2025 PGA Championship Picks, Bets, Course Preview
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP QUICK BETS
Bryson DeChambeau +1600
Dean Burmester +15000 (8 Places)
FUTURES
Hatton +5000
Hideki +5000
2025 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
Field: 156 Players
Cut: Top 70 & Ties
First Tee Time: Thursday, May 15
Defending Champion: Xander Schauffele
While it’s full field of 156 Players, it’s actually closer to The Masters than the US or The Open in difficultly to make the cut. It’s the only tournament of the year where the Top 70 and Ties will play the weekend (most events are Top 65 and Ties; and yes, it can be a YUGE difference), but, like at Augusta, it’s the bottom part of the field that actually makes this field smaller than it seems. There are 20 PGA Professionals on the tee sheet, a handful of old, past champions, and about 10-15 players at the bottom of the odds board I had to search to make sure they weren’t just create-a-players. Of this group of 40, maybe five will make the cut.
So, if we take out those 35 names as dead to see the weekend, we get left with around 120 names, and since it’s Top 70 and ties, let’s guess 75 players make the cut. That means over 62% of the real field will play all four arounds. At the US Open it’s around 40%.
Also, on DraftKings, Michael Block is more expensive than Phil Mickelson. Which is outrageous and hilarious.
A few injuries to note heading into Quail Hollow. Jason Day pulled out before the start of the Truist with a herniated disc in his neck. He’s attempting to play this week but the combination of “neck”, “herniated disc” and “Jason Day” doesn’t sound promising. Justin Rose, Michael Kim , And Sahith Theegala all WD’d during the Truist. Rose was sick and is expected to be OK. Kim (Back) and Theegala (Neck) are also likely to play but far more in doubt than Rose right now.
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KEY STATS
Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Proximity Gained 200+ Yards
Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
COURSE
Course: Quail Hollow
Yardage: 7,626
Par: 71
Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed .125” (all base turf is bermudagrass)
Average Green Size: 6,600 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 61
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 7
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 207 yards
-Hole 17 can be a deal breaker: 2nd toughest on the course and the owner of an 8% double+ rate (easily the highest)
Par 4's (11): Average distance - 456 yards
-Three of the four toughest holes on property are Par 4's on the back-9, all with an over-par rate more than triple the birdie rate.
Par 5's (3): Average distance - 572 yards
-All three of them own an eagle rate of at least 1% with #7 the spot for dramatic swings (3.6% eagle rate is the highest on the course, but the 3.1% double+ ranked fourth highest)
DK Streak
This course is designed to create chaos on Sunday with three of the four toughest holes being 16-18, thus making a front to back path the way to go during the first two rounds. Holes 8 and 10 are among the five easiest on the course, giving every player the opportunity to see the peak of his round come over this stretch if playing this course in order.
CABOT GOLF GIVEAWAY
If you have a Coolbet account (code: Sports200 if you don’t), they’re giving away a trip package to go play at the Cabot Courses in October. These are the two of the world’s best courses, and I can tell you that first hand since I make the trek to go play them every year. All you need to do is OPT IN to the giveaway and go. It’s a bucket list trip. I live three hours away and it never disappoints. Coolbet is available to Canadians outside Ontario as an FYI.
