2025 Farmers Insurance Open Picks, Bets, Course Preview

Quick Notes

• Tournament starts on Wednesday

• Target Bombers/Driving distance

• Use only North Course players first two rounds for Showdown

HOT LINKS

2025 Farmers Insurance Open Picks, Research, Sleepers, Preview, Guess The Odds

Farmers Picks, Bets and One & Done Selections: OUT NOW!!!

2025 Farmers Insurance Open Preview

• Field: 156 Players

• Cut: Top 65 and Ties

• Lineup Lock: Wednesday, January 21

• Defending Champ: Matthieu Pavon

Once considered the unofficial starting point for the PGA season, Torrey Pines has lost its luster the past few years because of scheduling issues. Plus no Tiger and Phil. Even at his most gimped up, Tiger routinely made the Farmers his debut event, making the Farmers seem notable. San Diego is one of the 14 Phil places Phil considered his “home” so he was always here too. Now with Pebble (next week) operating as signature event (then another in two weeks for the Genesis), it’s just not quite what it once was.

The field has remains solid, but the two betting favorites, Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele have already withdrawn —Nicolai Højgaard too — taking it down a few notches. Not sure why Morikawa is skipping Farmers; Xander is dealing with an unknown injury. Not sure of either of their statuses for Pebble.

Still we’re getting Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, Will Zalatoris, Aaron Rai, Si Woo Kim, Stephan Jaeger, Luke Clanton, Taylor Pendrith, Eric Cole, Matthieu Pavon, and Austin Eckroat. Along with the PGA season debuts of Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, Thriston Lawrence, Matt Wallace, and Niklas Norgaard. Norgaard just finished T4 at the Dubai Desert Classic over the weekend; Bhatia (T37), Lawrence (MC), and Wallace (T45) were also playing in the Middle East.

Despite the series of Ls the tournament has taken recently, there is one decision they continue to get correct: Starting the Farmers Insurance Open on Wednesday. This way it doesn’t conflict with the NFL conference championship games and Saturday afternoon (evening on the East Coast) can provide the thrilling conclusion with no football within 12 hour of a winner hoisting a novelty check.

I very much enjoy (Irony. I don’t) when there’s a simple solution to an issue and they’ve said it out loud, but just haven’t connected the dots. Now, maybe I’m the fool here, and am not privy to the intricacies of the TV contacts; but, hear me out on this; if you’re scared to compete with the NFL on one of four Sundays in January, how is it, that when you have the product with the lower amount of interest (to put it lightly) you’re not avoiding going head-to-head with football every week in January? The Sony Open had a thrilling final two weeks. I know this because I was one of 463 viewers watching it on a second screen with football.

Just make everything until the championship games Wednesday-Sunday. It can’t be that hard to figure out. Yes, NFL runs games on Saturdays in the that window. From my view, competing one day instead of two seems like the better idea. Maybe that’s just me, an elite understander of the Gregorian blueprint; then you can switch back to Sunday finishes at Pebble Beach in the NFL bye week, then keep Phoenix as the lead in to the Super Bowl and we’re off.

To reiterate, in case you suffer from GRR — goldfish reading retention — The PGA Tour (well, CBS) wants none of that NFL Sunday smoke, so the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open will start on WEDNESDAY and end on SATURDAY this week. I mention this in BOLD and CAPSSSSS because of the overflow of people who have reached out to me on Wednesday evenings the last three years asking why golfers already have scores is honestly shocking.

The one thing Farmers retains to elevate it is the course. While I like Sony, mainly because it provides a banger finishes almost every season, Torrey Pines is the first real test of the year. It’s not a USGA set up for the Farmers, but it’s difficult enough. If you consider the Hawaii events and AMEX the birdiefest pre-season warmup, The Farmers remains the true start of the PGA season. As this kicks off a four weeks of awesome events before taking a breather at the Mexico Open in advance to the TOUR shifting to Florida.

