AMEX Bets, DK Own, Div RD Notes
American Express Picks
Decided last second to include Ancer on the card. I rolled with him (to very little success) last week, so I may as well stay on the train at a course where he actually plays well, me thinks.
I broke down my card and the decision making on the Wednesday short show…
Sure, he was a disappointment at the Sony a week ago but it was really a horrendous opening round that did him in. I’m not sure he’s solved his issues in round two but it was a positive sign. Couple that with his sterling track record at PGA West (T12/T10/T12) and you a have a perfect rebound spot.
Bezuidenhout will likely trail the field off the tee, but this particular style of course (short, with forced layups) is one where he likely won’t be as awful against the field as long as he continues to hit fairways. I don’t care about distance at PGA West. He’s gained with his driver just once over his past 13 measured starts, and that was at last year's RBC Heritage, coincidentally another short Pete Dye course Just let the irons and putter take over.
Here’s to hoping Woodland’s injuries are a thing of the past and he can elevate his game to elite levels again. Maybe it doesn’t happen this week, but we’re getting long enough odds to try and be early to the party.
I also went with some tournament-long fantasy props over on Prize Picks based on finishing position. I’m basically rolling the course history lineup expecting Im and Ancer to rebound like they normally do at AMEX and Henely to falter coming off the devastating playoff loss. $75 pays $375.
If you haven’t used Prize Picks before, you can get a $100 deposit match on first deposit essentially giving you a free $100 to throw down this week to get your feet wet. Just use code “MMN” on the deposit page.
Also, a Scheffler + Henley to miss the cut parlay pays +1025…
2022 AMEX CONTENT HUB
GALAXY BRAIN: Unique With Chalk
Feinberg talked on the Picks and Bets Show about fearing Jon Rahm at all times and I get it. He’s the best golfer in the world playing in a birdie fest with a handful of elite players in Europe this week. He’s going to be popular and he should be. My guy Abe Ancer (again) lines up well this week: he’s lost 5.3 strokes with the putter in his six rounds in 2022 after gaining with the flat stick in six of his final tournaments of the 2021 calendar year. Maybe the Mexican Allen Iverson falls through the cracks this week, but I kinda doubt it. That’s fine.
On Sunday’s First Look Show, I talked about the basics for this course. Many skill sets have won at this course, but with accuracy off the tee traditionally being rewarded, “Fairways Gained” has my attention on Fantasy National, so I took a look at that on short courses over the past 36 rounds. In those same perimeters, I plugged in overall proximity ranks … what good does being in the fairway do if you can’t make it count with a good birdie look? And what good is a strong proximity grade without the ability to make a few puts? Last season, 12 of the top 15 finishers in this event gained strokes putting in that 10-15 foot range and I think that makes sense if this is once again a scoring fest.
Of course, you can always weigh these stats (and many others) however you’d like at Fantasy National, but for the sake of this free newsletter, I’m just evaluating overall ranks in each of those categories (past 36 rounds on short courses: fairways gained, proximity and putting accuracy in the 10-15 foot range). If you add up their field ranking in those three categories, your top-6 in this awfully specific skill set are:
- Emiliano Grillo ($7,600)
- Doug Ghim ($7,500)
- Ryan Moore ($6,500)
- Tyler Duncan ($6,500)
- Brian Stuard ($6,600)
- Russell Knox ($7,800)
Are those sexy names? Not even close and that’s why they are all triple digits in the betting market (spoiler alert: some long shots have won this goofy, multiple course format in the past), but their DraftKings prices reflect such pessimism. Listen, I’m not suggesting these guys are lineup locks, but if you want to double dip toward the top of the board, you’re going to have to tell a very specific story to fill out your roster and this story (accurate hitters that stick it close and make mid-range putts) gives you options. Here’s one example of a lineup that could be built using this general train of thought:
Grillo: missed the cut last week, but he did gain putting and when that happens, he’s got potential
Ghim: making his season debut, but coming off of a 5th place finish here last season without any crazy statistical outliers.
Moore: He bled strokes putting before getting cut last week, but he gained everywhere else (OTT, APP and ARG).
Knox: Top-20 in 2 of his past 3 trips to this event, 1 bogey in his final 46 holes at the Sony Open
When Noonan and I discussed the “Play the Best Plays Lineup” on the DK show, this is what we cobbled together
DP WORLD TOUR — ABU DHABI
Additionally, Sky and Tom were back with their EURO Picks for Abu Dhabi. I tailed them with long shots on Hao Tong (125/1) and Guido (140/1) so I have something to root for in the morning when I wake up early.
LOCK for Abu Dhabi is 10:20pm ET on Wednesday night in case you were wondering.
Amex DraftKings Ownership Guesses
Based on the Fantasy National results, combined with the general chatter IO’ve seen about certain players I’ve gathered throughout the week, here’s who I’m guessing ends up being the chalk come Thursday Morning. LOCK is at 11:40am ET Thursday btw.
I’ve mentioned stacking La Quinta for DK Showdown purposes, and that’s what I’m doing. But watch out day one, as the majority of the best players are playing LQ, thus many of the casual players in the DK lobby will likely be on them too. Rounds 2 and 3 should provide a better edge for single-course stacks. Unless you fade LQ on Thursday, then you’ll create a ton of leverage.
NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND
Me, Cam and Rob shall return Thursday with the Best Bets. Until then, Geoff, Cust and I mix it up on each game, then have to hear Cust whine about how appetizers bully him.
NFL Gambling Notes
Bengals: 5 straight covers. This season, they’ve covered 6 road games and in those games, they won the first half AND outright 5 times (halftime/full time on DraftKings: +260)
Titans: Unders are 5-2 when the Titans play a team that qualified for the 2021 postseason.
49ers: In their past 6 games, the 49ers are 5-1 ATS and unders are 4-1-1. You can currently get the 49ers to cover with the under at +240 on DraftKings (heck, it’s +250 to take the Packers ATS with the over: there are obviously ways to lose both, but if you’re telling the story of either SF limiting possessions or the rested Packers coming out swinging … there’s a world in which betting both of those SGP’s makes sense … could get even more aggressive and take the Niners moneyline with the under at +450 if you want to chase greater payout upside)
Packers: 7-1 ATS at home this season with over tickets cashing in each of their past 3 home covers.
Rams: We haven’t had the same side of the total hit in consecutive Ram games since early November. Their blowout of the Cardinals over the weekend went over the total and the early number for their game in Tampa is 48.5 points. Maybe a fireworks spot?
Bucs: The Bucs have covered 4 straight playoff games, with under tickets coming through in 3 of them (the lone exception being a Lambeau showdown with Aaron Rodgers)
Bills: Since the beginning of last season, overs are 9-2 in Buffalo games that feature an over/under north of 50 points
Chiefs: The Chiefs were 2-5 ATS when the over/under crossed 50 points AND they were facing a non-playoff team, but 2-1 ATS against playoff teams in such scoring atmospheres.