2025 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks, Bets, Course Preview
QUICK BETS
Ben An +3000
Jaeger +3700
Knapp +6600
Kevin Yu +7000 (With 8 Places)
Tosti +10000 (With 8 Places)
Valimaki +10000 (With 8 Places)
Salinda +125000
CJ CUP BYRON NELSON
Field: 156 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
First Tee: Thursday, May 1
Defending Champion: Taylor Pendrith
Michael Kim, Keith Mitchell, Nick Dunlap, Blades Brown, Zac Blair, S.H. Kim, Brandt Snedeker, and Joe Highsmith have all withdrawn from the CJ Cup.
CJ CUP HOT LINKS
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KEY STATS
SG: Approach
Proximity 175+ Yards
Par 4s Gained 450-500 Yards
SG: Off The Tee
Eagles Gained
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
PME LIVE TICKETS
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COURSE
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Par: 71
Yardage 7,569
Greens: Bentgrass
Average Green Size: 6,778 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 83
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 13
The upcoming summer renovation will include everything but tees.
Since last year new irrigation, fairway drainage and tree work was done.
New Tour tees were added on six holes (5, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14).
At 7,561 yards this is the longest par-71 course so far this year on Tour, as well as the 4th-longest overall of courses played in 2025.
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 204 yards
- Three of the seven toughest holes on property are Par 3's (those three all have a higher bogey than birdie rate)
- Pendrith had two bogey free rounds and was clean for most of the week, but two of his bogey's did come on Par 3's (in fact, those two blips came within a three-hole stretch on Friday)
Par 4's (11): Average distance - 455 yards
- The two toughest holes on the course are Par 4's on the back-9. Hole #12 and #16 both have an over-par rate north of 23% and a sub-10% under-par rate
- Pendrith's Round 3 was highlighted by back-to-back eagles (Holes 5-6, the latter of which is a Par 4). For the week, he played those two holes at 8-under par
Par 5's (3): Average distance - 584 yards
- The three easiest holes on the course, all having an eagle rate of at least 2% and a sub-6% over-par rate
-Pendrith took full advantage, playing all three at at least 3-under par.
DFS Streak
The math works out about the same going in both directions. Which side you break ties with depends on the player -- front-to-back has a Par 5 surrounded by Par 4's while back-to-front gives you access to a Par 3 (#17). You have a little more leeway going front-to-back (holes 8-11 all surrender their fair share of birdies while it's more of a condensed three hole stretch in the other direction with holes 17-18-1 being gettable), but you're talking a minor edge at best that is minimized due to the higher DFS scores that traditionally occur here.
PAST WINNERS
2024: Taylor Pendrith (-23, one clear of Ben Kohles)
2023: Jason Day (-23, one clear of Si-Woo Kim and Austin Eckroat)
2022: KH Lee (-26, one clear of Jordan Spieth)
2021: KH Lee (-25, three clear of Sam Burns)
2024: Taylor Pendrith (+8000)
- The Top 3 finishers all gained multiple strokes both around the green AND with the putter
- The Top 7 finishers all gained ground in Prox. 175-200
2023: Jason Day (+1800)
- The Top 6 in average driving distance all cashed top-25 paychecks
- Full game required: Eight of the top-10 finishers gained ground across the board for the week (the two who didn't, lost ARG)
2022: K.H. Lee (+10000)
Lee was T2 after Thursday after firing a 64 and then was one better as he came from behind on Sunday
#TeamNoPutt? There were seven golfers that gained 5+ strokes with the flat stick … only one finished better than 12th and their average finish was 22nd.
2021: K.H. Lee (+15000)
Lee shot 67 or better in all four rounds, allowing him to withstand some haymakers like a Friday 62 from Sam Burns and a 63 from Patton Kizzire on Sunday.
Only three of the top eight finishers gained fairways on the field.
