MAJOR SEASON ONE AND DONE
There’s a NEWWWWWW One and Done starting at The Masters — $100 to join; $10K to first place. It ends at the Open Championship in July. You can have multiple entries, SOOOOOO, go get one now!!!!
PLAY: MAJOR SEASON ONE AND DONE (Starts at Masters)
I’m giving away some offical MASTERS SWAG.
And all you need to do is leave one of those 5-Star reviews for the podcast. We NEED those reviews, THANKS
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
Here’s the gear you can win…
Masters BETS
Will Z 40/1
Adam Scott 70/1
Si WOOOOOO Kim 100/1 (with Top 8 each way)
Tiger Woods +120 to Make The Cut
FUTURES
Robert MacIntrye 110 (with Top 5 each way)
Thomas Pieters 125/1 (with Top 5 each way)
WILL ADD Collin Morikawa (Waiting for Number to Grow)
The shine is off. Historically, that’s the time to pounce on the winner of two of the past eight Majors. Separating any of the top end players this week is nary impossible, but it’s important to assess upside, not necessary the mean performance. Morikawa is one of the most volatile of top end stars, but he;’s upside performance is exactly what Augusta craves: Capable driving, streaky putting, and elite irons. Frankly, as he’s one of least popular bets this week, the longer you wait to place the wager, likely the better odds you’re going to get.
Adam Scott 70/1
The former Masters champ has spoke at length about peaking for the Majors, and his stats certainly look like he wasn’t lying. He’s rectified all the issues he’s had over the years with his putter, now ranking inside the Top 5 in the field for the season in this field. The irons are always solid, so it comes down to his driving and chipping. The driving is a coin flip at this point: Great or awful, there’s been very little in between. And the chipping is usually terrible. Yet it hasn’t been at Augusta over the years. Keep that in check, do the usual, contend for a second Green Jacket.
Will Zalatoris 40/1
Runner up in his debut a year ago, and now situated as the wedge player on the odds board between the favorites and next tier of players. Yes, I think he’s good enough to win, but the Top 10 odds are just a better value. And for anyone worried about his putting woes, just check out what he did on the greens 12 months ago.
Tiger Woods to Make The Cut +120
Tiger isn’t teeing off to shoot an 80. If he’s in the field, he’s there to compete. And considering he’s never missed a Masters cut as a pro, the plus money is very appealing.
In yesterday’s newsletter, I made a case for Spieth to win as an exercise with the idea that I’d never bet it. 24 hours later, I keep thinking about it, and it’s kind of tempting seeing as high as 25/1 right now. No need to make any final decisions right now, but I know I’m going with another top name so he’s going on the short list with Brooks and Rory for the moment.
For a full breakdown of the field and bets, Fienberg and I talked it through today. Along the way, you hear Cust’s three most ANDERCURSED golfers. Plus you get to hear the three players who “have no chance.”
WATCH: MASTERS PICKS AND BETS
But it was incredibly cool that Adam Schefter wanted to come on the show and talk golf with us. Turns out Schefter’s a massive golf fan, and, in a very relatable moment, sweats his picks the same way as all of us. ONE OF US!!!! He even talked about how he had $10 on Corey Conners which led him to watch all of his shots at Valero. It’s a good lesson for everyone who probably bets wayyyyy too much money on this stuff (myself included), Adam Schefter, likely millionaire, can chuck $10 on a golf bet and that’s enough for him to start sweating the outcome. Don’t let anyone ever tell you how much you NEED to bet on anything. Bet what makes you comfortable and will deliver that sweat on Sunday.
MASTERS CONTENT
Research Show w/ Justin Ray
DK Milly Maker Picks w/ Rasa and Tambo
Bets + Picks w/ Fienberg, Cust + Adam Schefter
Tournament Write Up
Player by Player Breakdown w/ Rick Gahmen (Tuesday)
Final Bets, Ownership + Viewer Chat LIVE WED 12pm ET
Cut Sweat LIVE (Friday)
INJURIES
Tiger Woods — Looks like he’s gonna play.
