2025 Valero Texas Open Picks, Bets, Course Preview
+ $5K TRIP GIVEAWAY
QUICK BETS
Keegan (Waiting to see if it get above +2500)
Berger +4500
Tom Kim +4500
Hoge +9000
LIV DORAL
Byrson +1400
Bermester +1900
VALERO TEXAS OPEN FIELD
156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make the Cut
First Tee: Thursday, April 3
Defending Champion: Akshay Bhatia
Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, Patrick Cantlay, Mav McNealy, Akshay Bhatia, Corey Conners, Tom Kim, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Denny McCarthy, and Jordan Spieth populate the top end of the field in the penultimate event before The Masters next week. Only one Augusta invitation remains open: Anyone currently not in the field for The Masters must win this week to get in. Simple.
Last year, Akshay and Denny were both nine strokes clear of third place in 2024 (-20 to Rory at -11) and went to the first playoff since the Valero Texas Open moved to to TPC San Antonio in 2010. They both tied the lowest score to par in event history along with Corey Conners in 2019.
HOT LINKS
Valero Texas Open Picks, Bets, One and Done | Houston Open Recap
Valero Texas Open Picks, Research, Course Preview, + Underdog Majors Draft & Review
PGA Major-Only Underdog Draft Strategy & Which Players are in Which Majors
$5K Trip to Toronto for PME LIVE, Canadian Open & Blue Jays
KEY STATS
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Opportunities Gained
Good Drives Gained
Par 5s Gained
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
COURSE
Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks)
Yardage: 7,438
Par: 72
Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed
Average Green Size: 6,400 sq. ft
Number of Sand Bunkers: 64
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 3
Average Fairway Widths: 25-30 yards
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 201 yards
They all play over par with #13 being the toughest of the bunch (22.2% bogey rate)
Hole 13 measures 241 yards (fifth toughest on the course) and boosts this average.
Bhatia played the par 3's at even par last year (one birdie and one bogey)
Par 4's (10): Average distance - 429 yards
Three of the four toughest holes on this course are Par 4's on the front nine (1-4-9), all of whom have an over-par rate north of 29%
Bhatia didn't bogey any hole twice over the course over his four rounds, but four of his five bogeys for the week did come on Par 4’s
The two shortest Par 4s carry a birdie rate north of 23% (one of which is Hole 17 which also has a bogey rate of just 8.5% … all reward, little risk)
Par 5's (4): Average distance - 588 yards
These are most of the easier holes on property, but three own a bogey rate over 11% and a sub-30% birdie rate. The one you have to get is #14 (2.1% eagle rate, the other three all have a sub-1% rate)
There were more eagles on Hole 14 in 2023 than on the other three Par 5s combined, so that is your must score hole. Hole 8 is over 600 yards and could be a difference maker: 20.4% birdie rate and 15.6% bogey rate.
Bhatia had 10 birdies on the Par 5's for the week (he got 2-14-18 three times apiece)
DFS Streak
The Front Nine is bookended by two of the three toughest holes on the course and that naturally makes any streak stringing together the 9's difficult. If you're breaking ties this way, back-to-front would be my play because of how easy the back wraps (holes 17-18 both have an under par rate north of 26%) and with a Par 5 waiting on #2, but that 10.5% birdie rate on #1 makes this a speculative angle, not one I'm going out of my way to target.
PME $5K TRIP GIVEAWAY/PRINTABLE MASTERS POOL
I teased this last week, but it’s NOW OFFICIAL!!!! Working with Coolbet, they’ve set up an all expenses paid trip to Toronto this summer. Now, it’s only available for people who can actually use Coolbet, which are Canadians outside of Ontario. (Also available in Northern Europe and parts South America too). This is big initiative for me and them, so your support on this is massive for me. So, make and account and OPT-IN and try to win that giveaway. For every $10 you bet on Valero, Masters & Heritage, you’ll get a ballot into the draw.
