2024 American Express Picks, Preview
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FIELD
156 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties after 54 Holes
Lineup Lock: Thursday, January 19
Defending Champ: Jon Rahm
Triggered about the TV coverage the last two weeks in Hawaii? Oh, you’re in for it at PGA West. Finding your player on the screen at the 2024 American Express when you want to is tougher than the last page Where’s Waldo. Only because you literally will not be able to find them since the footage won’t exist.
The TOUR is back in the continental US for the first time this year, and to celebrate, they’ve decided we need a non-celebrity Pro-Am, with three separate courses, and a cut taking place after 54 Holes. And yes, this event only have dedicated cameras at one of the courses. Incredible stuff, truly. Maybe it’s a play to keep the boomers comfortable; there’s really no difference between this coverage and 1992 coverage.
Beyond the long days due of the Pro-Am and horrendous TV coverage there’s also no shot tracker/Strokes Gained data outside of the Pete Dye Stadium Course. Each player gets a crack at each of the three venues the first three days, then the cut will be best 65 scores (and ties) among the 156-player field. Expect the more notable players to have their Stadium Course round in round three for Saturday TV window.
Now there is one benefit to this Pro-Am versus the one in a few weeks at Pebble Beach. Outside of Carlton from Fresh Prince and potentially Ray Romano’s stunt double, no one has likely heard of any of these amateurs before — unless you spent the early part of the pandemic having auto-buys for Fortune 500 board of director NFT drops. Point is, we’re not getting cut aways mid-round to Jib, the COO of Sanderson Farms whereas the broadcast is obligated break down Larry The Cable Guy swing in slow-motion at Pebble Beach. This friends, should be consider a win.
14 of the past 15 champions have played at least one of the first two Hawaii events to start the year. Since 2007, six of 17 American Express winners made this event the site of their first win, with Adam Long the last to do it in 2019.
Worth noting, this field is pretty stacked for the caliber of tournament. Especially with two elevated events, Torrey Pines, and Phoenix all coming the next month. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is joined by Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Sung-jae Im, Rickie Fowler, and Jason Day.
We’re getting some notable debuts in Palm Beach too. Shane Lowry is skipping the Middle East swing on the Euro Tour and starting his American journey early in 2024 to make his PGA West debut. Same goes for Min Woo Lee, who picked up two wins in fall between the DP World and Asian Tours (Macau & Australia). After failing to make the playoffs last year, Justin Thomas went into hibernation after the Ryder Cup and is finally resurfacing this week.
Then there’s Daniel Berger. No, he didn’t retire. Bergertime hasn’t been seen since the 2022 US Open because of a back injury. There shouldn’t be any expectations, especially after what we saw from Zalatoris and Woodland at the Sony, buts s a fan, I’m happy to see him back.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach
Opportunities Gained
Good Drives Gained
Eagles Gained
Mayo’s Key Stats Rankings powered by FantasyNational.com
HOW TO WIN
-Good Drives is a Good Start (all gained on the field in Driving yardage)
- 2023: Rahm was 5th best in Good Drives
- 2022: Swafford was 8th best in Good Drives
- 2021: Si Woo ranked 2nd best in Good Drives
-Par 5 scoring
- 2023: Xander was best (finished 3rd, two of the top 3 in Par 5s cashed top 3 paychecks)
- 2022: Three of the top four in SG: Par 5 cashed top 10's
- 2021: Kim and Ancer tied atop the SG: Par 5 list (1st and 5th overall finishes respectively)
No single profile of player...
- 2023: Rahm won despite being the worst putter of any top 25 finisher at the Stadium Course.
2022: Swafford was the 2nd best putter in the field at the Stadium Course on his way to the win
- 2022: Swafford was 5th worst in Proximity from 200+ at the Stadium Course.
2021: Kim was 9th best in Proximity from 200+ at the Stadium Course.