OPT- IN TO THE COOLBET CABOT GIVEAWAY
PAST WINNERS (PGA CHAMPIONSHIP)
2024: Xander Schauffele (-21, Bryson DeChambeau)
2023: Brooks Koepka (-9, two strokes Viktor Hovland/Scottie Scheffler)
2022: Justin Thomas (-5, playoff win over Will Zalatoris)
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6, two strokes clear Brooks Koepka/Louis Oosthuizen)
2017 Justin Thomas -6 (PGA Championship At Quail Hollow)
Past Winner Notes
2024: Xander Schauffele (+1400)
- Xander was 2nd best on approach, 3rd best off the tee, and13th in putting for the week
The top-7 finishers for the week all gained ground putting from 10-15 feet
--> Tuned up with a 2nd place finish at Wells Fargo and had shown spike approach potential (+4.9 strokes on approach or more in three of five measured events prior -- he picked up 7.8 in his win)
2023: Brooks Koepka (+2000)
- Followed a Thursday 72 with 66-66-67 (the only top-6 finisher to shoot in the 60's on Saturday)
If you picked up over 4.5 strokes on approach, you cashed big. Here are the finishing results (in order) for the top APP players of the week: 2-7-4-7-1-2-12-4-18-9-9
--> 2nd at the Masters in his PGA event prior, didn't give us much optimism the year prior with a 55th place finish at this event
2022: Justin Thomas (+1600)
- Three 67's for the week (a Saturday 74 kept things interesting, but Zalatoris was unable to capitalize)
Thomas was the second best putter for the week (helped offset being 16th T2G). The top-7 finishers all gained over 1.5 strokes with the flat stick
--> Tuned up with a 5th place finish at Byron Nelson, entered rolling with the irons (over 2 strokes gained on approach in five straight measured events prior, +2.1 in his win)
2021: Phil Mickelson (+25000)
- Mickelson was the fifth best on approach for the week. He was fine with his long irons, a stat that popped on top of the leaderboard (four of the top-5 in Prox: 200+ cashed a top-10 paycheck)
Finishing position for the top-6 in around-the-green play for the week (ir order): 8-4-4-44-38-2
--> The odds reflect his form ... his four lead-in events were MC (Valero), 21st (Masters), MC (Valspar), and 69th (Wells Fargo) ... his last top-70 finish at this event prior to the win was 2016. Hw
FIRST ROUND LEADERS
62 - Xander Schauffele (68 or better in all four rounds)
65 - Three-way tie featuring Tony Finau, Mark Hubbard, and Sahith Theegala (65-67-67 to start before losing eight strokes to Xander with a 73 on Sunday)
2023 First Round Leaders
66 - Bryson DeChambeau (his only round in the 60's for the week)
67 - Four-way tie featuring Corey Conners, Eric Cole, Dustin Johnson, and Scottie Scheffler (let go of the rope on Saturday with a 73, seven strokes worse than Koepka)
2022 First Round Leaders
65 - Rory McIlory (struggled the next two days with rounds of 71 and 74)
66 - Will Zalatoris (13 shots better on Thursday-Friday than Saturday-Sunday) and Tom Hoge (eight shots worse on Friday)
2021 First Round Leaders
67 - Corey Conners (six shots better than any other round he had for the week)
69 - Six-way tie (Sam Horsfield followed his Thursday 69 with a Friday 80 and Aaron Wise with a Friday 79)
Past Winners (Quail Hollow; Wells Fargo Championship)
2024: Rory McIlroy (-17)
2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlory (-21)
2024: Rory McIlroy (-17; Five strokes Clear of Xander Schauffele)
What won at Quail Hollow last year (Wells Fargo)?