And if this goes really well we may have some larger giveaways coming later this summer for bigger trips. I enourage you to pass the link around to your friends who like to bet. The more peopole the bigger the next giveaway.
Now, for you good people outside the Coolbet area, I’ve create a free downloadable Masters Pool sheet on that page at the bottom if you want to get one going with your friends or run an office pool. I’ve always loved those and find them difficult to find. So, that’s there too.
ENTER THE PME GIVEAWAY HERE
PAST WINNERS
2024: Akshay Bhatia -20
2023: Corey Conners -15
2022: JJ Spaun -13
2021: Jordan Spieth -18
2019: Corey Conners -20
2018: Andrew Landry -17
2017: Kevin Chappell -12
2016: Charley Hoffman -12
2015: Jimmy Walker -11
2024: Akshay Bhatia (+6600)
- Three of the Top 4 finishers (and five of the top-9) lost ground putting from 20-25 feet AND 25+ feet.
- Bhatia was the best in the field in SG:APP. Henley was second best in SG:APP and finished fourth for the week, McIlroy was third best in SG:APP and finished third for the week, McCarthy was seventh best in SG:APP and finished second for the week.
2023: Corey Conners (+2500)
- Five of the top-9 finishers lost ground off the tee
- The final leaderboard was Conners-Stevens-Kuchar-Ryder. The final SG:APP leaderboard was Conners-Stevens-Kuchar-Ryder
2022: J.J. Spaun (+15000)
- 11 of the top-12 finishers gained strokes putting from 10-15 feet (the top-3 finishers were all a negative putting from 20-25 feet)
- 7 of the top-12 finishers gained ground both ARG and P for the week
2021: Jordan Spieth (+1200)
- 10 of the top 11 finishers gained strokes putting (Spieth, Chris Kirk, and Anirban Lahiri were all top-6 putters for the week and parlayed it into top-6 finishes on the final leaderboard)
- 14 of the top 16 finishers gained Pro 175-200 (Spieth won despite losing ground on the field in the 125-150, 150-175, and 200+ buckets)
2019: Corey Conners -20 (+25000)
- Conners was the only player to card four rounds in the 60's (his 66 on Sunday was his best of the week and T-3rd best on the course that day)
-Conners was the best in SG:APP by 3 strokes (allowed him to overcome -1.5 strokes ARG)
2018: Andrew Landry -17 (+17500)
- Landry was the only player to card four rounds in the 60's (he was five better than Mullinax and three better than O'Hair on Thursday)
-Cash in close ... the top five finishers all gained strokes putting from 5-10 AND from 10-15 feet (Landry won this event despite losing SG:P from 15-20 feet, 20-25 feet, and 25+ feet)
2017: Kevin Chappell (+2500)
Avoided the bad round (71 was his worst, five of the eight closest to Chappell carded a 73 or worse)
Seven of the top nine in terms of GIRs earned top-10 paychecks (Chappell and Koepka were two of the three best for the week in the category)
FIRST ROUND LEADERS
2024
63 - Akshay Bhatia** (his best round by four strokes and seven shots better than his Friday)
66 - Brandon Todd (his only round for the week in the 60's) and Justin Lower (his only round for the week in the 60's, fired a 77 on Friday)
2023
64 - Corey Conners** (his best round by four strokes and eight shots better than his Friday)
66 - Patrick Rodgers (11 strokes better pre-cut than post-cut)
2022
65 - Russell Knox (his only round in the 60's, 11 shots worse on Friday)
66 - Rasmus Hojgaard (followed the hot start with 73-74 on Friday-Saturday)
2021
64 - Camilo Villegas (his only round in the 60's, 12 shots worse on Friday)
66 - Cameron Tringale (10 shots better pre-cut than post-cut) and Sung Kang (72 or worse in each of the next three rounds)
NOTES
TPC San Antonio Oaks Course was designed by Greg Norman in consultation with Sergio Garcia and has been host to this event since 2010.
