AMEX Finals Bets, UD Entry, Weather, DK Notes + NFL Optimal Projections

AND CUSTYS VOTING

Mayo Media

Jan 15, 2025

Si Woo, Harman, Hoge & Longshots on the betting card
3 Course Rotation; 54-hole Cut
Basically no wind all week
Only the Stadium Course has shot data

HOT LINKS

AMEX DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Weather, One and Done Strategy

READ: 2025 American Express Open, Bets, Course Preview, Event History

AMEX Picks, Bets, One and Done, Dubai Preview + Sony Recap

AMEX Research, Preview, Odds Guesses

NFL Div Rd Spread Picks | Vrabel to NE, Coaches | Cust Corner: All You Can Eat Rules

Use code “MAYO” at Underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000

American Express Betting Card

Much has been made of the amount of longshots have won the American Express over the last decade. A lot of which has been said by me. I’m overloading with bombs on the betting card along with their placements (Top 5, Top 8, Top 10; depending on the odds) in hopes to snag one. Since I’ve done this, it’s almost a lock that one of the favorites runs away with this

Winner

Si Woo Kim 40/1
Hoge 60/1
Harman 80/1

Longshots

Vegas 90/1 (With 5 Places)
Hoey 110/1 (With 10 Places)
C. Hoffman 200/1 (With 10 Places)
Montgomery 275/1 (With 8 Places)
Manassero 300/1 (With 10 Places)
Kizzire 350/1 (With 8 Places)
Garnett 350/1 (With 10 Places)
Hisatsune 400.1 (With 10 Places)

First Round Leader

Skinns 75 — Nicklaus Course

3-Man One and Done

Mayo: Tom Kim
Geoff: Hadwin
Cust: Cantlay

Si Woo Kim — Si Woo’s a former champ with three Top 11 finishes in his four career starts at AMEX. And there were a lot of positives to take away from is missed cut at Sony last week. Despite only playing two rounds he still finished 8th T2G, easily the most per round of anyone in the field. He just happened to lose 6 strokes on the green over those two rounds. While awful putting isn’t new to Si Woo it would be at PGA West: Over his 4 appearances he’s never lost strokes putting to the field.

Tom Hoge — I promised myself I wouldn’t lose more money on Hoge in 2025, but here we are. The irons have been as solid as usual and he’s actually putting well at the moment, it’s his driving that has fallen off a cliff. Hoge’s losing 2 strokes per start over his last five. But, at a course with essentially no rough and easy pins, Hoge should be able to take aim from about anywhere on the property.

Brian Harman —Despite only missing two cuts in the past 12 months, Harman only has two Top 10 over that stretch. Both at Pete Dye courses. His numbers are flat across the board, and maybe the spike highs are farther away than I may think, but he’s been comfortable enough at PGA West to post Top 10s in two of his past three starts, gaining four or more strokes on approach in both those starts.

Jhonny Vegas — Plenty of tournament history for the former champ and started the year out on fire at Sentry leading al players in approach. Much like Nick Taylor, when you bet Vegas be prepared for an absolute flame out. Especially with the putter. In the pas 12 months Vegas has played in 17 measured events. He’s lost strokes putting in 23 of them. However in the four where he did gain, it was an average of +3.2 SG: PUTT. If you catch him on one of those weeks, then the ball striking is primed to contend at a big number.

Charley Hoffman —It’s been over 15 years since his win at PGA West, but there are a few signs pointing back to Chuck in 2025. While not an every year occurrence, he tends to roll it on these greens more successfully than most other courses. The last time we saw him contend was a year ago on another desert course in Phoenix. He was second to only JJ Spaun at Sony in ball striking. Yes, better than Nick Taylor. I’m searching for long shots, so a geezer who’s striking it well in this immediate moment with a ton of course success is a go.

UNDERDOG PGA

Put together a great run on Underdog PGA for the Sony Open, so hoping to run it back with a quick 6.29x victory Thursday. Using the link below you can tail (or fade) the entry, or if you don’t have an Underdog account yet, I’ll direct you to the site using code “MAYO” and you’ll get a FREE PICK to add to the entry to boost it to 12x and a deposit bonus up to $1000. Do that.

Dunlap gets LQ Thursday, the easiest of the courses, Berger is at NT, which is also easy, but his Par 5 scoring has been sub-par. Sub-par in relative terms, not literally on the scorecard. And Dufner hasn’t made a cut since 2023 and recently failed spectacularly trying to qualify for LIV. Maybe he has a low round in him here, or maybe he keeps playing like he’s dust.

Tail this entry here + code “MAYO” at Underdog unlocks a FREE PICK deposit bonus up to $1000

NFL DIV ROUND

A supersized edition of the Spread Picks. Geoff is sad about the Chargers humiliating loss. While Cust thinks asking for a leftover bag from an all you can eat restaurant is acceptable, not incredibly low. Overall, good times.

NFL Div Rd Spread Picks | Vrabel to NE, Coaches | Cust Corner: All You Can Eat Rules

Oh, and THE CUSTYS BALLOT IS LIVEEEE!!!!!!!!! Remember, you only get to vote once, you take your time on your selections. I’ve been having problems deciding on WORST TAKE

VOTE FOR THE 2025 CUSTY AWARDS

PLAYER PROJECTIONS

One of the four game DraftKings slate, these are currently the highest optimal rate players after 10,000 simulations.

American Express Weather

Normally, I’d link the screenshot the forecast, but it’s unnecessary this week. Sunny, no wind to speak of. A bit chilly some days in the mid-50s. If you wanna check it out, here it is…

WIND TOWER: LA QUINTA

TEE TIMES

There’s a specific rotation this week for courses. If you’re stacking for showdown book mark the link. LQ is the best to stack. NT isn’t far behind. SC is fine but provides more opportunities for blow ups than the other two.

TEE TIMES FOR ALL THREE ROUNDS BY COURSE

DRAFTKINGS PICKS

Tambo and I talked through different lineup strategies on the show Wednesday and when I put it into practice I ended up building a lot of JT/Cantlay linueps since I was so comfortable with some of the jobbers in the 6K Range.