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2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Field: 80 Players
Cut: NO CUT
Lineup Lock: Thursday, January 30
Defending Champ: Wyndham Clark
The 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am aka THE REDUX. A year ago Pebble was given signature status. Which was exciting. For decades, this event was been marred by the awful three-course rotation, 54-hole cut, Pro-Am format. But that changed last year. While I’m usually a hater of smaller fields, shrinking this one from 156 to 80 players was a godsend. Anyone who ever sat through one of those brutal CBS Saturday rounds, where they spend more time breaking down Larry the Cable Guy’s swing in slow motion than actually showing shots of, you know, pro golfers, knows precisely what I’m talking about.
Pebble Beach is one of the TOUR’s most iconic courses and delivering the worst broadcast of the year for the event was a massive disservice for viewers. Especially since, Pebble is generally where a lot of most casual audience tunes in for the first time every year. It suffered from all the problems The American Express has: Limited cameras and and shot link at the other courses. Just brutal stuff.
Since it’s been upgraded to a “signature event” there’s now no cut, which isn’t awesome, but they dropped Monterey Peninsula from the course rotation and limited the Pro-Am portion of the event to just the first two rounds. The field splits between Pebble Beach GL and Spyglass Hill the first two rounds before only playing at Pebble over the weekend. They event moved this tournament to the NFL bye-week between the conference championships and the Super Bowl to really take advantage of the extra eyeballs.
I guess the Gods decided this was too much of a good thing in 2024. Weather blew everything up and it became the first 54-hole tournament on TOUR since the 2016 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. We were robbed of a fantastic weekend showdown at Pebble in the first tournament with all the best players TOUR. Hopefully, we get a make up this year. Although, early forecasts do have some rain and HIGH WINDS on the doppler over the weekend.
Of the top players in the world (excluding LIV guys, obviously), only Xander Schauffele isn’t playing. He’s now missing his third straight event with a rib injury. Scottie Scheffler is making his 2025 debut following his hand injury which has kept him watching football on Sundays from his couch so far this season. Following off-season wrist surgery, Jordan Spieth is back for Pebble, and has already committed to Phoenix next week as well. He’s in on a sponsors exemption since he didn’t finish installs the Top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings last year. Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, and Keith Mitchell have the three other exemptions. Expect to see Spieth and Rickie get invitations to all these signature events btw.
Rory McIlroy is making his making his first appearance stateside. On the PGA TOUR. He’s taking on Tiger Woods Monday in a TGL CLASH FOR THE AGES!!!!! Rory was T4 in Dubai two weeks ago, his first start since winning the DP World Tour championship in November. The runner-up at that event, Rasmus Hojgaard is also pulling a Prince Akeem for Pebble Beach. Rasmus was T14 in Dubai. Finally, Tommy Fleetwood begins his eighth year of trying to get his first PGA TOUR win. Good Luck Tommy lad.
The big question I had for 2024 was: Will we see the top end players dominate or will Pebble beach be ripe for shorter hitting long shots like previous years? Wyndham Clark won at +6000 in three rounds, but was surrounded on the leaderboard by equal parts betting favorites and super long shots. Answer: Inconclusive.
Pebble Beach is annually the course with the shortest average drive on TOUR (268 yards vs. 283 yards) and the one with the fewest amount of drives over 300 yards (17%). In theory, this should mitigate the advantage of the premier drivers in the world — aka most of the elite players — since so many players will be less than driver off the tee.
The elite drivers dominated during the 2019 US Open when all of top guys played. Woodland won, with Brooks, Rahm, Xander, Louis, and Rory all finished Top 10 that year. That was under USGA conditions, though. In the much easier Pro-Am set up will it just play like normal and the skill advantage will be equalized? In the regular tournament, as much as we don’t want to really say, it’s kind of a putting contest.
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am has historically opened the door for long-shot winners. Three of the past eight winners — Potter, Nick Taylor and Vaughn Taylor — all went off at triple digits. Overall, the last eight winners have all been either 30/1 or below (Rose, Spieth, Mickelson and Berger) or 100/1 or longer. Two years ago, Hoge became the lone outlier opening 65/1 in the betting market and running down Spieth over the final holes. I’m not counting Clark since it was 54-holes.