The event is split between the Torrey Pines North and South courses the first two days, before South Course hosts all player who make the cut for the final two rounds. Of note: The North course is about 500 yards shorter and significantly easier than the South Course. There’s only shot link at the South Course, so any stats you see — this year or researching previous seasons— will be only be from that course. I’m not normally someone who dabbles in DraftKings Single Round showdown contests, however I’ll be injecting my account with some extra funds this week to stack the North Course bombers each of the first two rounds.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach

• Driving Distance Gained

• Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards

• Strokes Gained: Around The Green

• Par 4s Gained: 450-500 Yards

Mayo’s Key Stats Rankings powered by FantasyNational.com

I made simple version of the power ranks amplifying distance, along irons and around the green only.

Mayo’s Key Stats Rankings powered by FantasyNational.com

Course(s)

Torrey Pines South (Three Rounds)

• Par: 72

• Yardage: 7,765

• Greens: Poa

• Shot Tracker: Yes

Par 3's (4): Average distance - 208 yards

- 2 are 225+ (#8 is 177 and that drags down the average a bit) and the three most oft-par'd holes are Par 3's (all par'd over two-thirds of the time)

- Pavon didn't par #8 a single time (two birdies and a bogey)

Par 4's (10): Average distance - 466 yards

- 8 are over 450 yards (four measure at least 480 yards) -- three of those come on the front 9 AND are among the six toughest holes on the course, all owning an over par rate over 25%

- Pavon posted a -7 Round 2 on the South Course that included five birdies on Par 4's

Par 5's (4): Average distance - 593 yards

- All are over 560 yards -- these are the four easiest holes on the course (three have a birdie rate that is more than triple the over-par rate)

- Pavon went 4-for-4 in terms of going under par of the front-9 Par 5's over the weekend (all birdies -- he birdied the two back-9 Par 5's on Friday).

Torrey Pines North (One Round)

1. Par: 72

2. Yardage: 7,258

3. Greens: Bentgrass

4. Shot Tracker: No

Par 3's (4): Average distance - 215 yards

- All are over 200 yards and all play harder than average

- These are four of the six toughest holes to birdie (all under 9.5%), including the toughest hole on the course (241-yard #3, 4.5% birdie rate and 27.6% bogey-or-worse)

• Pavon missed the green on two-of-four, but he managed to par all of them in his first round

Par 4's (10): Average distance - 426 yards

• 3 are over 475 yards and 3 are sub-400 yards -- two of the three most difficult Par 4's come right out of the gates (Holes 2 and 4)

- Four Par 4's have a double-or-worse rate north of 1%. The course has three Par 4's in the first four holes when working front-to-back ... those three holes own a cumulative score of +0.28.

- Pavon had two first round bogey's on the Par 4's last season, one each nine)

Par 5's (4): Average distance - 535 yards

- Distances range from 520-556 -- all of them have an eagle rate over 1% and a bogey rate under 5%

- Pavon birded the two front nine 5's and found the fairway on all four.

DFS Streak

Farmers DraftKings Picks, Lineups, Bets, One and Done | DK Showdown Strategy w/ Tambo

The rare very clear advantage takes place here for Showdown players. Since the field alternates between courses for the first two days, target bombers at the easier North Course for DraftKings Showdown purposes. If your golfers can start on Hole No. 1 instead of Hole No. 10, that’d be a big advantage, too. Don’t get tricky or too cute. Just stack six golfers from the North Course Wednesday and Thursday and you’re far and away ahead of the field. It’s the best two rounds of the year to play DK showdown.

Hole 18 on the North Course is the toughest on property (average score: +0.22) and Holes 2-3-4 are also among the five most difficult. Hole 17 is a gimme (60.1% under par rate) and Hole 1 is average, but getting home on #18 is a tough ask and if you fail to get #17, you're drawing close to dead when it comes to a wrap around streak.

There are a few ways to streak when playing this course in order, the statistically most likely being the 9-10-11 stretch that features a pair of Par 5's. Hole 11 is a short Par 4 that carries just a 27% birdie rate. You can be aggressive here with two holes holding an under par rate north of 44% prior, one good wedge shot puts you in position for the bonus.

