AMEX Picks, DK & Info + NFL Div Round
AMEX Picks, DK & Info + NFL Div Round
If you’ve been looking for me on Twitter, I’m currently SHADOW BANNED after posting copyright material. Hopefully I’ll be back by the weekend ThePME, however, until then I’ll be controlling the Mayo Media Account if you need anything or want to get updates on the shows or info…
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HOT LINKS
AMEX DraftKings Picks, Bets & One and Done
AMEX Bets & Picks
Div Round Spread Picks + Cust Corner
AMEX Research
DraftKings Listener Leagues
PME RAKE FREE PGA DraftKings CONTEST
PME RAKE FREE DraftKings NFL CONTEST
AMEX Bets
Tony Finau — Over the past 50 rounds on TOUR Finau doesn’t rank outside the Top 7 in any of the main SG metrics: OTT (6th), APP (6TH), ATG (7th), PUTT 5th). That’s ludicrous. Likely why he’s won three of past seven starts. Finau’s plenty familiar with the PGA West set up with two Top 15s the past three years, and since we’re not concerned about him winning anymore, this seems like as good as place as any to jump back on the Finau train.
Tom Kim — The betting favorite last week lost almost 7 strokes with the putter. In two rounds! Each time he’s lost massively in his short career, he’s flipped the putting his next start. And the ball striking numbers were still elite at Sony too.
Cam Davis — Davis has faired well on Pete Dye tracks so far in his career, and he has the perfect amount of reps at PGA West combined with solid form to have a breakthrough. The Aussie has never finished worse than T29 at the American Express in three tries, with a T3 in 2021. Additionally, Davis has only missed one cut since last May’s PGA CHAMPIONSHIP, a run of 14 starts. Over the past 24 rounds, he sit Top 25 in Approach, Par 3s gained, Par 5s gained, and Opportunities gained; and is just one of a handful of players to rank inside the Top 35 in both key putting ranges. Davis is 14th from 5-10’ and 35th from 10-15’ — The scoring distances at the American Express
PGA DRAFTKINGS
On the DraftKings side, I’ve been trying to piece enough to together and find the players who won’t simply collapse on Sundays. So far, no dice. I did the walk through on the Sunday research show, and these are the Top players in my very short term (12 rounds) key stats. Make your own at FN btw.
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The Tidbits
I suggest you follow Tambo for the Tidbits every week. It’s a great recap of the best free info from around the space. Plus, Tambo and I talk through the DK slate every Wednesday on MMN, and now we’re splitting a One and Done team and going through our thought process each week.
WATCH: AMEX DraftKings Picks & Strategy
For more golf coverage, I highly recomend my guy Axis’ substack newsletter. Since you’re already on the page, you may as well check it out. Completely free!
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NFL PICKS
Staley, Lamar, Rodgers, KC BBQ, and the games. It’s all here…
WATCH: DIV RD Spread Picks, Staley & Cust Corner
SIXTH ANNUAL CUSTYS
Here’s a taste…
VOTE IN THIS YEAR’S CUSTY AWARDS
NFL Betting Insight
Jags at Chiefs (-8.5, 53)
Since 2000, playoff favorites in a game with a 50+ point total are 30-22 outright BUT just 23-29 ATS
Since 2000, overs cash 55.4% of the time in playoff games where a team is favored by over 7 points
Giants at Eagles (-7.5, 48)
Since 2000, overs cash 55.4% of the time in playoff games where a team is favored by over 7 points
Since 2000, playoff games pairing divisional opponents with a spread of 6+: underdogs are 11-5 ATS and overs are 11-5
Bengals at Bills (-5, 49)
Since 2000, AFC North teams are 21-13-1 (61.8%) ATS when an underdog in a playoff game
The Bengals are 10-2 ATS when Joe Burrow starts and is an underdog of more than 3 points (5 straight covers)
Cowboys at 49ers (-3.5, 46)
The 49ers are 6-1-1 ATS in their past 8 games as a playoff favorite (lone loss: 2012 Super Bowl vs BAL)
Overs are 7-1 (5 straight hits) in the last 8 games in which the 49ers cover a spread over 3 points
AMEX PAST YEAR TRENDS
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,060 (average Par 3: 188.3, average Par 4: 414.9, average Par 5: 571.3)
Defending Champion: Hudson Swafford (-23), it required a score of at least -17 to cash a top-10 and -14 to cash a top-20 … and that includes two moderate and one Windy AF days
Notes
Par 4 distance is all over the place. Of the 10 on the course …
3 measure under 375
2 measure 375-405
Other 5 are all over 435
Down the stretch, length and consistency will be important
Hole 15: 2nd longest Par 4 (468)
Hole 16: Longest hole on the course (600)
Hole 17: 165-yard Par 3
Hole 18: 3rd toughest hole last season
Four of the six toughest holes are Hole 13 or later
Past winners
2022 Hudson Swafford: 6.4 strokes gained putting allowed him to win despite being a negative in bogey avoidance
2021 Si WOO: 2.2 strokes better T2G than anyone else, 5th in Proximity in the 75-100-yard bucket
2020 Andrew Landry: Top-12 in both SG:T2G and SG:P, led the field in Good Drives Gained
2019 Adam Long: top-6 in proximity gained from 75-100 and 125-150
2018 Jon Rahm: Led the field in driving, 4th best in Proximity Gained from over 200 yards
2017 Hudson Swafford: 5th in both driving distance and good drives
Past 6 champions have a combined 1.6 strokes LOST around the green
2022 Notes
6 of the top-10 finishers either lost strokes putting or around the green (you just can’t lose in both spots. Joseph Bramlett was the highest finisher to do that and he came in at T-33)
Short putts
Each of the top-8 finishers gained strokes putting in that 10-15 foot window (6 of those 8 lost strokes from 20-25 feet and 6 of them lost strokes beyond 25 feet … 4 of them lost strokes in both of those categories)
Similar in 2021 (Si WOO) … 12 of the top 15 gained in that 10-15 foot range (11 of them lost strokes in at least one of the 20-25 foot or 25+ foot range)
SG: OTT
5 of the top 6 finishers in SG:OTT cashed top-15 paychecks (Swafford won without doing do, he actually lost ground off the tee, but ran pure with the putter, +6.4 strokes)
9 of the top 13 finishers gained distance (doesn’t have to be much at all, but an edge on the field makes everything a little easier)
9 of the top 15 in 2021 gained distance too
— PM