KEY STATS
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 5s: Gained
Proximity Gained: 100-150 Yards
Par-4s Gained: 350-400 Yards
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
COURSE(s)
Course: Pebble Beach GL (Three Rounds)
Par: 72
Yardage: 6,972
Greens: Poa
Number of Sand Bunkers: 116
Number of Water Hazards: 1 (ocean)
Shot Tracker: Yes
Average Green Size: 3,500 sq. ft
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 170 yards
- Two of the four toughest holes on the course are longer Par 3's (Holes 5 and 12)
- During his strong Round 3, Clark was only even on the Par 3's (one birdie and one bogey)
Par 4's (10): Average distance - 413 yards
- Four of the most difficult six holes are Par 4's that come within the first 10 holes when playing the course in order (Holes 1-8-9-10, all of which have an over-par rate over 18%)
- Clark ran off six straight under-par holes in Round 3 from holes 6-11, including a run of four straight Par 4's (holes 8-11)
Par 5's (4): Average distance - 541 yards
- The two front-nine Par 5's are must gets -- both have an eagle rate over 2.5% and a birdie rate over 45%
- Clark eagle'd both Par 5's on the front-9 in Round 3 (final round). He birdied the two on the back-9 (his 60 was three shots better than anyone else that day)
DFS Streak
Pebble Beach GL is designed to keep us from leveraging starting hole in showdown. If you're going front-to-back, you run into holes 8-9-10 in succession, all of which rank among the five toughest on the course. If you're going back-to-front, you get access to Holes 18-1, both of which are among the seven easiest, but to go streaking, you need three straight ... holes 2 and 17 rank as the second and third toughest on the course respectively. I don't think many streaks cross over the 9's this week, but if they do happen, I think going back-to-front is the play, as you only have to birdie one tough hole as opposed to two.
While Wyndham Clark did it last year, the odds of birding 8-9-10 is under 0.1%. Going the other direction, Hole 1 is tough (13% under par rate), but the surrounding holes are manageable (Holes 18-2-3 all rank easier than course average).
Course: Spyglass Hill GC (One Round)
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,041
Greens: Poa
Number of Sand Bunkers: 62
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 4
Shot Tracker: No
Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 171 yards
- Three of the four most par'd holes on the course (the Par 3 with the highest par rate saw Clark double bogey it last season)
- The last Par 3 (when playing in order) is the easiest (20.9% birdie rate, the only Par 3 over 14%)
Par 4's (10): Average distance - 408 yards
- Seven of the eight toughest holes are Par 4 (three of the four hardest Par 4's coming on the second half of the front-9)
- Clark had two birdies on Par 4's in his lone SH round last season and they came in succession (holes 16-17)
Par 5's (4): Average distance - 566 yards
- Four of the five easiest holes on property, two carrying an eagle rate north of 2%
- Clark played the Par 5's at even on his course last season
DFS Streak
The advantage is limited, but by going back-to-front, you get access to a short Par 4 (#17) and a Par 5 (#1), making that the way to go if you're really trying to split hairs.
