this week if the price is silly.
HUGE shout out to our pol Andy Lack on taking down the PME Open this week
Oh, EURO (now DP World Tour) is BACK this week in Abu Dhabi (Rory, VIK, Morikawa), which means Sky and Tom are back with the show. They’re going LIVE on MMN YouTube to take your Qs Tuesday at 530pm ET.
You can catch the replay on the DFS MIX Podcast feed afterwards.
Also, there will daily Aussie Open picks from our guy Jon Reid every day on the video and podcast feeds. That too will be on the DFS MIX feed. So, like, sub to that shit.
MNF — ARZ/LAR
There’s still a chance to bink NFL this week, don’t worry. And Run The Sims allows you to attack the game from any angle you like. And there’s good news, RTS is only $69 through the Super Bowl, and code “MAYO” will get you 50% off, soooooo $34.50. If you tailed the Prize Picks from the Prop Simulator from Wednesday’s newsletter, you already have it more than paid off!
I’ve tinkered with the score to have the Cardinals winning 30-27, so my projections reflect that. Additionally, I have James Conner OUT for the simulations. His status is still unknown at this moment, but Run The Sims can run 10,000 sims in less than 10 seconds, so I can just add him back in when I hear official news. Or you can just add him in now if you like. It’s very customizable.
Here’s what I got…
That presents some nice opportunities on Prize Picks for the game. If you use code “MMN” you get a match deposit of up to $100. So, deposit $100 and get yourself a free $100 play, essentially.
Here’s the “Fantasy Points” slate, but you can go yardage, receptions, etc if you like. The Sony Michel over Fantasy Score appears like a good starting point.
For DraftKings Showdown, since I have Edmonds in and Conners out, I’m overwhelmed with Edmonds Captain rosters. Here are the only four roster combos which came out over 30 times in 10,000 simulations. Obviously, this will massively shift if Conner is active.
Think mine suck? 1) You’re probably right. 2) It’s easy to adjust for your own…
- Deebo Samuel has 359 PPR points on 149 touches this season. That’s 2.41 points per touch. How crazy is that. A little apples to oranges here, but 2007 Randy Moss averaged 2.33 points per target. That means a Deebo touch this season is worth 3.4% more PPR points than a target for Moss in the greatest WR season of all-time.
- Tom Brady had a solid game to open the postseason … not like that’s ever happened before
- Mike Evans has seen 7+ targets in 10 games this season: 64 catches, 870 yards and 12 TDs
- Josh Allen averages a tick over 20 completions per game for his career
o In his last 5 games with 20+ completions: 33.5 DK PPG (286 pass yards and 3.2 pass TD per game)
- In 7 games against playoff teams this season, Ja’Marr Chase has piled up 754 yards and 9 TDs
- Jalen Hurts’ past 5 games: 4 TD passes, 6 INT, 2.2% TD rate and 6.9 yards per pass
o Tim Tebow’s final 7 starts as a NFL QB: 6 TD passes, 5 INT, 3.4% TD rate, 7.6 yards per pass