2025 WM Phoenix Open Picks, Bets, Course Preview
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WM Phoenix Open
Theegala 35 (No Scheffler Market)
Taylor +6500
Akshay +6500
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C. Hoffman +10000 (With 8 Places)
N. Hojgaard +10000 (With 8 Places)
Dunlap +12500 (With 8 Places)
CT Pan +15000 (With 8 Places)
Hoey +20000 (With 8 Places)
LIV Golf Riyadh
Louis O. +2600
Burmester +3600
McKibbin +6500
Qatar Masters
Joe Dean (The Birdie Machine) +6600 (With 5 Places)
Tapio Pulkkanen +20000
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2025 WM Phoenix Open
Field
Field: 132 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Lineup Lock: Thursday, February 6
Defending Champ: Nick Taylor
It was cool to see the TOUR reward Phoenix elevating it to a signature event in 2023, getting all the world’s best (at least players on the PGA TOUR) to stage a People’s Open with all the stars. It was unnecessary, though. The Waste Management Open doesn’t need that tag, though. The tournament and venue (and crowds) itself are the stars, and enough big names wouldn’t dare take a pass regardless of status. It makes far more sense to get the most notable to play at Pebble Beach to resurrect that event.
While I normally criticize the TOUR’s decision making, this is one they actually got right. Whether it works for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is to be seen, but the attempt is a positive development. That tournament was dying on the vine due to lack of commitments and placement on the schedule. Placing the biggest stars available at on the of the country’s most iconic courses is a simple, logic based decision; that’s not usually the TOUR’s wheelhouse however. So, nice work for being somewhat reasonable. This is the barometer for praise in 2025.
Without elevated status, Phoenix still has an excellent field. Scottie Scheffler is playing for the second consecutive week following his return from a hand injury. Ditto for Jordan Spieth. They’re joined in the desert by Two-Time (TWO-TIME) WMPO winner Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Max Greyserman, Robert MacIntyre, Min WOO Lee, Sepp Straka, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sahith Theegala, Rickie Fowler, Si WOO Kim, Brian Harman, May McNealy, both Hojgaards, other good euros, and Max Homa. Amateur Luke Clanton once again gets a chance to earn his full time PGA TOUR Card and turn pro with a Top 5 finish. Solid crew.
Xander Schauffele (ribs) has been cleared to practice (following what I’m guessing was Marilyn Manson surgery?), but will NOT be making his usual Phoenix cameo. Ludvig Aberg is sitting out as well after his WD at Pebble Beach. Apparently he still had the shits. Max Greyserman withdrew from Pebble Beach over the weekend with a hand injury yet currently remains in the field for Phoenix.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
Eagles Gained
Opportunities Gained
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
Course
TPC Scottsdale
Yardage: 7,261
Par: 71
Greens: Poa Overseed
Average Green Size: 7,069 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 67
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 6
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 189 yards
Two of the four most difficult holes on property are Par 3's (Holes 7 and 12)
Four of the five highest par rates ... Nick Taylor was -21 during his win here last season and even he played the Par 3's on the front-9 at even par (one bogey and one birdie)
Par 4's (11): Average distance - 440 yards
Two of the three most difficult holes on the course are Par 4's on the back 9 (Holes 11 and 14)
The three shortest Par 4's (1-10-17) are all of the six easiest holes while the four longest (5-8-11-14) are all among the eight toughest. Shocker.
Nick Taylor had no issues with the Par 4's on the back-9 (seven birdies and no bogeys), but two of his three bogeys for the week came on Par 4's.
Par 5's (3): Average distance - 557 yards
Three of the four easiest holes on the course, all carrying an eagle rate of at least 2.4% (Hole 15 carried some swing potential with the water guarding the green — 2.5% double-or-worse rate)
Taylor birdied three of his final Par 5's for the week last year after failing to score under par on each of his previous four Par 5’s)
Par 5's are always meaningful, but Scheffler did lose 2.1 strokes on them in 2023 during his win
DFS Streak
Going back-to-front is going to offer a slight edge in Single Round Showdown. It's not worth prioritizing, but in playing this course out of order, you get access to two of the six easiest holes (Holes 17 and 1) to try and build a streak. The Par 5's aren't going to impact your search for streaks in this regard and that is why I'm not not going out of my way to build based on order.