PAST WINNERS
2024: Wyndham Clark -17 (54 Holes)
2023: Justin Rose -18
2022: Tom Hoge -19
2021: Daniel Berger -18
2020: Nick Taylor -19
2019: Phil Mickelson -19
2018: Ted Potter Jr. -17
2017: Jordan Spieth -19
2016: Vaughn Taylor -17
PAST WINNER NOTES
2024: Wyndham Clark (+6000)
2 courses, Clark's scoring progressed from 72 (Spyglass)-67-60 in the three-round event. Despite the varying levels of success, he went over-par on at least one Par-3 in all three rounds
Clark was 2.1 strokes better with the flat stick than anyone else in the field. Three of the top-5 putters for the week cashed top-5 paychecks
2023: Justin Rose (+3500)
3 course rotation, Rose had an eagle, nine birdies, and two bogeys during his 36 holes at Pebble
Rose was 6th best around the green (runner-up Brandon Todd was 9th ARG)
Entered in strong form having gained a total of 12.6 strokes at Farmer and AmEx
9 of the top 10 finishers gained Prox: 175-200 (Keith Mitchell finished 4th for the week thanks to being second best in this bucket -- he lost proximity in the four surrounding buckets)
2022: Tom Hoge (+6000)
3 course rotation, chaos on the front-9 in both rounds at Pebble. In Round 1, he had five straight birdies (Holes 3-8). In Round 4, he went birdie-double-birdie-birdie-bogey in Holes 4-8
Hoge was the third best putter for the week and Beau Hossler (solo-3rd place) was the fifth best putter. Mackenzie Hughes and David Lipsky finished top-25 thanks to the top-2 putting performances of the week (they were a combined -4.8 strokes from tee-to-green)
Missed the cut at Farmers, but still had good golf in his mind with a runner up finish at AmEx
Of the top 8 in Prox: 175-200, three finished top 10 on the final leaderboard and another three cashed top 20 paychecks
2021: Daniel Berger (+1400)
2 courses, four eagles in three rounds at Pebble, including two on Sunday (-6 on the Par 5's in that round)
Berger was 6th in approach and 15th in around-the-green -- 10 of the top 13 finishers gained multiple strokes putting (Cameron Tringale led with +6.3, fuelling his T-7th finish despite ranking outside of the top-25 in T2G)
Highlight: Berger moved the wrong way on “moving day” with a 72, but was seven shots better on Sunday
The Top-11 finishers all gained Driving Distance on the field
The Top-13 finishers all gained with the putter
2020: Nick Taylor (+12500)
3 course rotation, Sunday had windy AF conditions for the first time that week and Taylor wasn't immune -- he was +4 over a four hole stretch (Holes 11-14). The difference? His good was really good: -4 in a three-hole stretch early to get distance (Holes 4-6) and two birdies in three holes late (Holes 15-17, following an ugly '7' on Hole 14)
Highlight: Taylor was the Round 1 leader (by three strokes) after shooting a 63
The Top-10 finishers all gained with the putter (Taylor was the second best putter for the week)
2019: Phil Mickelson (-19, three shots clear of Paul Casey)
Highlight: Mickelson bookended the tournament with 65s and led the field in approach
The top-9 finishers all gained in Good Drives (only four gained in distance)
2018: Ted Potter (-17, 3 clear of Day/Mickelson/Reavie/DJ)
Highlight: Potter fired a 62 on Saturday (best round of the weekend, no one else had a round better than 64)
2017: Jordan Spieth (-19, 4 clear of Kelly Kraft)
Highlight: Spieth was inside the Top 5 in Good Drives and GIRs for the week
3 of the Top 9 finishers gained over 50 strokes of distance BUT lost fairways to the field
2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17, 1 clear of Mickelson)
Highlight: Progressively got better … 70-68-67-65
Taylor won despite losing almost a stroke with the putter (the other Top 15 finishers all gained with the flat stick … Taylor picked up 10.2 strokes T2G, 2.8 better than anyone else)
First Round Leaders
2024 ROUND 1
Pebble Beach GL
65 - Mattieu Pavon (Birdied Holes 1-2)
66 - Si WOO Kim
67 Collin Morikawa
Spyglass Hill
63 - Thomas Detry (Spyglass, birdie streak on Holes 1-3, shot 5-under on Back-9)
64 - Patrick Cantlay (Spyglass, five birdies on Holes 1-8, included Holes 1-2)
66- Emiliano Grillo (Spyglass, birdied Holes 1-2) and Si Woo Kim (Spyglass, didn't birdie Hole 1, but was -5 on his next 7 holes)
2023 ROUND 1
Pebble Beach
65 — Chad Ramey
67 — Scott Stallings
67 — Kyle Westmorland
Spyglass Hill
67 — Keith Mitchell
68 — Joseph Bramlett
69 — 4 players tied
2022 ROUND 1
Pebble Beach
63 - Tom Hoge (Pebble, six straight birdies from Hole 3-8)
65 — Austin Smotherman
67 — Scott Stallings
Spy Glass
64 - Seamus Power (Spyglass, eight birdies and no bogeys) and Jonas Blixt (Monterey Peninsula, his only round better than 72)
68 — 8 Players Tied
2021 ROUND 1
Pebble Beach
62 - Patrick Cantlay (Pebble, seven birdies on Holes 1-8)
64 - Henrik Norlander (four birdies on Holes 1-7)
64 —Akshay Bhatia (five birdies on Holes 1-8, was no better than 72 any other round)
SpyGlass Hill
66 — Will Gordon
67 — Daniel Berger
68 — 3 Played Tied
EVENT NOTES
Coastal winds can be a contributing factor to this, as well. Pebble Beach can switch from easy to frustratingly difficult with a wind shift. Spyglass tends to be more protected with the trees.
