2025 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks, Bets, Course Preview
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QUICK BETS
Berger +2500
Akshay +8000
BOMBS
Cole +11000 (8 Places)
Nico +12500 (8 Places)
EURO
Guido +5000
2025 Charles Schwab Challenge
Field: 135 Players
Cut: Top 65 & Ties Make The Cut
First Tee: Thursday, May 22
Defending Champion: Davis Riley
Scottie Scheffler headlines the field and is joined by Hideki Matsuyama, Mav McNealy, Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Robert MacIntyre, Brian Harman, Daniel Berger, JJ Spaun, Akshay Bhatia, Aaron Rai, Tom Hoge, Tom Kim, Andrew Novak, Daniel Berger, and defending champ Davis Riley.
HOT LINKS
Charles Schwab Picks, Bets, One and Done + PGA Championship Recap
Charles Schwab Picks, Research, Betting Sleepers, Course Preview
KEY STATS
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 4s Gained: 350-400 Yards
Fairways Gained
Proximity 200+ Yards
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DREAM GOLF GIVEAWAY
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COURSE
Course: Colonial CC
Par: 70
Yardage: 7,289
Greens: Bentgrass
Holes With Water: 6
Bunkers: 84
Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. Feet
The 2023 renovation included every aspect of the golf course, including all new greens, hydronics installed, new bunkers, irrigation and drainage. Bermudagrass was sodded on 118 acres and greens were seeded with bentgrass
Fairway landing area widths are 25-30 yards.
Par 3's (4): Average distance - 210 yards
- Riley birdied at least one of the Par 3's in each of the final three days
- These are the four most often par'd holes on the course, all over 68%
Par 4's (12): Average distance - 436 yards
- Riley had a bogey free Round 2 -- he had at least one bogey on a Par 4 in every other round
- The two toughest scoring holes on property are Par 4's on the front-9 (holes 5 and 9, both holding an over-par rate north of 23%)
Par 5's (2): Average distance - 610 yards
- Riley scored under par on both Par 5's just one for the week (Thursday)
- Both play easy, but Hole #1 is 58 yards shorter and carries an eagle rate that is 4x Hole #11
DFS Streak
Going back-to-front is going to factor into my decision making this week. The first two holes on the course are the easiest two and the back-9 doesn't exactly present a major challenge with its finishing kick (Holes 16-17-18 all have a birdie rate over 16%). When playing this course in order, you have to deal with the second toughest hole (#9) if you want to have a streak cross over the 9's. Even if you can manage to be part of the 15.3% that get that hole (5.5% double-or-worse rate, so a cautious approach is often smart), the holes on either side of it play a tick over par. If there's a week to use this strategy as more than a tie-breaker, this would appear to be it.
WINNERS
2024: Davis Riley (-14, five clear of Scottie Scheffler/Keegan Bradley)
2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8, playoff win over Adam Schenk)
2022: Sam Burns (-9, playoff win over Scottie Scheffler)
2021: Jason Kokrak (-14, two clear of Jordan Spieth)
Each of these past five winners entered with form on the greens
’24 Riley: Positive SG: PUTT in five of seven previous starts.
’23 Grillo: Positive SG: PUTT in five of his six previous starts.
’22 Burns: Gained over four strokes putting in three of four measured events prior (continued it by gaining five in his win at this event)
’21 Kokrak: Gained strokes putting in each of his three events prior (and in five of six events, a run that included the fourth-best putting week of his career)
’20 Berger: Gained strokes putting in each of his three events prior (a stretch that included the second-best putting week of his career … this trend continued, even through the COVID schedule disruption)
’19 Na: Gained strokes putting in each of his three events prior
Past Winner Notes
2024: Davis Riley (+30000)
- The top-7 gainers off the tee and their finishing positions (in order, starting with the best OTT): 2-32-37-37-4-1-2
- Stars and scrubs ... of the top-6 DK scorers, two cost over $11,000 (Scheffler and Morikawa) and three were sub-$6,000 (Riley, Pierceson Coody, and Hayden Buckley)
2023: Emiliano Grillo (+6000)
- Grillo was the second best putter for the week (+7.4) -- five of the top-7 putters for the week finished with at least a share of 12th place
- Each of the top-5 finishers gained strokes putting from 25+ feet (three of them lost in the 10-15 bucket that is normally our predictive range)
2022: Sam Burns (+3000)
- The top-3 finishers (Burns, Scheffler, and Brandon Todd) all gained through the bag. Tony Finau did as well -- he was one of three to tie for fourth.
