3M Open BETS
If you think like the 3M feels like a bye, just wait until the Rocket Mortgage in seven days. Under the “specials” tab on Bet365 they’re offering Cam Davis at 50/1 to repeat next week. I bet it. I have no idea if I even like Davis next week, but based on the strength of field, he’ll like be in the 18-25 range depending on how he performs this week. If it’s not for you, I get it, thought I’d throw it out there, though.
On the 3M front, not much changed since Monday when I did the show with Geoff. I added Hardy when I saw the boost to 50, and Tambo talked me into a few FRLs, but that’s it. I decided tail a few smart people in the biz and back BIG NORRM and my guy SUH on KFT, mainly for kicks.
WATCH: 3M OPEN FINAL BETS
STEELE — The best ball striker in the field over the past three months just needs to string a few putts together this week. That’s been a tough task for him, but he’s done it enough times in his career to have three wins, so at least it’s possible.
HIGGO — The chipping has been truly brutal, but an overemphasis on short game this week means you’re simply not making enough birdies. He’s one of a few in the field with elite ball striking upside who can actually putt.
HARDY — Since returning from his wrist injury, Hardy has been relatively in the mix every week. Finished second on the KFT and has piled up five straight Top 35 finishes since.
3M CONTENT
Bets, DK Own + Chat Replay
Picks & One and Done
DraftKings Picks
Research & Preview
GALAXY BRAIN: Condensed Player Pool
In an event like the 3M this season that is, for the most part, void of high-end talent, you might be able to find success by shrinking your player pool and taking stands. Or you might not. But if you want to go that way, stat stacking is the way to go … tell a story and if you nail it, you’re printing money. So yea, more of a GPP type of week than anything cash related. Here are the eight players in this field that rank, over their past 24 rounds, as Top 20 guys in both good drives and opportunities gained in scorable conditions:
Interesting list that points to a stars and scrubs approach more than balance. If you want to use this as a player pool and build a few iterations off of it, go ahead! There’s a lineup leaving $200 on the table in which you use exclusively this list and I don’t hate it. Lets take a look at all eight of these players and see what you’re getting in terms of recent form.
Finau: Other than missing the cut at the US Open a month ago, he’s been placing well and it’s come in a well-rounded fashion. After losing strokes around the green six straight, he’s rebounded nicely and picked up strokes there in six straight (2+ strokes in four of those events).
Matsuyama: It’s been a tough go of it lately for ‘Decki, as he has placed better than 60th in just one of his past four events after a string of doing so in 10 consecutive events. That said, he’s gained in Opportunities in every measured event this season and that should put him in a spot to play meaningful Sunday golf this week.
Tringale: He has certainly flashed at times over the past month, but he needs to put together four rounds. The long iron game has been strong for much of 2022, potentially giving him the confidence to excel on the toughest holes this week and gain strokes on the field.
Laird: Party Marty’s tee-to-green game has been solid this summer and considering he was +8.9 strokes in 2019 at the 3M, a strong week in that regard is reasonable to assume. How lucky do you feel with the flat stick?
Huh: The man of many questions has had no answers of late, but he’s the type that makes a GPP lineup … since Wells Fargo, he’s either been top-25 OR completely missed the cut in seven straight. He’s not for the faint of heart, but he is 20th in this field in putting from 10-15 feet over his past 24 rounds in scoring conditions, so maybe he pays off the opportunities he is so good at generating.
Buckley: Following four straight missed cuts, Buckley has played the weekend in four straight and that’s without doing a damn thing on or around the greens. The off-the-tee game has been solid all season long and at this price tag, that might be enough to make him worth a look. If he doesn’t bleed strokes close to the hole, he’s paying off $7,100 easy.
Kodaira: My guy posted his fifth best approach week of his career at the Barbasol, but he’s had no success at the 3M. Could that change? He’s +8.1 strokes over his past two events tee-to-green, a sign that he may be out of the near five month funk that saw him lose over 1.7 strokes tee-to-green per event.
Taylor: He hasn’t lost strokes on approach since missing the cut at Valspar and he’s gained Good Drives in seven of his past eight. Any player priced like this carries significant risk, but those are two trends that could result in the salary savings being worth the downside.
WEATHER
Not sure what this weather means tbh. Although the constant wind looks low in the AM Thursday, the gusts seem to be the same all day. My three FRLs are all am to try and see if it’s an advantage.
WIND TOWER: Anoka County Airport
In the terms of pure waver stack on DraftKings, most of my player pool was randomly AM/PM anyway, so I ended up with a few full stacks that way, so I counter balanced with some exclusive PM/AM because I wanted Finau to anchor those lineups.
DRAFTKINGS OWNERSHIP (*guesses)
Everyone’s playing the same guys this week. I suggest you go out on a limp and try something slightly off the beaten path. Although the projection is high on Hadwin, my guy (which is expanded to new levels these days. Fucking Kids.), I think he’ll get squeezed and come in lower than expected. But I build most of my lineups with Finau/Hideki starts (with a dash of Hadwin) then figured I could doo whatever else I wanted to down the pricing. With that start your simply can’t get to the most popular combinations this week.
WATCH: DraftKings Ownership & Pivot Plays
Riley
Svennson
Theegala
Finau
Cam Davis
Steele
Hardy
McNealy
Gotterup
Hardy
Tom Kim
— PM