Shot Link data is only available for Pebble Beach GL. When you’re researching the statistics keep this in mind as half the rounds golfers have played historically at this event are not weighted in the Strokes Gained metrics.
Course history has been strong at Pebble Beach. All winners this millennium had previously made a cut at Pebble Beach in their career before winning, and most had a Top 10 finish on their resume (Clark at a T18 in 2020). A lot of that can be attributed to comfortability on these greens. If you thought the short misses were bad at Torrey Pines, just wait for the misses this week, especially with three rounds at Pebble Beach.
Pebble Beach Putting Ranks by Distance
Inside 5’ 94.97% (3rd Lowest)
5-10’ 50.3% (2nd Lowest)
Inside 10’ 84.59% (3rd Lowest)
10-15’ 25.63% (Lowest)
5-15’ 40.39% (2nd Lowest)
15-25’ 13.18% (3rd Lowest)
Of players with more than two rounds at Pebble Beach GL, only Wyndham Clark, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Gary Woodland, Sungjae Im, Denny McCathy, and Akshay Bhatia are averaging more than +0.95 SG: PUTT/Round.
Green sizes at Pebble Beach at just 3,500 square feet. Hence the extra consideration for SG: Around The Green, as making putts from outside 10-feet is quite the chore.
2024 Smallest Avg. Greens by sq. ft.
3,500 – Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach)
3,700 – Harbour Town (RBC Heritage)
4,300 – TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude)
4,700 — PGA West Stadium Course (American Express)
4,773 — La Quinta CC (American Express)
5,000 — Spyglass Hill (AT&T Pebble Beach)
5,000 — Colonial CC (Charles Schwab Challenge)
(Daniel Berger has four career wins; 2 at Southwind, 1 at Colonial, 1 at Pebble. He’s not in the field this week btw)
Since 2000, the leader or co-leader after 54 holes has gone on to win 13 times, including nine of the past 11 years. Rose led by a stroke a year ago, Hoge was tied with Hossler and Putnam, Berger was T2, one stroke behind Spieth in 2021, and Phil Mickelson was three back of Paul Casey entering the final round in 2019.
Six first-round leaders have gone on to win at Pebble Beach since 2000, as Nick Taylor became the sixth in 2020. He also became the first international winner at of this event since Vijay Singh in 2004. With his 2023 victory, Rose became the first player from Europe too ever win the event.
PICKS
Jason Day —Expect more maybe Luke Donald at The Heritage, no player has ever had so much success at a tournament without ever winning. Coming in striking his irons better than any point over the past three years, this could finally be Day’s year to check Pebble Beach off his career accomplishment list.
Mark Hubbard — Long shots in an signature event aren’t generally the best looks, however at Pebble Beach there has been enough champions from the clouds to warrant a wager or two. Hubbard has been playing very solid golf to kick off 2025, and his general lack of elite driving skills should be less of a factor on this layout versus most others featuring the world top players. He picked up a T3 in Bermuda (a similar style course) in the Swing Season, and has posted a Top 20 each of the past two seasons in this event, including a T4 in last year’s shortened tournament.