Course(s)
Course: Stadium Course at PGA West (SC)
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,187
Greens: Poa overseed
Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 90+
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 7
Shotlink: Yes
Streak finder: If you're getting cute, front-to-back holds the slight edge, but not sure it will matter. Hole 8 (51.8% birdie-or-better) is the easiest on the course, but Holes 9-10 are more difficult than average. That's slight better than Holes 18-1-2, a stretch that also features only one favorable hole (Hole 2: 28.6% birdie-or-better)
Par 3 (4): Average distance -- 188 yards
The three hardest holes are all Par 3's (Holes 6-13-17), all with a double-or-worse rate of at least 5%
Par 4 (10): Average distance -- 415 yards
- Be careful on the front 9 -- there are six holes on the course with a bogey rate of over 13% and three of them are Par 4's on the front (Holes 1-3-9)
Par 5 (4): Average distance -- 571 yards
- The three longest are the three easiest on the course (three of these Par 5's have an eagles rate north of 2%)
Course: Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West (TC)
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,147
Greens: Poa overseed
Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 90+
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 5
Shotlink: No
Streak finder: There will be streaks , but not many at either turn. Holes 8-9-17-18 are all among the six most difficult holes on the course.
Par 3 (4): Average distance -- 185 yards
- Three of the four holes that hold a bogey rate over 13.5% are Par 3's
Par 4 (10): Average distance -- 422 yards
- Hole 18 is the most bogeyed Par 4 and the second most bogeyed hole on the course (14.8%, a rate that is barely below the birdie rate: 15.2%)
Par 5 (4): Average distance -- 544 yards
- In holes 4-11, you get three Par 5's and they are the three easiest holes on the course (that eight-hole stretch includes the five easiest on the course). All four Par 5s have an eagle rate over 4%.
Course: LA Quinta CC (LQ)
Par: 72
Yardage: 7,060
Greens: Poa Trivialis /Perennial ryegrass overseed
Average Green Size: 4,773 sq. ft.
Number of Sand Bunkers: 82
Number of Holes Water is in Play: 7
Shotlink: No
Streak finder: No edge to be had ... Holes 17-18-1 all have a birdie rate over 18%, Holes 9-10-11 have a lower average score than Holes 17-18-1 thanks to Hole 11 being the 3rd easiest on the course.
Par 3 (4): Average distance -- 195 yards
- Take your medicine: four holes had a 70% par rate or higher and they were all Par 3's
Par 4 (10): Average distance -- 415 yards
- Get your scoring in early: the three easiest Par 4's all come on the front (Holes 1-4-9)
Par 5 (4): Average distance -- 533 yards
- The four easiest holes on the course with consecutive holes (5-6) owning a higher eagle rate than bogey rate
Past Winners
2023: Jon Rahm -27
2022 Hudson Swafford -23
2021: Si Woo Kim -23
2020: Andrew Landry -26
2019: Adam Long -26
2023: Jon Rahm (-27, one clear of Davis Thompson)
Posted 65 or better in each of the first 3 rounds, giving him enough breathing room. His 68 on Sunday nearly allowed Xander Schauffele come back from an 8-stroke deficit (shot 62).
-Experience: Top 15 in his 3 trips prior (included a 2018 win)
-2023 season as a whole: Rahm was 7th best in SG:APP
2022: Hudson Swafford (-23, two clear of Tom Hoge)
- A 64 on Sunday was his best round of the tournament and allowed him to pick up 4 strokes on Hoge
- He was the best putter from 25+ feet in the event
-Experience: 3 tries at this event prior to the win ... 65-MC-MC
2021: Si Woo Kim (-23, one clear of Patrick Cantlay)
A 64 on Sunday was enough to get him home on a day that saw the top of the board shine (Cantlay shot 61 and Cam Davis match Kim with a 64, all three of those golfers saved their best round for Sunday).
-Experience: 40th in his AmEx prior, posted a 9th place finish in his first appearance
-2021 season as a whole: Kim proved to be the best ARG player on Tour
Course/Tournament Notes
Historically, stacking La Quinta and the Nicklaus Course for single-round showdown provided an easier path to green screens. But over the past few years, the Stadium Course started to play just as easy. Now, while low scores are available at all three tracks, there are far more landmines to cripple your lineup at the Stadium Course with over 90 bunkers and seven holes with water hazards spread across the grounds, couple with the tiny greens.
In 2021, the Stadium Course had the fifth-toughest greenside bunkers of any course during the season (42%), while the Nicklaus Course was the third most difficult at 40%. The baseline good score comes from La Quintal however, all three course can generate hilariously low scores if players are hitting GIRs.