Rory and Xander were 1-2 on the final leaderboard ... they were 4th and 1st respectively on SG:APP
The Top 5 finishers all gained ground in Prox:200+
- If you gained over 3 strokes on APP and anything on the greens last season, you cashed a top-10 pay check ... the players who did it:
McIlory (1st)
Schauffele (2nd)
An (3rd)
Straka (T-8th)
Henley (T-10th)
Other notes from Quail Hollow, 2024
Xander finished 2nd despite losing ground putting from 10-15, 15-20, 20-25, AND 25+ feet (he was third best from 5-10 and third best from 0-5 and that was enough)
Five of the Top 6 Par 5 scorers for the week finished inside the top-10 on the final leaderboard (Patrick Cantlay was the lone exception, 29th place finish)
Nothing cute at the top of the DFS board -- the top-12 finishers for the week were the Top 12 in DK points
7 of the Top 12 finishers lost Fairways to the field
18 of the Top 20 finishers gained strokes on Par 4's from 450-500 yards (Si Woo Kim was the best in this regard, he finished T-16 for the week)
2023: Wyndham Clark (-19, four clear of Xander Schauffele)
-His 63 on Saturday was the round of the tournament, he was the only golfer to card 68 or better in all four rounds
-5 of the top 7 putters for the week cashed a top 8 paycheck (all 7 of them finished top 25)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10, one clear of Abe Ancer)
Had no form entering play (consecutive missed cuts)
No stand out round, but 66-68 in three of four days (was eight back after shooting a 72 on Thursday)
Each of the Top 8 finishers picked up at least 1.7 strokes with their putter (five of them gained at least 3.5 strokes)
2019: Max Homa (-15, three clear of Joel Dahmen)
Had no form entering play (three straight finishes outside the Top 40)
His Friday 63 was not only the round of the day, it ended up being the difference on the final leaderboard (Dahmen shot a 66)
Jason Day was the only Top 30 finisher to lose strokes on approach
Homa won on the back of +9.9 strokes putting (best in the field)
2018: Jason Day (-12, two clear of Nick Watney and Aaron Wise)
Was Top 20 in seven of eight events prior
Day was the only golfer to card four rounds in the 60s
Four of the top six in driving distance cashed Top 10 paychecks (six of the Top 12 finishers lost fairways to the field)
2016: James Hahn (-9, playoff win over Roberto Castro)
Had no form entering play (hadn’t made a cut in over three months)
His 68 on moving day was the best on the course and proved critical (three strokes better than Castro)
Hahn and Castro were two of the Top 6 players in the field in Proximity in the 75-100 yard bucket
2015: Rory McIlory (-21, seven clear of Patrick Rodgers and Webb Simpson)
Elite lead in form (Top-11 in each of his four events prior)
McIlroy’s 61 on Saturday was 7+ strokes better than any of the next five on the final leaderboard
Six of the Top 10 in SG: OTT cashed Top 10 pay checks
NOTES
Quail Hollow has been the host of the Wells Fargo Truist Championship since 2003 outside of seasons where the venue has attracted even larger events (2017/2025 PGA Championship; 2022 Presidents Cup).
The major difference between this iteration of the PGA Championship and 2017 is grass type and time of year. The 2017 PGA Championship was contested in August, just after the renovation with the Bermudagrass in full effect. This led to a completely baked out course hence the short game specialists at the top of the leaderboard. Now in May, this version of the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow should resemble more of what we’re used to each year for the annual PGA TOUR event — Bombers, long irons, putting.
A championship-level course located in Charlotte, North Carolina, Quail Hollow is widely regarded as one of the premier golf destinations in the Southeastern United States. The course was originally designed by renowned golf course architect George Cobb in 1961 but has undergone several redesigns since then, including a major renovation by Tom Fazio in 1997 and again prior to the 2017 PGA Championship.
The course is known for its challenging layout, featuring tree-lined fairways, numerous water hazards and strategically placed bunkers that require precision shot-making from players. The signature hole at Quail Hollow is the Par 3 17th, which requires a tee shot over a large pond to a green protected by bunkers on either side.
Strokes Gained will always show approach as the biggest driver of success of the T2G metrics, the gap between approach and off the tee is smaller than at any other course on TOUR. Of the Top 10 finishers per year, they average +0.58 SG: OTT and +0.82 SG: APP per round. There are courses where approach is over three times as important as driving, for reference.
Golfers need to be precise off the tee in order to avoid the thick rough and strategically placed bunkers that line Quail Hollow’s narrow fairways. Distance has proven to be more important than accuracy, but some combination of the two trumps all. You’ll see a generic bomber pop up each year, or even win from nowhere in the case of Derek Ernst (or an Andrew Loupe FRL!!!!). That alone should prove the value of driving distance.
It’s not the only path, however. You’ll see a scattershot of shorter-to-average-length players that still gain a bounty of strokes off the tee: Francesco Molinari, Sundae im, Abraham Ancer, Joel Dahmen all spring to mind.