- Only two of the top-20 finishers lost ground around the green on the field for the week
2021: Jason Kokrak (+5000)
- Four of the top-8 finishers were among the seven best putters for the week, all gaining at least 5.5 strokes with the flat stick
- Eight of the top-13 finishers were shorter than field average for the week off the tee
2024 First Round Leaders
65 - Charley Hoffman (followed it up with a 75-74 over the next two rounds)
66 - 5-way tie that included Riley (66-64-66 opening before cruising with a Sunday 70)
2023 First Round Leaders
62 - Harry Hall (17 shots better during the first two days than the last two after the greens firmed)
65 - Harris English (Sunday 76 doomed him -- Grillo was eight shots better)
2022 First Round Leaders
66 - 8-way tie that included Scheffler (10 shots better pre-cut than post, Burns was seven better than him on Sunday)
2021 First Round Leaders
63 - Jordan Spieth (63-66-66 before a Sunday 73 on firm greens, a staple of this event), Sergio Garcia (his best round of the week by five strokes)
65 - Jason Kokrak (70 or better in all four rounds), Erik Compton (peaked too early: 65-68-70-73)
NOTES
Colonial has hosted the longest-running tournament on the PGA Tour. Every May since 1946, the world's greatest golfers travel to Fort Worth to compete in the Colonial National Invitational, known today as the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Playing just a hair over 7,200 yards, strategy from the tee box will prove to be far more important than a standard week. Because, really, that’s a fake 7,200 — the course stacks length in its par 3s (all four at least 190 yards) and a three-shot, 635-yard par 5. It’s like the bizarro Riviera. Take out those five holes, and the field is left with nine par 4s measuring less than 445 yards. Regardless of driving distance numbers, those holes are scoreable for the entire field. Of those nine, seven come in at 430 yards or less, five of which annually play under par.
With its classical design, Colonial is one of the regular PGA TOUR courses where all skill sets appear to have an equal opportunity to win. It’s akin to Harbour Town (Heritage), TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS), Sedgefield (Wyndham), East Lake (TOUR Championship) and Waialae (Sony Open) in that way. Distance will always be an advantage, but its impact is mitigated at Colonial.
Looking at past leaderboards, the top-five finishers almost exclusively share the trait of gaining a little off the tee, slightly less around the greens and a WHOLE LOT on approach and putting.
You’d think with below-average-sized greens, that chipping would play a major factor. That just doesn’t materialize at the top of the leaderboard, though. While a few well-timed up and downs will be critical, a great week from off the green means you’re simply not generating enough birdie tries to actually contend. Pin stalk with short irons, make putts, hoist a novelty check on Sunday.
Additionally, it’s worth noting very few eagles are made at Colonial. Hole No. 1 is really the only plausible eagle hole (outside of random approaches finding the bottom of the cup from 137 yards out). Even though it’s reachable to some in two shots, No. 1 still hovers around a 2% eagle rate historically. General DraftKings strategy points to distance as it typically leads to more eagle opportunities, which are worth eight DKFP as opposed to three, but past results show that isn’t the case at Colonial. That’s why there’s an over-emphasis on the 100-125 proximity range. While it may not be applicable to every player in the field for their approaches, with a good drive, that is the range where the pins will be most accessible on the scoring holes. Ditto at the longer par 5 (No. 11) for most of the field.
By The Numbers Holes: 3/4/5
+0.49 — Average over par the Horrible Horseshoe has played since 2003, toughest 3-5 hole stretch of any non-major venue that has been played at least eight times
PICKS
Daniel Berger — Accuracy, approach, and short game have been as good as any non-Scottie player in the field. Strangely, the putter has lapsed over his past three starts. That was after gaining in seven straight dating back to late January. He’s won here against a stronger field in the past and he’s one of the few players at the top of the the board who excels at keeping out of danger.
Akshay Bhatia — He won in Texas last year and despite a recent slump, he’s spiked enough with this approach to believe he can match up the accuracy, irons, putting trifecta. You’ll rarely find this much talent this far down the betting board.
Nico Echavarria —It’s a perfect time for Nico to hit a course which prioritizes approach and putting over chipping. Nico’s gained over 4.2 strokes on approach the past two starts and has seen his accuracy rebound in those starts after a slightly downturns after the West Coast swing. He’s one of the few players with the irons/putting upside to challenge anyone in this field if it lines up. We saw him out run Morikawa and Xander in Japan late last season and has a pair of scones since at courses with a similar profile to Colonial (Sony & RSM).