The forced layups, a common trait of Pete Dye designs, have the Stadium Course posting an average drive of 273 yards — seven yards shorter than the average PGA TOUR event. The Stadium Course also sees the fewest drives over 300 yards during the season at just 10%. As a result, the Stadium Course historically rates among the lowest in hit green percentage on second shots into Par 5s.
Not to say bombers won’t have success in the desert. Rahm, Vegas and Swafford all have victories over the past decade. But, where bombers have a distinct advantage at some courses — much like last week’s Sony Open — the power advantage off the tee is mitigated this week. Hence, Si Woo, Landry, Long, Dufner, Haas, Gay and Wilson all hoisting novelty checks in their careers. This has opened the American Express up to extreme long shots winning every other year. However, with this strong of a field this seems looks a lot less likely. But we’ve already had two triple digit winners to start 2024, and this is a FUCKING PUTTING CONTEST, after all.
With prevalent water and sand at the Stadium Course and an extra round at the Stadium Course, finding the fairway becomes critical, despite not having one definitive prototypical skill set to target. Simply sorting by fairways gained can help guide you in the proper direction, but that won’t tell the entire story. Bombers will inherently see their accuracy increase over their yearly baseline as they won’t be hitting as many drivers off the tee, and if they are wayward with the big stick, at least they’ll be closer to the hole for an easier recovery if the ball stays out of the hazards.
Since 2020, the field has made birdie or better 27% of the time when in the fairway at the Stadium Course, the highest Birdie or Better percentage from the fairway of any tournament on TOUR. It’s the only course with a Birdie or Better percentage from inside 125 yards greater than 30%. And, if you missed the fairway, as long as you weren’t in a hazard of any kind, it didn’t limit scoring too much. The field averaged 35-feet out of the rough, marking the closest Rough Proximity of any course. From the rough, at the top end, players made birdie or better 22% of the time on the Stadium Course in 2020.
Scoring on Par 5s is essential. It’s pretty simple for the entire field, though. Since 2012, scoring on Par 5s at the American Express has been the easiest of any event on the PGA TOUR, playing more than 3,000 strokes under par than the next closest event.
Also, because the greens shade on the smaller end, three-putts are rarer at PGA West than most venues. Only one course had a lower three-putt percentage than the Stadium Course (Harbour Town GL/1.32%). Theoretically, this should help the bad putters. But since the greens are smaller, it likely benefits the bad putter who actually has a good short game. Since a lot of those lengthy putts that would normally turn into three-jacks would now just not be on the green.
That only applies to the Stadium Course and La Quinta, however. The putting surfaces at the Nicklaus Course are actually quite large.
2023 Smallest Avg. Greens by sq. ft.
3,500 – Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach)
3,700 – Harbour Town (RBC Heritage)
4,300 – TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude)
4,500 – Albany (Hero World Challenge)
4,500 – Oak Hill (PGA Championship)
4,773 – La Quinta CC (American Express)
5,000 – PGA West Stadium (American Express)
5,000 – Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance)
5,000 – Muirfield Village (the Memorial)
5,000 – Colonial CC (Charles Schwab)
5,000 – TPC River Highlands (Travelers)
For years, the putting surfaces were officially listed as Bermudagrass, despite it being dormant at this time of year with Poa being what the field is actually putting on. They’ve actually officially changed that in 2024 on the course info sheet. The greens are overseeded with either Ryegrass or Poa Trivialis and historically, they run on the slower side of average; the Nicklaus Course ranked inside the top five of courses with the fewest three-putts in 2019, 2020, and 2022
Only 4 players have won in their tournament debut: Adam Long (2019), Jhonny Vegas (2011), Charley Hoffman (2007), Arnold Palmer (1960).
Of the players in the 2024 American Express field Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay, Si Woo Kim, Tony Finau, and Adam Hadwin have gained the most total strokes over the past five years.