The common trait among the shorter smackers who’ve experienced the most success is an ability to control long irons. Over 50% of approaches this week will come from beyond 175 yards (31% from 200+).
There’s also a weird crossover between Quail Hollow with Rivera and Torrey Pines despite being on opposite coasts. Each features fast, unique green complexes, and each requires a ton of distance to cut down the course. From the past decade, Max Homa, James Hahn and JB Holmes all have wins at Quail and RIV; Jason Day and Homa have both won at Torrey.
The final three holes at Quail Hollow are dubbed “The Green Mile” and it’s the most difficult finishing stretch in the regular PGA TOUR course rotation. Since 2003 there have been over 1800 water balls on these three holes. Collectively, they’ve played +0.91 on average over that time span. Overall, there have been 1800+ water balls here since 2003.
PLAYER NOTES
Best putters from 0-5 and 5-10 feet this season (that Xander bucket from Quail last season):
0-5 feet
1. Vince Whaley
2. Emiliano Grillo (!)
3. Harris English
4. Denny McCarthy
5. Rickie Fowler
5-10 feet
1. Beau Hossler
2. Sami Valimaki
3. Nick Dunlap
4. Sam Burns
5. Michael Kim
Best Par 4 players relative to the field on 450-500 yards this season
Most Improved long iron (200+) players from last season (PGA players only, min. 20 rounds played both seasons). Calculated by Prox: 200+ change from All Rounds last season to All Rounds this season. All players included, BOLD are not in the PGA Championship field
1. Russell Henley: +23.4 from 2024
2. Joel Dahmen: +22.0
3. Erik Van Rooyen: +21.5
4. Adam Schenk: +20.3
5. Sam Ryder: +19.9
6. Charley Hoffman: +18.9
7. Ludvig Aberg: +18.5
8. Seamus Power: +17.5
9. Harry Higgs: +17.4
10. Will Gordon: +16.4
11. Daniel Berger: +14.3
12. Nick Taylor: +13.9
13. Sepp Straka: +13.5
14. Ryo Hisatsune: +12.9
15. Harris English: +12
16. Jordan Spieth: +11.6
17. Scottie Scheffler: +11.6
18. Akshay Bhatia: +11.5
19. Austin Eckroat: +11.1
20. Stephan Jaeger: +11
And the players losing the most ground compared to last season with their long irons:
1.Keegan Bradley: -33.4
2. Lee Hodges: -29.1
3. Brandt Snedeker: -24.1
4. Cam Young: -22.7
5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout: -21
6. Keith Mitchell: -21
7. Sam Burns: -19.6
8. Patrick Fishburn: -18.9
9. Rafael Campos: -18.7
10. Byeong Hun An: -18.3
PICKS
Bryson DeChambeau (+1600) — While I was (mistakenly) off of him at The Masters, Bryson’s ability to overpower PGA Championships and US Opens should always have him in strong consideration as a pick to win. Between LIV and the Masters, he’s played in four consecutive final pairings, finally closing his last time out at LIV Korea. And, among the big 3 (Scottie, Rory, and Bryson), he is the most reliable on the greens historically. If we get the smiler iron play to the Masters, then he’s not going to win, but between his prodigious driving and elite putting, a slightly above average approach week should have him with another late tee time Sunday. One of the best predictors of Major performance is past Major results and Bryson has four Top 6 finishes in his past five Majors, and has three Top 4 finishes in three of the past four PGA Championships. Plus, he’s more than double the odds of Rory and Scottie. He shouldn’t be.
Dean Burmester +15000 (8 Places) — This wasn’t meant to be a LIV convention, but in the odds market, the LIV distain from the general public actually gets us better odds and the vast majority of its golfers. Burmester’s been a fringe Top 30 player in the world for the past two years, but you’d never know since he’s quite anonymous. Well, Mean Dean is on the longest players in the field, quality short game with the ability to post spike approach weeks, especially with his long irons. He just can’t putt. Hopefully he forgets that and makes a few this week.