2024 ONE AND DONE
Now that normal have remembered golf exists, the One and Done has started filling rapidly. Over 500 joined on Monday and we haven’t began sending emails out to all previous players yet. So this is one of the last chances to ensure you have a spot reserved since it’s nearing half full. At this pace, it will be filled by the weekend.
JOIN: $800K PRIZE POOL 2024 GOLF ONE AND DONE ($200 per Entry; 5-Max Entries)
GET A FREE ENTRY!!!!!!
Two ways:
If you have an entry already or are going to get one soon, tweet a screen shot to me and you’ll be in a draw for another entry, but this time, FOR FREE!!!!
Per the usual SUBSCRIBE (and turn on auto downloads), Rate 5 Stars, and review the PME Audio Podcast. Do it on both Apple & Spotify and get two shots to win!
Apple: http://bit.ly/PMEiTunes
Spotify: https://goo.gl/VboemH
Not one did James (degenerate75) come on to talk through Sentry DrafKings with me, we both went into One and Done strategy detail if you are looking for it.
WATCH: 2024 ONE AND DONE STRATEGY
Sentry BETS
Somehow, this will be the 10th year Geoff and I have done the Golf show together. In that time we’ve gone from smoking a joint before recording in an alley in Toronto to having five kids between us. I want to thank every one who has tune in over that time as it’s been a real pleasure to grow the show and community with you all. If you’ve never done it, please leave an audio rating and review. I have a contract coming up, and more of these will ensure more shows in the future! Plus, there’s the OAD giveaway along with it.
I’ll actully try to hit some winning bets this year too! Try.
WATCH: 2024 The Sentry Picks, Bets, Preview
Morikawa 15/1
Finau 30/1
List 90/1 (With 5 Places)
Kitayama 125/1 (With 5 Places)
Golf Futures
Finau to win Mexico Open 18/1
Collin Morikawa — Last year, Morikawa was kind enough and stick a giant wad of cash In my pocket Saturday night. I didn’t realize it was attached to fishing line and he yanked it back Sunday afternoon and laughed as I chased it down the street. With a six stroke lead entering the final round, Morikawa imploded on the back nine and allowed a scorching Jon Rahm to not only catch up but win by three. Morikawa sets up exactly the same this year: Great wedges and 200+ proximity, better putter on slower greens. Except now there’s no Rahm to ruin the party. It’s time for Collin to get us our money back.
Tony Finau — I can’t believe, of all people, it’s me who is now touting Top 4 Tony. He’s really held true of that nickname too. After going MIA following the TOUR Championship, Finau returned for the Hero and Mixed event in December finishing, obviously, T4 in both events. But at these odds, in a 59-man field, they’re intriguing. Those T4s show an extended layoff means nothing for Finau, and golf outside the continental USA has always been his strength with two of career wins coming on the similarly slow greens in Mexico and Puerto Rico. Something which has translated reasonably well to Kapalua; Finau has posted two Top 10s in four starts, including a T7 last year.
Tony Finau (Mexico) — I’m somehow digging Finau so much I bet him in another market too. On Bet365, there’s a “To Win PGA Tour event” market under “futures” and they’re offering all last year’s winners of tournaments already to repeat. While most of the odds are shit, Finau is somehow 18/1 to win in Mexico again. Since he and Rahm were the only two good players to show up for the event, there’s a chance sans Rahm, Finau goes off shorter than the 8/1 he was a year ago… if he shows up. Finau may not go to Mexico to defend his title and the Bet365 doesn’t need to refund that bet. They did with Tom Kim Wyndham futures in the same market a year ago when he didn’t play, though. Or you can just complain online and try and get your money back. Whatever works I suppose.
Kurt Kitayama — Kurt hasn’t played since a T16 at the Zozo in October, and that was after taking almost two months off. But picking Kitayama never had anything to do with his current form or consistency. Of which he has none. If really just a hunch on a course fit based on his profile. All four of his career wins, between PGA, DP, and Asian Tours have come on wind-influenced, coastal courses. Granted, Oman and Bay Hill played in much tougher conditions with the elements the years he won, but looking this deep downtime board, finding a an aggressive irons player who can convert a lot of birdie chances (13th in Opps Gained over the past 100 rounds; 2nd in putting from 10-15 feet) at a course which mitigates his accuracy issues with fairways wider than runways.