Past Winners
2024: Nick Taylor -21
2023: Scottie Scheffler -19
2022: Scottie Scheffler -16
2021: Brooks Koepka -19
2020: Webb Simpson -17
2019: Rickie Fowler -17
2018: Gary Woodland -18
2017: Hideki Matsuyama -17
2016: Hideki Matsuyama -14
2015: Brooks Koepka -15
2024: Nick Taylor (+12500)
Taylor and Charley Hoffman finished 1-2 on the final leaderboard and were 1-2 with the putter (Taylor +8.9 and Hoffman +7.2)
Of the top-11 on the final leaderboard, all gained strokes putting (8 gained 3+ strokes) while only five gained ARG
2023: Scottie Scheffler (+1200)
12 of the top 13 finishers for the week gained in Prox 150-175 yards (Scheffler was the best in the field)
15 of the top-19 finishers on the final leaderboard gained distance off the tee
Scheffler matched Nick Taylor with a 65 on Sunday (second best round of the day). He was better than Taylor just once in four rounds (fired a 64 on Friday)
Scheffler led the field in Prox: 150-175, a distance range that all top 9 finishers gained
2022: Scottie Scheffler (+2500)
Scheffler and Martin Laird (T-14) were the only top-20 finishers to lose strokes in approach for the week (Scheffler was the second best putter for the week: +6.5 strokes)
His 62 on Saturday was 2 strokes better than any other round for any other golfer during the tournament (that as the only round in which he topped Cantlay)
Eight of the top-9 finishers gained ground putting from 20-25 feet (Alex Noren was the lone exception and he was the seventh best putter from 25+ feet for the week)
Of the nine that gained 5+ strokes with the flat stick, six cashed top 10 checks
2021: Brooks Koepka (+4000)
68 or better in every round (65 on Sunday -- three better than KH Lee and six better than Xander Schauffele, the two who finished as runner ups)
Six of the top-12 finishers lost strokes off the tee for the week (Jordan Spieth finished T-4 despite being the sixth worst off the tee)
Entered Sunday 5 back of Jordan Spieth/Xander Schauffele, shot his best round of the week (65) while the other had their worst (Spieth was 11 shots worse on Sunday than Saturday)
Each of the top 10 finishers gained Good Drives on the field (five of them lost distance)
2020: Webb Simpson (+1400)
Was 12 behind Wyndham Clark after Thursday before going 63-64 over the next two days
13 of the top-15 finishers gained multiple strokes putting.
22 of the top 24 finishers gained strokes on Par 3's (that was what kept Finau in it -- he gained 4 more strokes on Par 3's than Simpson).
2019: Rickie Fowler (+1800)
Fowler was a Round 1 leader (64, bogey free) and fired the third best Round 2 (65), allowing him to overcome a 74 on Sunday (double bogey on #5, triple bogey on #11)
Fowler posted the best putting performance of his career (+9.5), but putting wasn't otherwise predictive (only four of the top 16 putters for the week finished inside the top 20)
FIRST ROUND LEADERS
2024
60 - Nick Taylor (his best round by five strokes, posted birdie streaks on both 9's)
65 - Sahith Theegala (9 strokes better in the first two days than the weekend), Mav McNealy (his best round of the week), Andrew Novak (consecutive 65's to open before 69-72 over the weekend), and Doug Ghim (his only round better than 68)
2023
65 - Jason Day (his only round better than 68 for the week)
66 - Nick Taylor (first of four rounds in the 60's, closed with a 65), Adam Hadwin (10 shots better pre-cut than over the weekend), Scott Stallings (seven shots worse on Friday)
2022
65 - KH Lee (his only round in the 60's for the week)
66 - Brooks Koepka (in the 60's for all four rounds), Sahith Theegala (nine strokes better through two rounds than the rest of the way), Adam Hadwin (68 or better in Rounds 1-3 before struggling with a Sunday 74), Harry Higgs (took himself out of contention with a 72-76 over his next two rounds)
NOTES
11 players who have hoisted novelty checks in Phoenix have also won THE PLAYERS Championship. Scottie Scheffler joined that list with his win at TPC Sawgrass two years ago. (It’s actually 12 if, like Cust, you count Hideki in 2020 as a win).
I was trying to look between the courses and figure out why that may be the case, and outside of both being TPC course and having a series of very difficult long Par 4s, it’s kind of a mystery to me. Not a complete mystery, mind you; it’s just, when you think Sawgrass, my first thought goes to Wyndham Championship and a rota of short Bermuda courses (Sony, Heritages, etc). But those crossovers don’t seem to work at all. TPC Craig Ranch, another Tom Weiskopf course, is another angle to research.
Here are the per round SG leaders from TPC Craig Ranch in the field this week
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Stats that have correlated to finishing position in the past five years, beyond the traditional Strokes Gained metrics, have been Par 5s Gained/Eagles Gained and Par 4s Gained between 450-500 yards. There are five holes here from that distance, three of which are the most difficult on the course.
Like most weeks, approach and putting matter the most of any stats, but TPC Scottsdale provides a much flatter distribution for each of the individual Tee-To-Green metrics than most events. We get tournaments where the approach can be worth as much as four times the value of driving and chipping, but not this week.
