2025 American Express Open, Bets, Preview
Early American Express Quick Bets
Si Woo Kim 40
C. Hoffman 200 (With 8 Places)
Montgomrey 275 (With 8 Places)
Manassero 300 (With 10 Places)
Kizzire 350 (With 8 Places)
Hisatsune 400 (With 10 Places)
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2025 American Express
Field: 156 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties after 54 Holes
Lineup Lock: Thursday, January 19
Defending Champ: Nick Dunlap
The American Express is a three-course rotation. Everyone in the field will play each course once — Nicklaus Tournament Course (NT), Stadium Course (SC), and La Quinta Country Club (LQ). The cut will be Top 65 and ties after the three rounds and the final round will be contested at the Pete Dye designed Stadium Course.
The players are back in the continental US for the first time in 2025 and to celebrate they’ve decided we need a non-celebrity Pro-Am. Even though only 52 pros will be on the course each day during the first three rounds, each of them has an AM partner and will play as a group of four. So, these rounds take way longer than the normal, already incredibly lengthy rounds.
Unless production has changed over the winter this event only has dedicated cameras at the Stadium Course. Long time readers will certainly remember Adam Hadwin’s chase for a 59 at the La Quinta Course in 2017. Well, they remember it because the network finally got a camera over to follow him on his 17th hole. And yes, he did shoot 59 that day. Maybe it’s a play to keep the boomers comfortable; there’s really no difference between this and 1992 coverage. Change can be scary.
Beyond the long days and horrendous TV coverage there’s also no shot tracker/Strokes Gained data outside of the Pete Dye Stadium Course. The more notable names tend to have their Stadium Course round in round three for Saturday TV window.
Now there is one benefit to this Pro-Am versus the one in a few weeks at Pebble Beach. Outside of Carlton from Fresh Prince and maybe George Lopez’ stunt double, no one has likely heard of any of these amateurs before — unless you’re the guy deep diving cheap CFOs in your Fortune 500 Fantasy Leagues.
14 of the past 16 champions have played at least one of the first two Hawaii events to start the year. Since 2007, seven of last 18 American Express winners made this event the site of their first win, with, then amateur, Nick Dunlap accomplishing the feat a year ago.
Worth noting, this field is pretty stacked for the caliber of tournament. Especially with two elevated events, Genesis, and Pebble Beach all coming the next month. But it tends to be the same bigger names who head to PGA West every year. For 2025: Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Jason Day, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Si WOOOO Kim, Justin Thomas, Cam Young and Will Zalatoris are all in the field at AMEX. Scottie Scheffler was supposed to play, but he remains out with his hand injury.
Matteo Manassero, Victor Perez, and Antoine Rozner are all making their first PGA starts of 2025, coming over from Europe earlier than expected. Jake Knapp & Michael Thorbjornsen are both currently listed in the field despite their WDs at Sony a week ago.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Opportunities Gained
Good Drives Gained
Eagles Gained
Mayo’s Key Stats Rankings powered by FantasyNational.com
Course(s)
Course: Stadium Course at PGA West (SC)
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,187
Greens: Poa overseed
Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 90+
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 7
Shotlink: Yes
Streak finder: If you're getting cute, front-to-back holds the slight edge, but not sure it will matter. Hole 8 (51.8% birdie-or-better) is the easiest on the course, but Holes 9-10 are more difficult than average. That's slight better than Holes 18-1-2, a stretch that also features only one favorable hole (Hole 2: 28.6% birdie-or-better)
Par 3 (4): Average distance -- 188 yards
The three hardest holes are all Par 3's (Holes 6-13-17), all with a double-or-worse rate of at least 5%
Par 4 (10): Average distance -- 415 yards
- Be careful on the front 9 -- there are six holes on the course with a bogey rate of over 13% and three of them are Par 4's on the front (Holes 1-3-9)
Par 5 (4): Average distance -- 571 yards
- The three longest are the three easiest on the course (three of these Par 5's have an eagles rate north of 2%)
Course: Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West (TC)
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,147
Greens: Poa overseed
Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 90+
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 5
Shotlink: No
Streak finder: There will be streaks , but not many at either turn. Holes 8-9-17-18 are all among the six most difficult holes on the course.
Par 3 (4): Average distance -- 185 yards
- Three of the four holes that hold a bogey rate over 13.5% are Par 3's
Par 4 (10): Average distance -- 422 yards
- Hole 18 is the most bogeyed Par 4 and the second most bogeyed hole on the course (14.8%, a rate that is barely below the birdie rate: 15.2%)
Par 5 (4): Average distance -- 544 yards
- In holes 4-11, you get three Par 5's and they are the three easiest holes on the course (that eight-hole stretch includes the five easiest on the course). All four Par 5s have an eagle rate over 4%.