Past Winners

• 2024: Mattieu Pavon -13

• 2023: Max Homa -13

• 2022: Luke List -15

• 2021: Patrick Reed -14

• 2020: Marc Leishman -15

• 2019: Justin Rose -21

• 2018: Jason Day -10

WINNER NOTES

2024: Matthieu Pavon (+12500)

- Pavon was 3rd on the week in approach and 5th putting (helping to offset -0.3 strokes around the green)

- Each of the top-12 finishes gained on approach (Stephan Jaeger finished T-3 despite bleeding 1.6 strokes with the putter, thanks to picking up 4.5 on approach)

2023: Max Homa (+2000)

- Home and Keegan Bradley finished 1-2 on the leaderboard and they finished 1-2 on Prox125-150.

- The top four approach players for the week finished 1st, T-4th, 3rd, and T-4th on the final leaderboard.

2022: Luke List (+6000)

- List beat Will Zalatoris in a playoff thanks to ... his putting? List was 5 strokes better on the greens (+3.7 compared to -1.3) for the week than Zalatoris.

- List and Zalatoris were top-3 performers in Prox 12-150 (the top-5 in that range all finished 16th or better for the week)

2021: Patrick Reed (+2500)

- Just get close ... Reed was 10th in putting and 1st around the green in the victory

- Short putting matters ... 8 of the top 9 finishers gained strokes putting from 5-10 feet. Of those nine: only three gained from 10-15 feet, only three gained from 15-10 feet, and none of them gained more than 0.7 strokes from 20-25 feet.

2020: Marc Leishman (+5000)

- A hot putter carried him over Jon Rahm by a stroke. He was +8 strokes putting (Rahm was next best at +5.9) and that was enough despite losing ground (albeit slightly) both off the tee and around the green)

- 17 of the top-20 finishers gained distance off the tee (Rory McIlroy finished T-3 despite gaining just 0.6 strokes with the putter as a result of the third most ground gained distance wise from the tee box)

First Round Leaders

2024 ROUND 1

• 64 - Kevin Yu (North, 10 shots worse on Friday)

• 65 - Ryo Hisatsune (North, 10 worse on Friday) and Patrick Cantlay (North, 8 worse Friday)

• 66 - Five way tie (all North)

2023 ROUND 1

• 64 - Sam Ryder (North, progressively got worse: 64-68-72-75), Brent Grant (North, 10 worse on Friday) and Aaron Rai (North, 14 worse on Friday)

• 65 - Brendan Steele (North, 5 worse on Friday)

2022 ROUND 1

• 63 - Billy Horschel (North, 10 worse on Friday)

• 64 - Michael Thompson (North, 9 worse on Friday)

• 65 - Kevin Tway (North, 9 worse on Friday) and Stephen Jaeger (North, MC after a Friday 77)

THE CUSTYS

THE CUSTYS BALLOT IS LIVEEEE!!!!!!!!! Remember, you only get to vote once, you take your time on your selections. I’ve been having problems deciding on WORST TAKE

VOTE FOR THE 2025 CUSTY AWARDS

We’re also planning a few NEW things for content, including a LIVE SHOW in Toronto this summer. Probably June or July. We’re trying to fund all this through Underdog sign ups, so if you havent done that yet, just chuck on $10 using code MAYO, get your bonus and play an entry for us. I’m booking venues now, so if you think you may wanna come to a LIVE show with me, cust, geoff, cam, garion, rob and more. Reply to this post and let me know so I book the proper size venue.

Use Code “MAYO” at Underdog unlocks a FREE PICK deposit bonus up to $1000

Notes

13 of the past 16 winners have posted a top 10 at this event prior to winning. Mathieu Pavon and Jon Rahm won in their first starts in 2024 and 2017. So beware of a first time EURO in 2031. Scott Stallings in 2014 was the other exception.

HOW TO WIN (helps being a bomber)

Recent Course Horses

• Max Homa: Four Top 20s and a win last five years.

• Tony Finau: Four Top 10s the last five years.

• Will Zalatoris: 2nd & T13 two of past three years.

• Sungjae Im: Top 10s two of past three years.

• Hideki Matsuyama: T9/T13 last two years.

• Jason Day: Top 10s two of last three years.

• Joesph Bramlett; Top 25 three of past four years.

• Adam Schnek: Top 25 past two years

• Taylor Montgomery: T13 each of past two years.