Maybe that’s the key. The complete game. Because a second glance at the past winners shows two a very obvious correlations:
1. Name brand players win in Phoenix.
2. Most winners are US Open winners or consistent high end finishers.
Brooks, Webb, and Woodland are all former US Champs while two-time Phoenix winner Scotty Scheffler had consecutive Top 3 US Open finishes before last year.. Hideki has a pair of Top 4 US Open finishes along with a T6 a year ago and Rickie’s has three finishes inside the Top 5. Nick Taylor blows that all up however. But he is from the Si WOO school of WIN or MC.
It’s possible, the attack strategy is the key, despite playing about 400 yards shorter than the South Course at Torrey Pines, expect most of the field to attack with drivers off the tee with more than 61% of all drives going over 300 yards. There’s an elevation component to that as well, clearly.
(Stats from 2023 Season btw)
All three Par 5s are reachable in two, but No. 15 tends to be a magnet for the water. Much like its aqua brethren, No. 18 at TPC Twin Cities, you must carry the hazard to reach it in two. 70+ balls typically find themselves nestled at the bottom of the lake during the tournament. Despite there only being three Par 5s, they combined for the fifth-best score to par overall when going for the green (-572) in 2020. Overall, TPC Scottsdale annually sits inside the Top 5 courses with the most water ball in the neighbourhood of 225+.
You know, maybe all the water and being good at avoiding it is the link between Scottsdales and Sawgrass?
Beyond the Par 5s, the drivable par 4 17th is the other spot on the course to gain back significant strokes on the field. Just 332 yards, every player can take a crack at the green from the tee box, but with water looming off the left side, both eagle and bogey are in play depending on the drive. Originally, I assumed it was an ultimate risk/reward proposition, but, players have made par 40% of the time on No. 17 after they go into the water. Considering the field makes birdie over 38% of the time and eagle more than 1% of the time, there’s little incentive to lay up. In 2020, 51 balls found the water off the tee, while 63 landed on the green.
No. 17 is also the hole that features the most putts from over 80 feet. There have been over 220 putts from 80 feet or beyond on this green and almost half have resulted in a three-putt or worse (49.3%).
The GCSAA have finally changed the green type from “TifEagle Bermuda over-seeded with velvet bentgrass, Poa trivialis and perennial ryegrass .100.” to a much more simple, “Poa overseed.” These greens are historically firm and run faster than the average TOUR event, which has helped out the poorer putters as shorter putts have become easier in these conditions. In 2020, the field made 89% of putts inside of 10 feet while players have made around 17% of their putts between 15-25 feet, making it annually one of the five easiest courses from that range. The greens at Scottsdale are an outlier in this part of the schedule featuring the infuriating putting surfaces of Torrey, Pebble and RIV which are synonymous with short misses.
Since 2000, ten 54-hole leaders have gone on to convert the victory on Sunday, and only three since 2009 — Phil in 2013, Fowler in 2019, and Scheffler in 2023, and Nick Taylor a year ago.
Johnny Miller (1974 and 1975), Matsuyama (2016 and 2017), Scheffler (2022/2023) are the only back-to-back winners in Phoenix, while Arnold Palmer, Phil Mickelson, Gene Littler and Mark Calcavecchia are the only three-time winners of this event. There have been multiple repeat winners since 2000: Mickelson, Matsuyama, Koepka, Scheffler and JB Holmes have each won twice.
This event has gone to a playoff in six of the past nine years with the widest winning margin only being two strokes.
All-time, 10 players have won in their first appearance at TPC Scottsdale dating back to 1932. Koepka (2015), Stanley (2012) and Holmes (2005) are the only players to accomplish that feat this millennium.
Scrambling and GIRs are higher than the TOUR average while hitting fairways is slightly below most courses (59 percent to 62 percent average). As reflected in the GIR rate, the rough isn’t very penalizing, although there isn’t much of it. Once you veer too far from the short grass, you’re in the desert. There are 67 sand traps littered across the course with water in play on six holes. There’s also an abundance of cacti littered across the sand. Ask Spencer Levin.
Of the players in the field Scheffler, Thomas, Hideki, Theegala, and Nick Taylor have gained the most total strokes over the last five years.
The cut line has been under par the past three of the past four years after seven years of an Even or above par cutline.
Picks
Sahith Theegala — Granted, the game has been mediocre to commence 2025, but this is a happy place for Sahith. With Two Top 5 finishes the last three years, he’s trending to win in Phoenix sometime soon, why not this year?
Charley Hoffman — Charley got himself into the Sunday final group a few weeks back. Didn’t work out. He followed that up with a T25 at the Farmer a week later. Both times he was let down by a frigid flat stick. But his ball striking has been excellent, even dating back to the beginning of the swing season. He lost in a playoff a year ago here to Nick Taylor and has actually gained on these greens five of the past six years. If he gains again with the putter this time around and matches it with the rest of his consistent play, you may have yourself a Sunday runner beyond triple digits on the betting board once again.