Course: LA Quinta CC (LQ)
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,060
Greens: Poa Trivialis /Perennial ryegrass overseed
Average Green Size: 4,773 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 82
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 7
Shotlink: No
Streak finder: No edge to be had ... Holes 17-18-1 all have a birdie rate over 18%, Holes 9-10-11 have a lower average score than Holes 17-18-1 thanks to Hole 11 being the 3rd easiest on the course.
Par 3 (4): Average distance -- 195 yards
- Take your medicine: four holes had a 70% par rate or higher and they were all Par 3's
Par 4 (10): Average distance -- 415 yards
- Get your scoring in early: the three easiest Par 4's all come on the front (Holes 1-4-9)
Par 5 (4): Average distance -- 533 yards
- The four easiest holes on the course with consecutive holes (5-6) owning a higher eagle rate than bogey rate
Past Winners
2024: Nick Dunlap -29
2023: Jon Rahm -27
2022 Hudson Swafford -23
2021: Si Woo Kim -23
2020: Andrew Landry -26
2019: Adam Long -26
2024: Nick Dunlap (+30000)
- Fired a Round 3 60 (10 birdies and an eagle), he was five shots better than Bezuidenhout on that day after entering the day up just one stroke on him)
- Bogey on #6 in Round 1 ... only one over-par hole the rest of the way (three eagles)
- Across the weekend (La Quinta and Stadium), he birdied 8 of 18 back-9 holes
2023: Jon Rahm (+750)
- Hot starts in both weekend rounds (-4 through 5 holes on Saturday, birdie-birdie start to Sunday)
- Final 3 rounds: 2 bogeys (both came on Par 3's)
- Across two weekend rounds at the Stadium Course, he went under par (in at least one of the rounds) on 11 of the 18 holes
2022: Hudson Swafford (+15000)
- One par on the back-9 Sunday (birdie-birdie-birdie-bogey-birdie-bogey-eagle-birdie-par)
- Consistent -- birded Holes 2-5-6-8-12 in both Stadium rounds
- Picked up 6 shots on Sunday on Lee Hodges and 9 on Paul Barjon
- Didn't need to be flawless -- won a shootout despite two rounds with three bogeys
2021: Si Woo Kim (+6000)
- Bogey free in three rounds at the Stadium Course (17 birdies and an eagle)
- Dominated Stadium Hole #5 (eagle-birdie-birde) and that was in the middle of a tournament deciding run on Sunday (Holes 4-11: six birdies)
2020: Andrew Landry (+20000)
- Gave Abe Ancer a shot (four back entering Sunday) with a bogey streak on Sunday (Holes 13-15) ... the struggles weren't predictable, he was -2 on those three holes in the other Stadium round (Thursday)
Had a birdie streak in all four rounds
First Round Leaders
2024 ROUND 1
62 - Zach Johnson (LQ) (his only round better than 68)
62 - Alex Noren (LQ) (his only round better than 68)
63 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout (LQ) (four shots worse on Friday)
64 - 9-way tie that included Rico Hoey (missed the cut) and Nick Dunlap (winner)
2023 ROUND 1 (5 of top-10 on final leaderboard were within 2 shots of Round 1 lead)
62 - Davis Thompson (LQ) (runner-up, 10 shots better Thurs-Fri than the weekend)
64 - Jon Rahm (LQ) (winner, opened with consecutive 64's)
64 - Taylor Montgomery (LQ) (his best round of the week, worst came on Friday with a 69)
64 - Matti Schmid (SC) (couldn't sustain it, posted a 72 on Friday)
64 - Sam Burns (SC) (all over the place: 64-70-64-68)
64 - Tyler Duncan (NT) (disappointed with consecutive 71's over the weekend)
2022 ROUND 1
62 - Lee Hodges (LQ) (all over the place: 62-72-64-70, he was the best on property in Rounds 1 and 3, only 16 golfers were worse on Friday)
62 - Patrick Cantlay (LQ) (only round better than 68)
64 - Cam Young (LQ) (only round better than 68)
64 - KH Lee (SC) (only round better than 71)
Notes
Historically, stacking La Quinta and the Nicklaus Course for single-round showdown provided an easier path to green screens. But over the past few years, the Stadium Course started to play just as easy. While low scores are available at all three tracks, there are far more landmines at SC with over 90 bunkers and seven holes with water hazards spread across the grounds, coupled with the tiny greens.