Bryson DeChambeau — Admitted to only being 80% on Monday
Hideki, Casey, Ancer — No Changes.
MASTERS WINNER MIRROR PLAYERS
Today we will take a look at profile matches and Wednesday’s final newsletter will offer the goods: who fits a similar profile to the guys that have traditionally dominated Augusta. So make sure you’re a good friend and get as many people to SUBSCRIBE to this weekly email as possible … we want as many people cashing this week as possible!
Profile fit (again, excluding the November version of this event)
2021: Hideki Matsuyama
- Birthday: February 25
- 2 previous finishes featured a MC and a finish outside the top-25
- Birdies Gained PG Tour Rank final 50 rounds of season prior: 23rd
o 2022: Abe Ancer
§ Birthday: February 27
§ 2 previous finishes featured a MC and a finish outside the top-25
§ Birdies Gained PG Tour Rank final 50 rounds of season prior: 21st
2019: Tiger Woods
- Birthday: Dec 30
- Height: 6-1
- Previous results: Top-25 in 4 of his previous 5, but no wins
- GIRs gained for that season: T-7th
o 2022: Jon Rahm
§ Height: 6-2
§ Previous results: Top-25 in 4 of his previous 5, but no wins
§ GIRs gained for that season: 1st
2018: Patrick Reed
- Season prior: Made over 75% of cuts, 0 wins
- Previous Results: MC (Honda), average finish at the next three events: 15th
- SG: SG for the season 12th (SG: ARG: 1st)
o 2022: Tommy Fleetwood
§ Season prior: Made over 75% of cuts, 0 wins
§ Previous Results: MC (Honda), average finish at next three events: 19th
§ SG: SG for the season 15th (SG: ARG: 8th)
2017: Sergio Garcia
- Birthday: Jan 9
- Height: 5-10
- Weight: 160
- Previous Results: Top-15 in 3 of 4 lead in tournaments
- Good Drives gain for that season: 11th
o 2022: Viktor Hovland
§ Height: 5-10
§ Weight: 165
§ Previous Results: Top-15 in 3 of 4 lead in tournaments
§ Good Drives gain for that season: 14th
2016: Danny Willett
- Birthday: Oct 3
- Height: 5-11
- Weight: 183
- Average finish in his three previous tournaments: 9th
- SG: Par 3 for the season: 35th
o 2022: Shane Lowry
§ Born abroad
§ Average finish in his three previous tournaments: 9th
§ SG: Par 3 for the season: 21st
F1
Also, at Run The Sims, we’ve developed projections based off race simulations. I don’t really know exactly how that’s done (not my scene) but so far they’ve been amazingly profitable.
My co-founder at the site, the one who creates the projections, has alreayd cashed in on DraftKings with the F1 projections….
JOIN: RUN THE SIMS FOR FREE F1 PROJECTIONS
and the best part… ALL F1 projections are FREEEEE at Run The Sims right now. Just sign up for a FREE ACCOUNT and they’re all yours. I believe they gte poplated after qualification.
STATS
I ran my numbers over the past 24 rounds and, no, I don’t like what they’re telling me vs what I want to do this week. Remember, you can build your own key stat rankings very easily on Fantasy National.
TOOLS: 20% Off Fantasy National Tools & Stats
DRAFTKINGS
It’s early in the week, but I’m gonna do some speculation on the DK Milly Maker ownership. I’ll keep updating it very night, and Tambo and I will talk it through on Wednesday’s LIVE show (12pm ET on MMN), but here’s what I’m thinking right now.
WATCH: DK Milly Maker Picks w/ Rasa and Tambo
Cameron Smith
Justin Thomas
Corey Conners
Russell Henley
Jon Rahm
Matt Fitzpatrick
Brooks Koepka
I was iffy on Fitz, but I ran multiple optimizers and he kept showing up, so there’s more interest there than is being shown publicly.
TOMORROW, me and Rick go player by player with our pros and cons.
See ya then
— PM