Of course, it can’t go unmentioned that this is a Pete Dye track. So, here are the SG: Total leaders on Pete Dye courses over their past 24 rounds:
Stats & Info c/o Fantasy National
Random Other Notes
NOTE: All SG Number refer to the Stadium Course ONLY. There is no shot link at LQ or NC
More on the Stadium Course
Par 4 distance is all over the place
3 measure under 375
2 measure 375-405
Other 5 are all over 435
Down the stretch, length and consistency will be important
Hole 15: 2nd longest Par 4 (468)
Hole 16: Longest hole on the course (600)
Hole 17: 165-yard Par 3
Hole 18: 3rd toughest hole last season
Four of the six toughest holes are Hole 13 or later
Past winners
2022 Hudson Swafford: 6.4 strokes gained putting allowed him to win despite being a negative in bogey avoidance
2021 Si Woo Kim: 2.2 strokes better T2G than anyone else, 5th in Proximity in the 75-100-yard bucket
2020 Andrew Landry: Top 12 in both SG:T2G and SG:P, led the field in Good Drives Gained
2019 Adam Long: Top 6 in proximity gained from 75-100 and 125-150
2018 Jon Rahm: Led the field in driving, 4th best in Proximity Gained from over 200 yards
2017 Hudson Swafford: 5th in both driving distance and good drives
Past 6 champions have a combined 1.6 strokes LOST around the green
2022 Notes
Six of the top-10 finishers either lost strokes putting or around the green (you just can’t lose in both spots. Joseph Bramlett was the highest finisher to do that and he came in at T-33)
Each of the top-8 finishers gained strokes putting in that 10-15 foot window (six of those eight lost strokes from 20-25 feet and six of them lost strokes beyond 25 feet … four of them lost strokes in both of those categories)
Similarly in 2021 … 12 of the top 15 gained in that 10-15 foot range (11 of them lost strokes in at least one of the 20-25 foot or 25+ foot range)
Five of the top-6 finishers in SG:OTT cashed top-15 paychecks (Swafford won without doing so, he actually lost ground off the tee, but ran pure with the putter, +6.4 strokes)
Nine of the top-13 finishers gained distance (doesn’t have to be much at all, but an edge on the field makes everything a little easier)
Nine of the top 15 in 2021 gained distance
PICKS/BETS
Taylor Montgomery (60/1) — We got the bizarro Montgomery at the Sony Open. He crushed with his irons and merely broke even on greens. That’s two stars in a row he’s gained strokes on approach — albeit repeated by almost two months — which is the first time he’s accomplished that since the 2002 Fortinet and Sanderson Farms. The AMEX is enssenuiatllty a putting contest, so decent irons combined with his penchant for going nuclear with the putter is a perfect mix at an event which should have easier pins because of the Pro-Am format. In his past 14 events, Montgomery’s gained over six strokes putting four times, while averaging +2.6 per event over his last 20 starts.
Nick Taylor (125; 5 Places) — The number is bad and will be crushed asap. So get on it if you want it. I’d expect Taylor to close sub 75/1 after finished third in approach at Sony, gaining almost 4 strokes over the weekend.
Seamus Power (125; 5 Places) — Sorting through his results (and stats) little points to the Irishman at PGA West. But there was a noticeable swing in his T2G numbers at the Sony combined with his solid track record at The AMEX which has me taking the flier at 200/1. After closing the playoffs disastrous, Power took the winter off to rehab an injury and returned at Kapalua equally as miserable. In his three starts previous to Sony he lost an average 7.2 Tee-to-Green. Being the second worst player of anyone who made the cut a week ago shouldn’t be a green light, he was almost all putting woes. Power actually gained 5.2 strokes T2G while dropping over nine with the putter. It could just be a minor blip, but if he was in any sort of form he’d be in the 75/1 range.
Glad I spent so much time on a Power write up. He pulled out Monday afternoon. And, no, that’s not an effective form of contraceptive. In his spot, I’m going with #DryJanuary narrative of Kirk and Grayson and taking a 400/1 Harrison Endycott with 5 places. I did a Top 20 at +800 too.
I’m still undecided on what to do at the at the top. I think one or two of Tom Kim, Sungjae, or Min WOO makes it. But I’m also digging Wyndy C and Chris Kirk as well. It’s still early and there’s no need to pounce just to make a bet. Thursday’s a long way off.
— PM