Since 2010, the front nine has played significantly more difficult. From 2010-2018, the field played the front nine +3,704 compared to just +730 on the back nine. In that same span, this event had more triple bogeys or worse (289) than all other courses except for TPC Sawgrass (338) and PGA National (323). That’s saying a lot considering TPC San Antonio only has three water hazards.
TPC San Antonio annually has the toughest greens to hit in regulation on the PGA TOUR (58%), along with Riviera CC, Harbour Town GL and TPC Southwind.
If you don’t know by now, Strokes Gained: Approach is the most influential stat at any course. It’s not necessarily predictive, insomuch that like anything in golf, a player can have a great approach one week and then completely lose it the next. Usually, SG: APP massively outweighs both SG: Off The Tee and SG: Around the Green by a large margin when looking back to see how the top finishers actually got to the top of the leaderboard. However, TPC San Antonio is one of the courses where driving inches closer to overall importance. Now, driving isn’t quite as big of a factor as approaches, but it’s more than half SG:APP which is much less than a lot of courses. Long and straight is what you want off the tee, but it turns out everyone isn’t Scottie Scheffler. Only 56% of drives find the shortgrass which is below the PGA TOUR average (62%).
If players are going to miss the fairway regardless, they may as well hit it as far as possible. With that extra distance, players can cut down on the number of long irons throughout the week and you won’t end up in the forest and make a 16 like Kevin Na. Just avoid the OB.
Yes, wind can play a major factor on this exposed course. The gusts at the 2015 event were the most impactful ever seen from an a.m./p.m. split perspective. That year, the morning wave had a scoring average of 78.61, almost four strokes worse than the afternoon wave (74.86). It caused seven players to withdraw over the first two rounds. That one round still has DraftKings players sweating the weather every week. Outside of an insane British Open weather swing, it’s doubtful we’ll ever see wind affect one side of the draw so impactful ever again. Don’t sweat it too much, but it’s worth taking a gander at the weather report before making any final decisions.
WIND TOWER: San Antonio International Airport
The cut line has not been under par any year the Valero has been contested at TPC San Antonio. At the wind-infused 2015 event, it was +7. It has been +2 and +1 the past two years.
There are 64 bunkers littered across the course, three of the four Par 3s are AT LEAST 207 yards, plus distance will assist in fostering birdies on the monstrous par 5s – three of the four par 5s are 591 yards or longer, taking more eagle chances out of play, and another that falls just under the 600-yard barrier.
The Par 4 No. 17 is drivable for a lot of the field although very few players actually make eagle (31% Birdie rate; 0.7% Eagle Rate). It plays as the second easiest hole annually.
Five of the past nine winners made the Valero Texas Open their first PGA TOUR victory: Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, Kevin Chappell, JJ Spaun and Steven Bowditch.
Since play began at the Oaks Course in 2010, the third-round leader/co-leader has gone on to win nine times.
PICKS
Keegan Bradley — The Ryder Cup Captain enters with solid form, especially in the ball striking department, and has temporarily fixed his putter since the West Coast swing. He posted a Top 10 here a year ago, along with a T2 at Colonial last season so his Texas form is on point too.
Daniel Berger — The numbers may be better than his actually results but Berger’s consistency has been fantastic since Phoenix posting five consecutive Top 25s. His short game and GIRs have been immaculate, he just needs to get his driver and irons clicking at the same time. THEN, he can vault back into the winners circle for the first time since 2021, and he does have a Texas win at Colonial to boot. Plus, under the exclusive tab, my good friends at Coolbet boosted him up to +4000 for everyone to enjoy.
Tom Kim — This has the potential to be awful if TK continues to putt like he’s looking at a different hole, but the iron play has been undeniably good. More so from the key wedge ranges. It also helps we’ve seen a lot of historically awful putters pick up wins in San Antonio.