Luke List — List won during the swing, and looks to have momentarily stopped the bleeding with his putter. This isn’t to say he’s a good putter now. He’s not. But we never needed him to good, just not the nut low. Over the past 100 rounds List ranks last in this field from 5’-10’ and 10’-15’ putting. That almost seems impossible. Turns out, he really was that bad. However, in October, List hired Cameron McCormick and switched to a claw putting grip. He won the following week at the Sanderson Farms and gained strokes putting in three of four measured swing season events. All we’ve ever asked is for List to not putt himself out of tournaments, and he seems to be doing it at the moment.
Comp Courses
I’ve always mentioned Augusta National and TPC Deere Run as comps because of the amount of uneven lies once you get off the tee box. That remains true, but those are really the only similar features. I’m not sure why, maybe some course nerd can let me know, but players who’ve fared well at Detroit CC have a good record here. Morikawa, Cantlay, Finau, and Fowler all have history here, even Cam Davis, Tom Kim and Cam Young fared well in their debuts. Not saying Taylor Moore is guaranteed to light it up this week, but it’s another angle to explore if you need one.
20% OFF TOOLS, STATS & LINEUP BUILDER AT FANTASY NATIONAL
Notes
Field: 59 players
Cut: No Cut
Lineup Lock: Thursday, January 4
Stats & Model
Video Breakdown of stats and building model
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Par 4s Gained
Proximity Gained 100-125 Yards
Opportunities Gained
Par 5s Gained
Mayo’s Key Stats powered by FantasyNational.com
(Rory Is NOT Playing)
The Course
Course: Kapalua (Plantation)
Par: 73
Yardage: 7,596
Greens: Bermuda
The course was designed by Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore. It first opened in 1991 and has since undergone some renovations to enhance its playability and aesthetics. The course is situated on the slopes of the West Maui Mountains, offering breathtaking views of the Pacific Ocean and the neighboring islands of Molokai and Lanai.
The Plantation Course is known for its wide fairways and large, undulating greens. The layout takes advantage of the natural terrain, incorporating elevation changes and strategically placed hazards. The course is a Par 73 and measures a shade under 7,600 yards, featuring several memorable holes, including the Par 5 18th hole, one of the longest finishing holes on the PGA Tour. The 17th hole is notable as well. The challenging 550 yard Par 4, is annually the most difficult hole on the course.
Past Champs
2023: Jon Rahm -27
2022: Cam Smith -34
2021: Harris English -25
2020: Justin Thomas -14
2019: Xander Schauffele -23
2023 Sentry Strokes Gained
DraftKings
Adam Hadwin ($7,000) - I don’t love Hadwin enough to bet him, but he makes for an intriguing DraftKings play. First off, no one is playing him, that’s always a bonus. Secondly, his particular set of skills may actually translate pretty well to Kapalua: He’s an assassin with his wedges and makes a ton of putts. Last time I reviewed my notes, making a ton of putts was helpful to advancing up the leaderboard. Hopefully the course will make up for his lack of distance since tee shots all tend to roll to the same spots.
Vince Norrman ($6,500)
Normann got himself in this event with a victory at the Barbasol most of the top players were off competing in the Scottish Open. It’s an AST event win, who really cares? But in the midst of the lead up to the Ryder Cup, Normann bested most of the best Euros and internationals in Ireland. Just because you didn’t notice, doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. Even with the world’s elite in attendance at Kapalua, the Swede will be one of the premier drivers in the field, and if we can catch him on a spike putting week (Norrman’s gained three more putting in two of his last five starts; lost over 6 in of two them as well!) He can do some DraftKings damage by generating more eagle chances than most the field. Just pray he can convert them.
WATCH: Sentry DraftKings Picks, Strategy, Lineups
James actually pointed out something (i think, at least) super sharp about using the tools at Fantasy National to help gauge ownership early in the week using the ratio of “Favorites” vs “Lineups Generated.” Since very few people generate lineups early in the week, there’s a chance a few members can skew the entire “lineups generated” percentage if they lock in a player or two. Look here…
20% OFF TOOLS, STATS & LINEUP BUILDER AT FANTASY NATIONAL
While it’s too early to trust the “Calculated Ownership” being the event doesn’t start for 2 more days, you can see both Spieth and Rose simply aren’t being spit out in lineups so far. But with so many people interested in playing them in from the “favorite” percentage, you can expect them to greatly exceed their “LU Gen%” by week’s end.
This is more for people who build really early in the week and never really check back once the information gets better closer to lock.
— PM
PS I’m probably going to be doing my longer write ups for golf in the newsletter now. LMK different things you’d like to see in here.