AMEX Final Bets, Notes + NFL Div Round
Did an impromptu LIVE SHOW Wednesday afternoon where I went over my fine DraftKings thoughts, Bets, and talked through the One and Done board. Then took questions from the chat, and even opened up the phone lines. Only one person bit however. It was good fun. May keep that going in future weeks.
WATCH: AMEX Bets, One and Done, DraftKings Picks + Viewer Questions
RAKE FREE PGA PME DK LISTENER LEAGUE LINK — $15; 3-MAX
RAKE FREE PGA NFL DK LISTENER LEAGUE LINK — $15; 3-MAX
If you want more of the American Express check out the FULL breakdown I did earlier this week. And SUB to this newsletter and you’ll just get it in your inbox when it’s released.
READ: 2024 American Express Picks, Preview
American Express Bets
Sunjgae Im — I debated this one all week and finally bit the bullet with Sungjae. Missed out on a better number in the process. Someone pointed out, “who would be the player you’d be most pissed off about if the won and you didn’t bet them?” and the answer was Sungjae. After his birdie blitz at Sentry and his history at AMEX came together on the research show, he was the first one at the top of my list.
Sam Burns — Came to Burns late, but he’s a prolific enough putter to win a putting contest with a slid enough history at PGA West (T11/MC/T6/T18) that a spike irons week could get him over the top. He has a plus track record at Pete Dye courses and Small Green venues as well.
Wyndham Clark — More of a bet on talent than anything. Maybe I just got used to seeing his name along side those currently in the +2000 and I think I’m getting a deal. Previous to his triumphs at longer courses a year ago most of Clark’s career best finishes came at birdie-fests with smaller greens where it was still imperative to take advantage of Par 5s. When you factor in birdies and eagles gained at all courses over the last 24 rounds, combined with putting splits on this surface and speed, he actually rates out best in the field.
Taylor Montgomery — We got the bizarro Montgomery at the Sony Open. He crushed with his irons and merely broke even on greens. That’s two stars in a row he’s gained strokes on approach — albeit repeated by almost two months — which is the first time he’s accomplished that since the 2002 Fortinet and Sanderson Farms. The AMEX is enssenuiatllty a putting contest, so decent irons combined with his penchant for going nuclear with the putter is a perfect mix at an event which should have easier pins because of the Pro-Am format. In his past 14 events, Montgomery’s gained over six strokes putting four times, while averaging +2.6 per event over his last 20 starts.
Chris Kirk — Kirk may many have actually went back-to-back a week ago if he could have just made any putt. He gained on approach all four rounds at the Sony and gave back almost four strokes to the field on the greens. Again, we’re an event where he has solid priors, no reason to jump off now. I used my 30% boost on Kirk at 365 this week because I wanted to play the 5 Place each way with him.
Erik Van Rooyen — You worry any course with even a dip of water will become a magnet for his golf ball, however, since the new season start in the fall, there may not be anyone striking their irons better than EVR. He managed a T52 a week, even after dropping over five strokes putting to the field. Hopefully we’ll see more of a repeat of his putting stroke from this event a year ago when he gained over a stroke per round at the Stadium Course.
Nick Taylor — The number is bad and will be crushed asap. So get on it if you want it. I’d expect Taylor to close sub 75/1 after finished third in approach at Sony, gaining almost 4 strokes over the weekend.
Matti Schmid — More of a gut play tbh. Wasn’t super pumped to see a terrible week at Sony, but there were enough spikes in the fall that I’ll gamble at a course where he finished T6 in his debut a year ago. Between the PGA And DP World, Zee German reeled off five Top 5s in six starts from October through December.
FREE MONEY?????
There’s 50 people left in the DraftKings King of the Desert contest. Tambo is one of those people. The Top 15 this week advance to the finals in Phoenix. He said if he comes Top 3 he’ll give away 5% of it. It’s $500,000 to first, so 5% is no chump change. You can get ballots in the draw three ways.
Sub to this newsletter
Subscribe (and turning on Auto downloads) and rating/reviewing 5-Stars on both Apple and Spotify (One ballot for each).
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
Additionally, we’re running a promo with Ship It Nation right now for their golf package. If you sign up between now and Tuesday to any of their packages (week, month, season) using code “MAYO” (that gets you 10% off too) you’ll be put in a draw to have a season-pass given to you for free.
Code “MAYO” 10% OFF at Ship It Nation to get into PGA season-pass draw
NFL
The campaigns are now in FULL GO MODE for the Custys. Beyond that, Cust, Geoff, and I talked Fields and Tua along with all the games for NFL Div weekend.
WATCH: NFL Divisional Round Spread Picks | Custys Campaigning | Cust Corner: Intentional Incompetence
Don’t forget to vote in the Custys either. The meme war is under way.
VOTE IN THE CUSTY AWARDS
— PM