• Pavon, Knapp, Ludvig all Top 10 in tournament debut

The last four winners (Pavon,Homa, List and Reed) showed the ability to show well early in the season prior (no need to get into "mid-season" form)

• Pavon: Two Top 10s in his first four tournaments the calendar year prior

• Homa: Three top 15's in his first four tournaments the calendar year prior

• List: Three top 30's in his first four tournaments the calendar year prior (10th at Farmers)

• Reed: Two top 6's in his first three tournaments the calendar year prior

Does this have any meaning? Very unlikely. But I found it interesting nonetheless.

Torrey Pines South is the longest course in the annual PGA Tour rotation.

12 of the past 18 winners at the Farmers have finished the season inside the top 30 in Driving Distance, and the ones who didn’t gain a ridiculous amount of strokes putting on the field — hello, Patrick Reed — Homa finished 62nd last year.

Three things to target from your picks: driving distance, iron play from 175-plus yards and around-the-green. While a short smacker like Brandt Snedeker has experienced a lot of success at Torrey Pines, most of the leaderboard is generally congested with bombers who don’t have the yips from just off the green.

Just look at the DD Gained of the leaders last year. Eight of the Top 20 in Driving Distance gained finished inside the Top 10:

Get 20% off at FantasyNational.com

Very rarely does Strokes Gained: Around The Green factor into the winning score. However, the greens at the South Course are tiny and pairing an average-or-better short game with a big driver is tested method to crack the Sunday leaderboard. Not the only way, but the path of least resistance. Obviously, fairways + distance off the tee will equal a slew of GIRs, which would be optimal, but that’s just simply unfeasible for three rounds on this course with the average scrambling percentage hovering around 52%.

If you feel the need to put shorter hitters in your lineups, make sure they gain strokes off the tee through their accuracy and know how to hit a long iron. There are six par 4s measuring over 450 yards and five of them are inside the six most difficult holes on Torrey Pines South and all played over par. Holes No. 12 and No. 15 are two of the 50 toughest holes on the PGA Tour almost every year, majors included.

The driving accuracy percentage of players who made the cut generally hovers around 50%. Both courses sport some of the most difficult fairways to hit every season.

Although Poa Annua putting surfaces tend to run slower on average, expect greens on the South Course to run faster because of the windy and dry conditions. After renovations in 2016, there’s actually a split in grass type between the putting surfaces at the courses when the North Course switched to bentgrass. Both courses average more three-putts than the PGA Tour average.

Early Picks

Will Zalatoris — Willy Z has already flashed some peak rounds in the early part of the season, but it’s always tough for him to win a birdiefest when his putter just can’t sustain the required fire for four rounds. Now at a stiffer test, where his T2G can do the damage, he’s plenty live for his second career win. Just don’t miss too many 5-footers and he should be fine.

Stephen Jaeger — Was the outright leader heading to the back nine in the final round a year ago, and is now back for revenge. He could have won at Sony two weeks ago but an untimely case for the LEFTS coming home dropped him out of the playoff by a stroke. It’s never going to be stress free when zee German is in the lead late. But beyond his T3 here last year, he also posted a T3 at the Mexico Open, a course where there’s been a shocking amount of cross over, then won in Houston. Another driver heavy, difficult course which relies on scrambling to keep in contention.

Michael Thorbjornsen — No course history winners have happened before (like last year!) it’s fairly infrequent. Yet, when you’ll looking for the winning skill set it’s Thorbjornsen: 6th in driving distance, 16th in 200+ proximity, and 23rd around the green over the past 24 rounds while gaining 2.3+ SG: PUTT in four of his past 8 starts. The 23-year-old’s stats are looking like a slightly lesser version of 2017 Jon Rahm’s stats when he picked up his first win in his first Torrey appearance.

From the back end

Taylor Moore — On paper, Moore has the required skill set for Torrey. He bombs it, is masterful around the greens, and putts well most of the time. He rebounded nicely with a Top 10 at PGA West after missing the cut at Sony and back at a driver heavy tournament he should contend for another Top 10.

Sam Ryder — Ryder alternates every year at Farmers with missed cut follow by a career best finish — MC/43/MC/10/MC/4th/MC. He basically had this tournament won in 2023 until the broadcast decided to put his mom on live as he made the turn and he imploded. Was on his way to a third Top 25 in four starts until he made two doubles coming home at AMEX.