The KH Lee Profile … Lee has won this thing in consecutive seasons, so why not take a look at exactly what he has done at a high level during those two seasons. Taking into account all rounds in 2021 and 2022, here are a few of the areas Lee gained strokes on the field in the majority of his rounds (not just at Byron Nelson, but overall):
Ball Striking (61%)
3-putt avoidance (59.8%)
Par 4 scoring, 450-500 yards (57.3%)
Fairways gained (56.9%)
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FIRST ROUND LEADERS
2024 First Round Leaders
63 - Matt Wallace (finished fourth for the week, but progressively got worse: 63-66-67-68)
64 - Seven way tie, Chesson Hadley (missed cut) and Taylor Pendrith were among those one-shot off the lead after Thursday
2023 First Round Leaders
60 - Seung-yul Noh (his only round in the 60's for the week, 14 shots worse on Friday)
63 - Dou Zeoheng (all over the place for the week: 63-70-64-67), Adam Scott (bookend 63's for the week, but 71-68 in the middle rounds)
2022 First Round Leaders
60 - Sebastian Munoz (his best round of the week by 6 strokes)
64 - Four way tie that included KH Lee (finished the event even stronger: 63 on Sunday)
2021 First Round Leaders
63 - Jordan Spieth (struggled after the strong start: 70-68-71) and JJ Spaun (struggled after the strong start: 69-72-73)
64 - Four way tie ... none of the top-6 on the final leaderboard were in the top-6 after Thursday
NOTES
We’ve now seen TPC Craig Ranch for four years on TOUR and a verdict has been reached: It’s easy. Not the easiest, but close. Just birdies and eagles everywhere. In its debut as a TOUR course in 2021, TPC Craig Ranch gave up the most birdies of any course that year along with the fourth-most eagles. It was also the track with the four highest average scrambling rate as well; even if you miss greens par will be saved 66% of the time. It all makes sense statistically. Players hit more fairways here than average, hit more GIRs, drive the ball farther, and three-putt less.
I got some inside info from the course this year that the set up will feature grown out rough unlike other years. It won’t stop all the scoring but it may play slightly more difficult this year. Instead of -23 the winner score may end up -20.
Rowlett Creek runs throughout the course and will test the field to either lay up or try and clear the hazards on about half the holes, but since it doesn’t provide too much difficulty from the fairway “lay up” should be stricken from the record for a week.
With the way the holes are laid out, expect a larger-than-normal amount of approach shots from 175 yards and beyond. All three par 5s measure between 547 and 569 yards, and three of the par 3s are at least 216 yards. There are seven holes immediately where you’ll encounter approaches in that range. In two years, over 50% of approach shots have come from 175+ yards.
Beyond that, there are six par 4s over 450 yards, with another two under 360 yards. No. 14 is drivable by most of the field but with some risk, which we want from short par 4s. It’s a slight right-to-left drive guarded by bunkers to the right and a massive water hazard to the left. Expect a lot of the field to bail out into the right greenside bunkers and be forced to get it up and down for birdie. The field is making eagle at only a 1.5% clip while the birdie rate is a staggering 43%.
No. 6 plays 361 yards, but with no hazard area, some of the bigger hitters have given it a go from the box but it’s just a tad too long to get to. It’s 341 yards to the front of the green with bunkers situated on each side of the putting surface. Like No. 14, it’s slightly right-to-left from the tee box and a favorable bounce could sneak a drive between the front and right side bunker and squirt onto the putting surface.
Per Fantasy National, the best players in the field on par 4s under 350 yards over the past 50 rounds are Hayden Springer, Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Harry Hall, Trevor Cone, Ben Griffin, Keith Mitchell, Alex Smalley, Matt McCarty, and Taylor Montgomery.
Some Random Stats from TPC Craig Ranch in 2023
66.70 scrambling percentage, the second easiest of any course
88.31 percentage of greens hit inside 125 yards, the fourth easiest
94 total holes outs, the fourth most of any course
26.48 birdie or better percentage inside 125 yards, the fourth highest
2,021 total birdies at TPC Craig Ranch, the third most of any course
60 total eagles at TPC Craig Ranch, the fifth most of any course
Running those numbers through a super-processor, it’ll spit out El Cardonal at Diamanté, TPC Summerlin, PGA West Stadium Course, Sea Island Seaside Course, and TPC Scottsdale as the courses which match some of the same numbers. Not positive those results are super helpful. Either way, here are the SG: TOTAL/ROUND leaders from only those courses since the beginning of 2023.
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While that may be helpful and point somewhat in the right direction, I think looking at the combination of results from Farmers, Mexico, Houston, and Detroit make far more sense since we’ve seen so much crossover success between those courses the past few years.
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PICKS
Ben An — I understand getting past -20 requires making a few putts and I’m picking the player least likely to make any of those. But here I am. A sucker. An has as rediscovered his elite T2G game have early season struggles, and maybe getting to tackle an easy course (and one with a lot of hole outs) is exactly what he needs to push him over the top.
Alejandro Tosti — You have to understand the deal you’re making when you invest any money on Tosti: The missed short putts are the reason you’re getting him at triple digits. But he’s inching awfully close to a win. Two top 10s with another T12 in his past three starts at a course where he can surely take advantage of his length off the tee. Tosti missed the cut in his first try at Craig Ranch a year ago yet still gained +6.6 T2G in those two rounds. He just happened to lose 6.2 on the greens. With the may he’s ball striking at the moment, he doesn’t need to gain a ton to contend or even win, just a few should suffice.
Sami Valimaki — There straight Top 20s for the Wacky Finn and now gets a course which is perfectly suited to mitigate his struggles off the tee at tighter courses. Valimaki’s second in this field in approach over the past 24 rounds and has gained with his putter in right of his past nine starts.