The forced layups, a common trait of Pete Dye designs, have the Stadium Course posting an average drive of 278 yards — shorter than the average PGA TOUR event. The Stadium Course also sees the fewest drives over 300 yards during the season at just 10%. As a result, the Stadium Course historically rates among the lowest in hit green percentage on second shots into Par 5s.
Not to say bombers won’t have success in the desert. Rahm, Vegas and Swafford all have victories over the past decade. But, where bombers have a distinct advantage at some courses — much like last week’s Sony Open — the power advantage off the tee is mitigated this week. Hence, Si Woo, Landry, Long, Dufner, Haas, Gay and Wilson all hoisting novelty checks in their careers. This has opened the American Express up to extreme long shots winning every other year. The AMEX is a “Piece of Shit Fucking Setup. Putting Contest”, after all.
With prevalent water and sand plus an extra round at the Stadium Course, finding the fairway becomes critical, despite not having one definitive prototypical skill set to target. Simply sorting by fairways gained can help guide you in the proper direction, but that won’t tell the entire story. Bombers will inherently see their accuracy increase over their yearly baseline as they won’t be hitting as many drivers off the tee, and if they are wayward with the big stick, at least they’ll be closer to the hole for an easier recovery if the ball stays out of the hazards.
Since 2020, the field has made birdie or better 27% of the time when in the fairway at the Stadium Course, the highest Birdie or Better percentage from the fairway of any tournament on TOUR. It’s the only course with a Birdie or Better percentage from inside 125 yards greater than 30%. And, if you missed the fairway, as long as you weren’t in a hazard of any kind, it didn’t limit scoring too much. The field averaged 35-feet out of the rough, marking the closest Rough Proximity of any course. From the rough, at the top end, players made birdie or better 22% of the time on the Stadium Course in 2020. There’s essentially no rough at any of these courses with the Pro-Am. Can’t have ams hacking out of PGA rough and playing 10 hour rounds.
Scoring on Par 5s is essential. It’s pretty simple for the entire field, though. Since 2012, scoring on Par 5s at the American Express has been the easiest of any event on the PGA TOUR, playing more than 3,000 strokes under par than the next closest event.
2025 Smallest Avg. Greens by sq. ft.
3,500 – Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach)
3,700 – Harbour Town (RBC Heritage)
4,300 – TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude)
4,773 – La Quinta CC (American Express)
5,000 – PGA West Stadium (American Express)
NC actually has much larger putting surfaces than the others at 7,000 sq. ft. yet still ranked inside the top five of course on TOUR in fewest three putts in 2023.
For years, the putting surfaces were officially listed as Bermudagrass, despite it being dormant at this time of year with Poa being what the field is actually putting on. They officially changed that in 2024 on the course info sheet. The greens are overseeded with either Ryegrass or Poa Trivialis and historically, they run on the slower side of average; the Nicklaus Course ranked inside the top five of courses with the fewest three-putts in 2019, 2020, and 2022
Only 5 players have won in their tournament debut: Nick Dunlap (2024), Adam Long (2019), Jhonny Vegas (2011), Charley Hoffman (2007), Arnold Palmer (1960).
it can’t go unmentioned that this is a Pete Dye track. So, here are the SG: Total/round leaders on Pete Dye courses over their past 36 rounds. Reminder: Only two of the four rounds are contested at the Dye Stadium Course.
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Picks
AMEX Picks, Bets, One and Done, Dubai Preview + Sony Recap
Si Woo Kim — Si Woo’s a former champ with three Top 11 finishes in his four career starts at AMEX. And there were a lot of positives to take away from is missed cut at Sony last week. Despite only playing two rounds he still finished 8th T2G, easily the most per round of anyone in the field. He just happened to lose 6 strokes on the green over those two rounds. While awful putting isn’t new to Si Woo it would be at PGA West: Over his 4 appearances he’s never lost strokes putting to the field.
Charley Hoffman —It’s been over 15 years since his win at PGA West, but there are a few signs pointing back to Chuck in 2025. While not an every year occurrence, he tends to roll it on these greens more successfully than most other courses. The last time we saw him contend was a year ago on another desert course in Phoenix. He was second to only JJ Spaun at Sony in ball striking. Yes, better than Nick Taylor. I’m searching for long shots, so a geezer who’s striking it well in this immediate moment with a ton of course success is a go.